Saturday Morning Vermont Chill, And Unwelcome Changes To Storm Forecast

An early crack at predicted snow accumulations from 
the National Weather Service in South Burlington. 
Most of the heavier snow goes toward New York. 
After an initial thump of snow, Vermont faces 
a good chance of mixed precipitation. 

 The wind chill as I got up early this Saturday morning was right where forecasters said they would be. In other words, ridiculous.  

Actual temperatures were in the upper single digits below zero in the "warmer" Banana Belt communities to the teens below in most of the rest of the state. Wind chills were solidly in the 30s below zero.  Just stay indoors. 

I'm SO glad I'm working from home at the moment, and my only exposure to this insane cold is when I let the dogs out.  Trust me, they don't stay out long in this weather. 

Only slight improvements will go on today as the wind just very slowly subsides and temperatures struggle to reach highs within a few degrees of zero.  It'll stay below zero across most of northern Vermont outside the Champlain Valley. 

Tonight will be just as cold as last night, as we get back into the teens below zero. At least the wind won't be blowing so much, though. 

STORM UPDATE

Before it gets here, the well-advertised storm is going to cause a lot of havoc in the South.  Heavy snow and ice is still in the forecast from Arkansas to the Carolinas.  Inland South Carolina faces the prospect of an ice storm, enough to drop trees and power lines, and make highways impassable. 

Then the storm goes up the East Coast, laying down a stripe of heavy snow from the Carolina mountains all the way to western New York Sunday night and Monday.

Yeah, but what about us?  The latest updates have the storm going right over Vermont, or perhaps up the Champlain Valley.  Sounds great, until you realize a storm scoring a direct hit on Vermont is not the type that gives us a ton of snow.  

The heaviest band of snow is usually displaced well to the west of the storm center, which is why western New York and the St. Lawrence Valley, along with places like Ottawa and perhaps the easter suburbs of Toronto are under the gun for up to a foot of snow. 

Along the East Coast, this will be mostly rain, but there will be a risk of storm surge flooding, especially around Long Island and Connecticut.

Here in Vermont, we'll probably get a decent thump of snow early Monday as the approaches.  Moisture riding north on the front side of the storm will rise up and over the cold air we'll have over us, and that will be enough to cause a few hours of decent snowfall.

But the warm air will win out, especially aloft.  Precipitation rates will decrease, but most of the Green Mountain State is beginning to look like it will have a period of light sleet, perhaps a bit of freezing rain or even rain for awhile on Monday. 

The inland track of the storm also gives us a risk of strong winds, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains.  It's not 100 percent clear if very strong winds aloft will be able to mix down to the surface, but they might.  If this happens, there could be a short period of some damaging winds along the western slopes, especially in Rutland County. We'll have to keep an eye on that. 

The rest of us will see some raw east winds during a good portion of the storm. 

As the storm moves into Quebec later Monday, winds will swing around to the northwest, changing everything back to snow.  There might not be much additional accumulation in the valleys, but west slopes of the central and northern Green Mountains could pick up a few more inches Monday night and early Tuesday.

Overall, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is going with total snow accumulation of four to six inches. Eastern slopes of the southern Green Mountains might pick up a little more than that, and parts of the Northeast Kingdom could get a little less.

This scenario of how the storm will play out is still not cast in stone.  There's still a small chance it could jog a little east and give us a bit more snow. Or it could keep trending west and give us a little less. Or there could be other surprises.

But for now, this is the most likely scenario.  It's that type of winter, isn't it. Either it's too cold to enjoy the outdoors, or we're getting ice and schmutz.  It's kind of hard to get a happy medium of powder out there this year.