UPDATE: Increasing Fears Of South Severe Weather

Model simulation of storms this afternoon shows discrete
super cells in Mississippi and possible tornadic circulations
along the main line further west, which spells lots 
of potential trouble. 

UPDATE, 5:30 P.M.

So far, so good.  Not a lot of tornado activity had developed since early afternoon.

Trend lines earlier this afternoon seemed to point toward a really bad afternoon.  So far, super cells ahead of the main line of convection have failed to really get their act together.

So the severe activity has settled down, at least for now.  It's not turning into another December 10.

Things could still develop and turn bad overnight, but so far, the trends are sort of friendly. There will be more severe thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes But all hell is NOT breaking loose. Let's hope that continues:

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Conditions over the South, especially in Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi, were getting more and more worrying as of early afternoon New Year's Day.  

Tornado warnings were firing over Kentucky, the state hit so hard on December 10 with twisters.  One of the warnings went up for Bowling Green, which was it hard on December 10. I don't have any confirmation of whether anything touched down as of this writing. 

The Kentucky tornadoes were along a squall line.  That type of tornado can obviously be dangerous.  This can be even worse if thunderstorms along the line are not one solid wall, but a series of discreet storms, which at least for now seems to be the case.

Along that line as of 1:45 p.m EST, one particularly worrisome tornado warning was southwest of Nashville, heading rapidly toward that city's southern suburbs. We'll see if that develops into anything. Hope not!  

At least one town in Kentucky has already received damage that seems to be consistent with a tornado.

Even worse, perhaps, are tornadoes that form in super cells ahead of the main squall line. There was some question this morning as to whether that would happen or not. Unfortunately, short term computer models and trends on radar indicate those super cells ahead of the main batch of storms want to form.  These "out in front" storms have some potential to create strong tornadoes.

An extreme version of that is what happened back on December 10.

Things could get even more dangerous in northern Alabama and northwest Georgia later. That's because the severe weather won't get there until after dark.  It's harder to see tornadoes coming at you after dark, and people late at night would more likely be sleeping and not hear warnings.

Stay tuned on this developing worrying situation.