Big Nor'Easter Almost Definitely A Miss For Vermont; Eastern New England Still Target

The thin snow cover, about five inches, on my property
in St. Albans on Tuesday. It's looking unlikely that
the expected big nor'easter on Saturday will add any
snow cover for the this part of Vermont. 

I'll get into the updates on the nor'easter in a sec, but I have to acknowledge another impressively cold morning in and around Vermont.  

Island Pond got down to at least 35 below early this morning, which at least ties for the chilliest reading of the winter in the Green Mountain State.  Most everyone else in Vermont was in the teens and 20s below this morning.

The way things are shaping up, this morning and last Saturday will pretty likely - but not definitely - be the coldest spells this entire winter. We have more cold weather coming up, but it doesn't look like it will be that frigid again for awhile.

Now, that nor'easter.  As usual with this type of storm,  the computer models have been "windshield wipering" with its path, sometimes taking the storm a little further offshore, others bringing it a little closer. 

At this point, things are consistently pointing to a nothing burger for Vermont, aside from gusty north winds, a nasty wind chill and maybe some light snow in southeastern Vermont on Saturday. 

There's still a slight chance we could get a surprise hit, as a small number of models blitz Vermont with snow. But as of this Thursday morning it's looking pretty doubtful we'll join in the "snow fun." 

That leaves us with the question as to how extensively this thing will battered eastern New England.  As the National Weather Service in Boston notes, a lot will depend on how a dip in the jet stream aligns itself in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys tomorrow. 

A sharper dip would bring the storm a little closer to the coast, less sharp, it would be a little more offshore.  In any event, this will be a rapidly strengthening and powerful storm as it passes by New England Saturday. 

Either way, it seems like a lock that at least some of eastern and perhaps central New England will get a lot of snow out of this.  High winds and coastal flooding are also going to be a problem. How bad those two issues will get will depend largely on how close to the coast the storm ultimately gets. 

We still have some questions as to how far west the heavy snow reaches on Long Island, and will it reach to near New York City and the Mid-Atlantic States.

For now winter storm watches hug the coast from Virginia, on up through New Jersey and the New York City area, and then roughly into the southeastern third of New England. 

By the way, after this goes by and another shot of frigid air arrives, it's beginning to look like we back here in Vermont could get our first real thaw since New Year's Eve.  Temperatures could reach the 40s Wednesday and Thursday.

A weather system accompanying this warmth appears to want to give us rain toward Thursday, so Vermont's snow drought will continue on.