Thursday Evening Storm Forecast: Wind Forecast Worsens A Bit For Big Storm #2

An uprooted tree leans against a St. Albans, Vermont house
after Wednesday's wind storm. I haven't checked to see
whether this tree has been removed. But it's an example of
how incomplete repairs from Wednesday's storm
could mean additional damage with Saturday 
morning's expected second big wind storm

 We're having a relatively snowy afternoon across much of Vermont today. It won't amount to much but it's enough to make you want to slow down for the afternoon commute. 

Main highways don't look terrible, but there is a bit of snow, slush and ice on them, so you'll want to be careful. The snow will stop tonight, with almost all of us seeing an inch or less. Mountains could come in with a couple inches. 

Friday is the calm before Big Storm #2.  You'll see sun fade behind increasing clouds, with seasonable temperatures. Especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, you'll want to drag out your LED candles and flashlights again.

THE STORM ITSELF 

Just like Wednesday's storm, the main threat is the wind, followed by problems with snow and mixed precipitation. 

First, the wind:

As I expected, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington has expanded the high wind watches. Instead of the high wind alert just being limited to the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains, the watch now covers all of Rutland and Addison counties in southwestern Vermont. It also covers all of Lamoille and Orleans counties,

The high wind watch has also been expanded into eastern Franklin County. All these areas were hard hit early Wednesday, so this will be a problem. I'm sure other areas of Vermont will go under at least a wind advisory as we get closer to the event. 

If the current forecast holds, peak winds would  come a little later Saturday morning than then did during Storm #1 Peak winds this time look like they'll hit very roughly between 2 and 9 a.m. Saturday. 

There's a couple wrinkles with this new wind storm that you oughta know about. 

First of all, some trees have been weakened by the strong winds early Wednesday. I noticed some trees in St. Albans, for instance, didn't topple, but they're now leaning toward the northwest, as if they've begun the process of being uprooted.

Since the wind will come out of the same direction Friday night, this Big Storm #2 might finish the job and blow these trees over.  Especially where there's already a lot of tree damage from Wednesday. 

There are also damaged roofs, siding and other structural problems that haven't been fixed yet that could get worse with the new storm. Even if peak gusts end up being a little lower than in the last storm.

Power lines have been hastily repaired, and might not be as securely installed as they might otherwise be. (Power companies often make quick fixes to get electricity flowing, then come back, and make the fixes better). There was still about 3,500 homes and business in Vermont without power as of 4 p.m. today, says VTOutages.org.  Crews will be using tomorrow's break in the weather to rush remaining repairs.

Another thing: While Big Storm #2 looks like it will be a little weaker than Big Storm #1 was, there is a still chance for winds to be quite strong, going to 70 mph or more in a few areas. The winds get more intense when there's a lull in the precipitation, which is what happened for two or three hours early Wednesday morning. 

It looks like there might be a bigger lull in the snow and mixed precipitation and rain in the early morning hours of Saturday, which might encourage more wind.

Like the last time, the most snow will fall in the mountains.  Higher elevations should see three to seven inches, as it looks now, with valleys getting anything from a half inch to three inches.

By the time it gets warm enough for snow and mixed precipitation to go over to rain early Wednesday, there won't be much more moisture coming. So any rain we do get still looks like it won't set off  any flooding to speak of.

The weather pattern still looks like it will turn noticeably colder, and possibly stay active next week. I don't see a Big Storm #3 coming at this time, but there could be some storminess next week if all the little disturbances swirling around North America line up just right.