Thursday Evening Storm Forecast: Wind Forecast Worsens A Bit For Big Storm #2

An uprooted tree leans against a St. Albans, Vermont house
after Wednesday's wind storm. I haven't checked to see
whether this tree has been removed. But it's an example of
how incomplete repairs from Wednesday's storm
could mean additional damage with Saturday 
morning's expected second big wind storm

 We're having a relatively snowy afternoon across much of Vermont today. It won't amount to much but it's enough to make you want to slow down for the afternoon commute. 

Main highways don't look terrible, but there is a bit of snow, slush and ice on them, so you'll want to be careful. The snow will stop tonight, with almost all of us seeing an inch or less. Mountains could come in with a couple inches. 

Friday is the calm before Big Storm #2.  You'll see sun fade behind increasing clouds, with seasonable temperatures. Especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, you'll want to drag out your LED candles and flashlights again.

THE STORM ITSELF 

Just like Wednesday's storm, the main threat is the wind, followed by problems with snow and mixed precipitation. 

First, the wind:

As I expected, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington has expanded the high wind watches. Instead of the high wind alert just being limited to the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains, the watch now covers all of Rutland and Addison counties in southwestern Vermont. It also covers all of Lamoille and Orleans counties,

The high wind watch has also been expanded into eastern Franklin County. All these areas were hard hit early Wednesday, so this will be a problem. I'm sure other areas of Vermont will go under at least a wind advisory as we get closer to the event. 

If the current forecast holds, peak winds would  come a little later Saturday morning than then did during Storm #1 Peak winds this time look like they'll hit very roughly between 2 and 9 a.m. Saturday. 

There's a couple wrinkles with this new wind storm that you oughta know about. 

First of all, some trees have been weakened by the strong winds early Wednesday. I noticed some trees in St. Albans, for instance, didn't topple, but they're now leaning toward the northwest, as if they've begun the process of being uprooted.

Since the wind will come out of the same direction Friday night, this Big Storm #2 might finish the job and blow these trees over.  Especially where there's already a lot of tree damage from Wednesday. 

There are also damaged roofs, siding and other structural problems that haven't been fixed yet that could get worse with the new storm. Even if peak gusts end up being a little lower than in the last storm.

Power lines have been hastily repaired, and might not be as securely installed as they might otherwise be. (Power companies often make quick fixes to get electricity flowing, then come back, and make the fixes better). There was still about 3,500 homes and business in Vermont without power as of 4 p.m. today, says VTOutages.org.  Crews will be using tomorrow's break in the weather to rush remaining repairs.

Another thing: While Big Storm #2 looks like it will be a little weaker than Big Storm #1 was, there is a still chance for winds to be quite strong, going to 70 mph or more in a few areas. The winds get more intense when there's a lull in the precipitation, which is what happened for two or three hours early Wednesday morning. 

It looks like there might be a bigger lull in the snow and mixed precipitation and rain in the early morning hours of Saturday, which might encourage more wind.

Like the last time, the most snow will fall in the mountains.  Higher elevations should see three to seven inches, as it looks now, with valleys getting anything from a half inch to three inches.

By the time it gets warm enough for snow and mixed precipitation to go over to rain early Wednesday, there won't be much more moisture coming. So any rain we do get still looks like it won't set off  any flooding to speak of.

The weather pattern still looks like it will turn noticeably colder, and possibly stay active next week. I don't see a Big Storm #3 coming at this time, but there could be some storminess next week if all the little disturbances swirling around North America line up just right. 

Blizzard Over, But Much Of Nation, Including Vermont, Faces New Wide-Ranging Winter Storm

Some damage to trees from freezing rain in Alburgh,
Vermont in January, 2020.  The Green Mountain State
is at risk for a winter storm toward Thursday that could
drop a bunch of snow, rain, ice or all of the above. 

The remarkable well-forecasted Blizzard of '22 has wrapped up in New England, and we're just left with another frigid, below zero morning. 

The snow of course missed Vermont, but the icy air sure didn't. This was the 15th morning that Burlington, Vermont has gotten to zero or below this month. 

 That's the most in a single month since 17 such days happened in February, 2015. The most zero or subzero days in one month was 23 in January, 1970, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

Coming up, we have a warmup and a potentially messy, snarly possibility of a winter storm. More on that in a bit. 

First some final blizzard stats: 

The most snow I've seen reported from the storm so far is 30.9 inches in Stoughton, Massachusetts, followed closely by 30.4 in Sharon, Mass. and 30 inches in Quincy.  Many reports of more than two feet of snow came in from Massachusetts, especially in the South Shore area.

Boston picked up 23.8 inches of snow, their seventh largest snowstorm on record. It was also Boston's snowiest single January day on record as well.

The storm did verify as an official blizzard in parts of Delaware, New Jersey, Long Island, New York, eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Massachusetts. 

The last of the blizzard warnings in the United States expired in Downeast Maine earlier this morning.  As of 6 a.m., it has already stopped snowing in that neck of the woods.  The most reported snow in Maine was 18 inches at Brunswick. 

Some wags called this New England storm a "blizzicane" considering the several hours of sometimes hurricane force gusts along the coast. Barnstable, Massachusetts reported a gust to 83 mph and there quite a few gusts of 70 mph or more along the New England coast. 

Now that the Blizzard of '22 is over in New England, attention is turning to a new winter storm. 

NEW STORM

The National Weather Service is already gearing up to warn people of yet another nasty winter storm that will affect a broad area from Texas to New England during the middle of the week. This one will cover much more real estate than our dearly departed Blizzard of '22 did.

Worse, it will contain a wide variety of weather, including heavy snow, a bunch of freezing rain, possible flooding, a chance at severe thunderstorms, high winds and bitter cold, depending upon where you are. 

This won't be a powerful, deep concentrated storm like the one New England just had.  Instead, the next winter storm will be the child of a strong, warm ridge of high pressure off the East Coast, a feed of rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and a sharp Arctic blast heading southward through the middle of the nation. 

By Wednesday, a slow moving cold front will extend from somewhere in or near northern New England to Texas. One or more storms will ride northeastward along this front, making full use of the deep Gulf of Mexico moisture. 

This far out, the devil is in the details as to who gets what and how bad. But this is a classic setup for a damaging ice storm somewhere.  At this point, that seems most likely in a band from northeast Texas, through Arkansas to southern Illinois, but that picture could shift north or south. 

Northwest of that ice would be a heavy snowstorm. People southeast of the ice zone could see some flooding. 

Also, as the storm eventually works its way into the Northeast, rain and thawing atop all that blizzard snow could also result in a flood.

Meanwhile, Texas can expect an Arctic cold snap that might not be as destructive as the disaster last February, but will still be a hard test for the state's rickety electrical infrastructure.

VERMONT IMPACTS

It's unclear what this new storm will do to the Green Mountain State, but it will probably be a lot more than the blizzard that missed us Saturday.

Depending on where the stalled front sets up, we could see anything from a heavy snowstorm, to another round of ugly freezing rain, or just warm, plain rain that could cause localized flooding especially if the rain breaks up ice in the rivers.

From this vantage point, the best chance of a snowstorm is north of Route 2 and the best chance of a warm rain is south of Route 4 on Thursday. Some places in Vermont could get a bunch of freezing rain, which isn't good. 

That's just a wild stab in the dark at this point. Vermont is going to be very close to some super warm air just to the south and some Arctic air just to the north. With that set up, it's impossible to tell at this point where in Vermont the cold air might invade, or where the warmth might filter in. 

We'll just have to update as we go along. Expect benign weather with a welcome warming trend through Wednesday. Then, all bets are off.