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| The National Weather Service first guess forecast on a fast moving nor'easter that could blast past New England Sunday night just as Arctic air arrives. This is highly subject to change, but northwestern areas shouldn't get much, but a winter storm watch has been issued for far southern Vermont Stay tuned for updates. |
The big headline is the risk of a bit of a snowstorm later Sunday, Sunday night and early Monday that we weren't planning on.
More on that in a bit.
First, we have something of a stormy day in store Saturday, at least in the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York. There won't be much rain or snow to speak of, but we do have a good blast of wind coming in.
Everyone will get windy, but the gusts will really funnel up the Champlain Valley. A wind advisory has been issued Grand Isle County, and the western halves of Chittenden and Franklin counties.
In those areas, gusts could reach 50 mph. maybe even 55 mph on the immediate shores of Lake Champlain. The strongest winds will probably hit between 6 a.m. and 2 p.m.
That means the risk of scattered power outages and a few downed trees. It won't be a widespread problem, but if you're in the Champlain Valley, charge your devices just in case.
It'll also make for some interesting times on Lake Champlain and its shoreline. There's ice out there on parts of the lake. The wind will probably break off some of the ice and send it northward.
I'd probably avoid ice fishing Saturday as pieces can break off and you could be trapped on those ice floes as they float away. There could also locally be some ice shoves on south facing shores, so there's a chance a few docks, beaches, and boathouses could suffer a bit of damage.
Also, the wind will really pick up before temperatures get above freezing, so splash over from the expected big waves could freeze on roads near the shore. I'm thinking the Route 2 causeway between Milton and South Hero and other roads on the islands.
By afternoon, temperatures should be above freezing, so that would end the freezing spray problem.
There will probably be some strong winds up in the Green Mountains, too, so some of the ski resort lifts might be subject to lift holds
SURPRISE SNOW?
A few rain or snow showers will come ahead and along a cold front later Saturday and Saturday night. This won't really be a big deal.
High temperatures Sunday will come right after midnight and fall thereafter as the Arctic air blasts in
As this is happening, a new storm will form Sunday in the Carolinas, along the southern end of the Arctic cold front.
We've known for days this was going to happen, but most indicators predicted this would head out to sea well south of New England, pushed away by the blast of frigid air.
But the core of the icy blast of North Pole air is initially plunging almost due south into the middle of the United States. That's helping bend steering currents on the East Coast more south to north, at least briefly, opening a window for the storm to race right into southeastern New England.
That would push snow right into central and western parts of New England. Maybe. The computer models are still arguing with each other on ths.
That argument means there's still debate as to how far northwest the heavier snow will get. But current forecasts have that snow much further to the northwest than predictions just 24 hours ago.
For now, it's all enough to prompt a winter storm watch for far southern Vermont, where seven or more inches could accumulate between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. That part of the state has mostly missed out on the "flurried to death" weather regime that has brought pretty much daily light snows to the northern part of the state.
So they'll finally get a real snow cover in places like Bennington, Brattleboro and perhaps White River Junction.
At this point the snow from this fast-moving nor'easter looks like it should spread over all of Vermont, but for now, accumulations look really light in northwestern Vermont.
Stay tuned on forecast updates, as they will surely change one way or another as the event draws near.
It'll be a cold storm, with temperatures probably near 10 degrees while the snow falls.
The storm will zip by and be out of our hair by Monday afternoon. It will become a powerful storm in the Canadian Maritimes, but that won't be our problem here in Vermont.
Instead, we'll share in the Arctic air with most of the rest of the Lower 48 Monday through Wednesday. Daily highs will be in the single numbers to low teens, and nights will be below zero.
Make sure you have enough fuel in your tank for home heating. Also top off the gas in your car if it's not an EV, as things go better in frigid weather with a full tank of gas.
This still looks like a pretty short fused cold snap. Temperatures will remain a bit cold after Wednesday, but definitely nothing unreasonable as high temperatures go into the 20s from Thursday onward.
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