Vermont Week Ahead: A Very Quiet Winter Gets A Little More Exciting

After some cold, blustery snow showers during the
first half of Sunday, the weather turned quite nice
in the afternoon, as you can see in this view of
my St. Albans, Vermont back yard. 

Vermont has enjoyed a really drama-free winter so far, with temperature extremes lacking, no big giant storms to speak of, and modest snowfall.  

The lack of scary weather is due to continue this week, but at least it will be a little more interesting than it's been

The week features gusty winds, maybe some snow squalls, some sharp temperature changes, and perhaps, a somewhat more substantial storm a week from now. Maybe.

We got a good start Sunday with some variable weather.   A few heavy snow squalls roamed around in the morning and afternoon, dumping a quick inch or two of snow in some places, while leaving nearby areas with just flurries.

Then it turned into a party sunny, mild, breezy day. 

If you like variety, you liked Sunday.

Snow Deficit  

Coming up, it doesn't look like there will be huge amounts of new snow.  So the Vermont  snow deficit in all but the northern Green Mountains of Vermont.

It seems like it's constantly snowed this month with little to show for it, except again in the mountains. 

At least a trace of snow has fallen in Burlington on 20 out of 26 days we've had so far this month, but total snowfall in January  has been 11.3 inches, which is 6.4 inches below normal through the 26th.

Meanwhile, there is 58 inches of snow at the stake near the summit of Mount Mansfield, which is actually a little above the average for this date, which is 47 inches. 

This coming week, Burlington will probably add just a little to its seasonal snow total, while the Green Mountains once again get some decent, but not overwhelming new snows.  

Let's take it day by day:

Today: Warm-ish on paper, but as I mentioned in a post Sunday morning, the wind will add some bite to the air. High wind warnings and advisories are up for northern New York with gusts there in the 50 to 60 mph range in spots.

It won't be so bad in Vermont, as the gusts should hold to near 40 mph in the Champlain Valley and probably no more than 30 to 35 most other places. Temperatures in the valley should make it into the 30s in many of the valleys like they did Sunday. 

Tonight: A little drama as a cold front comes blasting through. It will probably have some snow squalls along it, or at least some pretty heavy snows showers.  Accumulations won't be all that much, since none these will last long. 

National Weather Service snow prediction map from
today to Thursday morning. One again the Green
Mountains will receive a few to several inches of
sow while the valleys only receive a little. 

Most of us will see an inch or less, with locally higher amounts, especially in the mountains and in northern New York will the snow squalls will have more heft than they will in Vermont. It'll get gusty again, with some blowing snow around to make things even more fun.

In Vermont, the best chances for bursts of heavy snow are between midnight and 4 a.m. 

Tuesday

Those snow squalls late Monday night will probably mess up the Tuesday morning drive to work. 

Temperatures that will start out near 30 at midnight will crash before dawn breaks, making any water and slush on the roads freeze. Plan to take a little extra time getting to work or school.

It'll be windy and cold all day with highs probably not getting out of the upper single numbers to low teens with wind chills definitely below zero.

Tuesday Night//Wednesday

We get a little Alberta clipper coming through. It'll be a compact little thing, but maybe a decent snow producer in some areas. If it goes right over Vermont, places just to the north of the storm track could see maybe one to four inches of fluff. Once again, the Green Mountains would get a little more than that.  

Wednesday Night/Saturday

Cold, but the computer models are trying to back off a little on the expected chill. Instead of nighttime temperatures solidly below zero, the forecasts have nights getting to near zero, with single numbers above zero in the Champlain Valley.

Highs are now forecast to be in the teens to low 20s through the period, instead of squarely under 10 degrees. So that's good, at least in my opinion! 

Beyond Saturday

As is often the case, models are all over the place as to what will happen a week or so from now. Some of them are suggesting storminess but it's iffy.

Up until Sunday morning, most of the computer models had the storm that finally brought rain to southern California surging some warm air northward, giving us mixed precipitation or rain by Sunday.

Then the models trended cooler, so maybe snow? Then they trended south, meaning the storm could miss us entirely?  The models will keep flipping on this, so watch this space. 

The weather pattern will stay on the active side, so there might be some sort of second storm toward next Monday.