Coldest Vermont Morning In Years; Winter Storm Causing All Sorts Of Problems, Including For Us

The latest snow accumulation forecast from the National
Weather Service in South Burlington.  Still subject to change
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see.

 I know the big headline is the upcoming storm, but since it's still so cold out as I write this, we should begin there.  

For perspective yesterday and this morning were the coldest it's been in Vermont in a couple to a few years but we're nowhere close to setting records. It's just been so warm in recent years, we're not used to this.

Yesterday's high temperature in Burlington was zero, the first time a day has failed to get above zero since January 6, 2018.  The low this morning there was at least 11 below, the coldest since January 22,, 2019.  But the record low for the date is 21 below, so you can see we weren't even close.

Unfortunately, the National Weather Service system of collecting some reports from colder locales was down early this morning. I do expect reports later, but some of the colder hollows I'm pretty confident got to 30 below this  morning.  Brrr!

THE STORM

As expected, our winter storm has already caused a lot of problems in the South.  Those issues will spread up the Eastern Seaboard tonight and tomorrow. 

An ice storm is in full swing in parts of interior North and South Carolina.  Only a fool would get in their car and drive in these areas now, and they'll end up with enough ice to bring down some trees and power lines. 

The heaviest snow will go up through extreme western North Carolina, on up through West Virginia, western Pennsylvania, western New York and southwestern Quebec. We in Vermont will still get our share of some snow, more on that in a bit. 

South of the storm, tornado warnings rang out along the west coast of Florida this morning.  I don't know yet whether any twisters actually touched down. 

As the strengthening storm roars northeastward parallel to but a bit inland from the coast, it'll take strong winds and coastal flooding along with it. Coastal flood advisories and warnings and wind alerts extend along the Eastern Seaboard from the Carolinas all the way up through Downeast Maine.  Some of the flooding could get especially damaging on Long Island, New York. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

Given that the center of this storm is still forecast to go right over or at least very near Vermont Monday, the forecast is complicated, and we'll need to expect rapid changes in the weather tomorrow. 

For those of you who don't want to get into the weeds of this, the short story is a big thump of snow, then some gusty winds, then a bit of a mix, then more snow, then cold. 

Now the details:

Prepare to either work at home tomorrow or expect a nasty, snowy morning commute. People in wind prone areas should also charge their devices as there will probably be some power outages. The Monday afternoon commute will be no picnic, either. 

Note that the following scenario, as laid out by the National Weather Service office in South Burlington won't go exactly as I'll describe. There still probably will be a few shifts in the forecast. But this will give a pretty good idea how your Monday will go. 

This whole thing will start with a good and hard thump of snow.

The snow will probably start around or just after midnight Monday in far southern Vermont, reach the Champlain Valley and central Vermont by perhaps 2 or 3 a.m., then the Northeast Kingdom by around 4 a.m. or so. 

This period of snow will be ahead of a strong warm front.  It won't last all that long, probably tapering off pretty fast sometime in the mid-morning, depending on the forward speed of the warm front and where you are. But it will snow hard, and in some places, really, really hard.  

Snow fall rates will be a good one inch or more per hour. East facing slopes of the southern Green Mountains could see it snow at a clip of up to three inches per hour at times, which is pretty intense. 

You can see why the Monday morning commute will suck. 

While it's snowing, it will be warming up very rapidly, and the snow will start to get wetter and heavier as time goes on, especially in southern Vermont. Which sets us up for the next phase of the storm. 

Once that heaviest portion of that initial heavy thump of snow passes, strong winds aloft associated with this storm will be pulled down to near the surface along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, and in parts of the Northeast Kingdom downwind from New Hampshire's White Mountains.

Especially in the southern Greens, in towns like Mendon, Shrewsbury and Wells, the wind gusts could be damaging. Combine with some heavy snow on the trees this will almost surely cause power outages. 

The strong winds will spread northward along the western slopes during the day.  This period of strong winds along the western slopes will only last a few hours, too, but that's long enough to do some damage.

During this period, there will be just some light snow, sleet or even rain in southern Vermont valleys around as the warm push peaks.

Then the storm heads north into Quebec during the mid to late afternoon, it'll all go back over to snow. The snow could briefly come down fairly hard at times as the band of very heavy snow over western New York finally moves east towards us while weakening. A few more inches of snow could come down later Monday afternoon and evening, especially north.

Overall, the National Weather Service is forecasting four to eight inches of snow, but as little as two or three inches in parts of the Northeast Kingdom in the shadows of the White Mountains. The eastern slopes of the southern and central Green Mountains could get a solid foot of snow in some spots.

Gusty north winds and falling temperatures will create blowing snow and make cleanup a little difficult Monday night and Tuesday. 

The weather pattern features repeated blasts of Arctic air through the end of January.  It's unclear whether there will be any more East Coast storms during the rest of the month that would give Vermont much more snow.  We'll need to wait and see on that, I guess.