Los Angeles Bracing For Scary Christmas Storm

The most severe Christmas storm since at least 1971
looms in the Los Angeles area as atmospheric 
rivers continue to batter the West Coast. 

Perhaps the scariest of the barrage of atmospheric rivers tormenting the West Coast is now targeting the Los Angeles area. 

The heavily populated, sprawling area around Los Angeles, the coast north and south, and the mountains to the east all face torrents of rain and strong, damaging winds. 

In their forecast discussion this morning, the National Weather Service wrote in all caps, that I'll avoid, "This is a very dangerous holiday storm. Anyone traveling on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day will need to exercise extreme caution. Make sure to take the proper action before the storm hits."

The rain is starting today, then turn more intense tonight, and peak tomorrow morning. Rainfall rates during the peak hours of the storm in and near Los Angeles will be somewhere around an inch per hour. 

Total rainfall between now and Christmas in southern California is forecast to be in the four to seven inch range, with locally higher amounts. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has put parts of the L.A area under a rare high risk zone for a "significant  threat of flash flooding, landslides, rock falls and mud slides. The greater than normal travel during the Christmas holiday will likely expose a potentially larger number of people to these life-threatening hazards."

On Tuesday, as light rain began making inroads in Los Angeles County, residents were stacking sandbags and other barriers in Pacific Palisades, Altadena, Malibu and other areas where there were big fire last year. They're hoping debris flows won't outmatch these efforts. Crews were also installing Jersey barriers in hopes of diverting landslides away from vulnerable homes. 

Some debris-prone roads, like Topanga Canyon Boulevard, were closed even before the first drops of rain fell. 

Thousands of people have been told to pack "to go" bags and be ready to evacuate at a moment's notice.  

High winds will complicate this whole mess. In the L.A basin, winds could reach up to 55 mph, and in the foothills and mountains nearby, those winds could reach as high as 80 mph. 

As the soils get soggier and soggier, it'll be easier and easier for the wind to blow trees over. 

The intensity of the storms should wane somewhat by Christmas Day, but scattered downpours will continue to vex the L.A basin.

Further north in California, atmospheric river storms that caused serious flooding in the Sierra Nevada foothills have diminished somewhat. But more rain, sometimes heavy and mixed with thunderstorms, will continue the flood risk.  There's even a low risk of brief spin-up tornadoes with the thunderstorms. 

High winds warnings remain in effect until the afternoon of Christmas Day for a wide area of central and northern California. 

Meanwhile, in the Sierra Nevada, several more feet of snow are expected in the next few days. 

Los Angeles Wildfires In January Might Have Killed Hundreds, Not Two Or Three Dozen

The cataclysmic wildfires in and around Los Angeles
this past January officials killed 30 people, but a 
recent study suggest the real death
toll might have exceeded 400.

Data emerged this summer suggesting the death toll from the intense wildfires in and around Los Angles last January is much higher than official numbers.  

Officially, 30 people died in the conflagration that tore through Alameda, Pacific Palisades, Malibu and other densely populated areas of Los Angeles County. 

But county death records suggest the fires might have claimed an additional 440 lives. 

These weren't people trapped in burning neighborhoods. They were people whose health suffered in the smoky, depressing, dangerous and contaminated atmosphere during and after the conflagration.

As the Washington Post reports, scientists compared deaths in Los Angeles County between January 1 and February 1 with figures from past years, excluding 2020 through 2023 because of the coronavirus pandemic. 

They found this year, 6,371 deaths were recorded in that months span, compared to an expected 5,931 deaths. That leaves 440 more deaths that need explanation. 

A quote from the WaPo article: 

"The findings emphasize how climate-driven disasters can be far deadlier than they initially seem, with ripple effects in the weeks and months after the extreme events. The disasters are linked to lingering environmental damage and social upheaval that result in long-term, dangerous ills for hard-hit communities."

Calculating excess deaths the way they've done with the Los Angeles fires is a good way to capture the complete scope of a disaster. Scientists discover fatalities that weren't a direct result of the catastrophe. The event caused problems that proved fatal to some people, such as crappy air quality or health care disruptions and delays. 

The number of excess deaths from the L.A. fires surprised the researchers, according to the Washington Post. 

Moreover, there might have been additional deaths caused by the wildfire after February 1, when the study ended. 

The obvious next step would be to figure out how these excess deaths occurred. Was it the air pollution?

"That would require combining estimates of who was exposed to how much wildfire smoke with existing estimates of how given level of smoke exposure affects mortality," said Marshall Burke, a professor at the Stanford University Doerr School of Sustainability.

 The fires also left behind potentially cancer-causing contaminants. That could add to the fire mortality in the coming months and years. 

Looking wider, the study of Los Angeles fire deaths raises questions about the real death tolls of other wildfires and different kinds of disasters, such as hurricanes, tornadoes and floods. Additional deaths probably happen after the news cameras are pointed the other way after a disaster ends. 

For instance, other research after the wildfires in Maui, Hawaii in 2023 reached some disturbing conclusions.  

The official death toll in that fire was 102. But suicide and drug overdose rates on Maui skyrocketed in the month after the disaster. Another study showed that half of adults suffered from depression in the months after the Maui fire and 22 percent had decreased lung function. 

As climate change intensifies wildfires, storms, floods and droughts, it'll be important to get a handle on the real death toll associated with these calamities. Growing evidence suggests you're not necessarily safe if you survived the critical hours of the disaster. 

Weather and climate change can kill long after the sun comes back out, the fires are extinguished, the wind dies down and the water recedes. 

California Fires Kept Popping Up, Spreading, But Finally Rain Starting Later Today

A photo from Reuters of the Hughes Fire, another massive
wildfire that broke out in California this week. The Hughes
Fire, thankfully, did not mow down neighborhoods.
Finally, rain is in the Southern California
forecast for this weekend. 

It's been whack-a-mole all week with wildfires breaking out in southern California. 

Meanwhile, millions of people in that region are looking to the skies later today and tonight looking for the promised raindrops. 

More on that in a bit.

THE FIRES

A slew of new fires kept areas near Los Angeles and San Diego seriously rattled Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and kept air quality unhealthy. 

Perhaps the largest of the new blazes, known as the Hughes Fire, covered more than 10,000 acres as it spread rapidly in and near the Santa Clarita Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. It sent thousands of residents fleeing under evacuation orders

So far, I've heard of few, if any houses burned by this fire, which is great news. 

Another fast moving fire prompted evacuations and threatened California State University Channel Islands in Ventura County.  That fire was being gradually tamped down Friday and classes resumed the university after being canceled Thursday.   

Another large fire was burning out of control in San Diego County right near the Mexican border. That fire was initially fast-spreading and erratic, and prompted evacuations, but firefighters had slowed its progress by Friday afternoon. 

It's been another trying week in California, but at least this time, whole neighborhoods have not been wiped out in the new fires so you have to take any good news you can. 

THE RAIN

Miraculously, earlier forecasts of a rainy Southern California weekend have not evaporated. It's still going to rain. 

This won't be any kind of huge storm, as most places in the Los Angeles and San Diego areas should received about a half inch to an inch of rain between now and Monday. 

That is unequivocally awesome news, but of course, this being California, the rain comes with its own risks.

For the vast majority of the southern California, the rain will just wet down tinder dry vegetation, but not be heavy enough to cause any mudslides or flooding.

The problem is where there's been wildfires. It wouldn't take much to set off debris flows in these areas, since the vegetation that held steep hillsides in place is gone. The surface of the soils have been cooked hard by the fires, meaning rainwater can't penetrate, it will just run off downhill, collecting more and more debris along the way. 

It's amazing that the NOAA's Weather Prediction Center felt the need to place a marginal risk of flash flooding through the weekend in southern California areas that have been burning for the past month. But there you go. 

The National Weather Service office in Los Angeles is giving a 10 to 20 percent chance of significant debris flows in recent burn scar areas. Those odds seem low-ish, but are actually pretty high if you consider the grave danger they pose to anybody or any property in the path of these things. 

The hope is the rain will just fall gently and steadily, and not in short, sharp downpours. 

As of this morning, it looks like the region will get a little bit of both styles of rain. It will rain in most places at a rate of something like a tenth of an inch per hour, which isn't a big deal. 

But a very cold pool of air aloft means thunderstorms could easily develop. Under those storms, a half inch to three quarters of an inch of rain could come down within an hour. If that happens over a recent burn area, you're going to get debris flows. 

Even if there are no major debris flows, runoff could spread toxic ash from fire zones into areas not directly affected by the wildfires. 

One last concern: This rain won't get rid of the drought that's developed in California. Worse, this could be a "one and done" storm. Some forecasts have no more rain for southern California in the pipeline for the next few weeks.  Other predictions bring at least a couple more rain storms once we get into early February.  It's a tossup. 

If the storm-free forecasts win out,  things will dry out again and we'll be right back where we've been all month, with wildfires raging once again in and near Los Angeles and San Diego. 

The best bet for southern California is a series of light rain storms coming one after another, without torrential downpours. That's really threading the needle.

Given the weather extremes that California and so many other places have been going through lately, I unfortunately am not betting on the "Goldilocks" scenario of light rains. It will probably be either more drought or torrential downpours. 

 

California Fires Flare In High Winds, But So Far No New Calamities, We Hope. Expected Rain Brings Joy And Worry

Smoke from a wildfire rises perilously close to some
apartment buildings Tuesday in San Diego. Firefighters
were able to put a stop to the fire. One of the apartment
buildings suffered minor damage. 

 It looks like Southern California got through the latest round of strong, dry winds that could have caused more calamitous wildfires not exactly unscathed, but better than it could have been.  

At least so far. The risk is far fro over as new fires broke out Wednesday amid continued gusty winds and arid conditions. 

The dry, strong winds have picked up again today and continue a threat of fast moving wildfires through Thursday morning. 

Numerous brush fires broke out amid the high winds Monday and Tuesday, but they were largely contained because additional firefighters had been staged in the region. 

Firefighters managed to get the upper hand on those fires before they could do much damage.

A worrisome exception might be a fire that broke out this morning in Rancho Bernardo, California, a little northeast of San Diego. At least one person has already been injured in the blaze and evacuations are underway. 

Video shows that fire was burning near a densely populated area. However, latest word as of 2 p.m. EST is that the fire showed signs of being brought under control. 

Another worrisome wildfire just broke out a couple hours before this writing in Castaic, California, near Santa Clarita. It, unfortunately was spreading rapidly amid strong winds and hasty evacuations were ongoing. 

At least two other wildfires broke out in the San Diego area on Tuesday, including one near a shopping mall and a dense collection of apartment buildings on steep hills. Looked dire, but firefighters appear to have defeated that fire, too, It looks like this blaze spread into and damaged one of the apartment buildings.  It appears firefighters saved most of that building, and the damage appeared to be rather minor. 

Near Los Angeles one fire popped up along the 405 in Granada Hills. Another spread through more than 40 acres in Riverside County. An arsonist set a fire in Griffith Park, but crews stopped it before it covered an acre and an arrest was made. 

Southern Californians are looking forward to finally seeing some rain that's in the forecast for the upcoming weekend.

The rain is obviously mostly great news, as it would at least temporarily tamp down the fire threat.  

Overall forecast rainfall amounts aren't expected to be excessively heavy, But a pool of cold air aloft could set off thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. If one of those downpours moves over any steep slopes where one of those massive fires raged this month, you're set up for some horrible debris flows. 

Especially since the fires just barely happened so everything is especially unstable.  The fires also cooked the surface of the soil, making it hard and impermeable to rain.  So the water runs off and as that water rushes downhill, it picks up debris. Whoever is then at the bottom of that hill is thus in real trouble.

Even then, the fire risk isn't over. It looks like southern California will turn rainless again after this weekend and that dry weather should last into February.  

What Started The California Fires? Investigations Continue, But Clues Are Coming In

Photo by Don Griffin in this screen grab from a San
Francisco Chronicle Video shows the wildfire on 
Temescal Ridge near Pacific Palisades early on
January 1. This fire was quickly contained after
scorching about eight acres, 

 The wind has died down in southern California, so firefighters are taking advantage of the weather to at least attempt to gain the upper hand on these cataclysmic blazes. 

Investigations are starting as to what set these fires off in the first place. Some have been easy to solve. 

One fire started amid gusty winds in San Bernardino County, California Wednesday but firefighters managed to quickly stop it after it consumed 30 acres but no houses. 

A man was just as quickly arrested on arson charges with that fire, but as yet, we have no motive.

It might be harder to ascertain what started some of the other, larger fires. 

PALISADES FIRE

The worst of the blazes was the Palisades Fire, and there's tantalizing evidence that this firestorm has its origins with somebody being dumb within the first few hours of the arrival for 2025.

According to the Washington Post and other sources, some idiot set off fireworks in the dry brush on the Temescal Ridge in the Santa Monica Mountains not far from the Skull Rock Trailhead shortly after midnight January 1.  Firefighters responded and put out their blaze before it could get super out of hand. 

The New Year's Day fire covered eight acres and took about four hours to contain. No buildings were damaged.

The start of the huge Pacific Palisades fire in this
photo by Don Griffin, via the San Francisco
Chronicle, seems to show the origin at the about the
same location a the January 1 blaze,

The Palisades Fire started around 10:20 a.m. local time January 7, right around the same spot as the January 1 blaze. 

Experts say it is absolutely possible for a wildfire to reignite up to 10 days, sometimes even more after it was initially extinguished.  

There could have been a hot, smoldering piece of wood that was missed in the New Years Day incident  partly buried under soil or rocks.  

There it sat, until the 80 mph Santa Ana winds hit on January 7.  Blast your annoying leaf blower on a smoldering camp fire (when you're sure you can't start a forest fire!) and see what you get.

It was basically the same thing with the Los Angeles wildfires. 

Per the Washington Post, the timing of the fire's start was bad for another reason. Firefighter were responding to other incidents around Los Angeles when the first 911 calls came in regarding the Palisades Fire. That might have delayed an initial response, but I'd like to see more investigation into that before drawing firm conclusions. 

If there was a delay in getting firefighters to the scene, some procedures will need to be looked at so that doesn't happen again. 

EATON FIRE

The other large fire, the Easton Fire wiped out much of Altadena, California. The cause of this one isn't confirmed by any fire agency either, but the utility Southern California Edison is under the spotlight.

Lawsuits have already been filed against the utility, saying their equipment is to blame. Specifically, the lawsuits allege the fire "ignited because of SCE's failure to de-energize its overhead wires which traverse Eaton Canyon - despite a red flag (particularly dangerous situation) wind warning)." as KTLA reports.

Utilities have taken to cutting power to wind-prone areas when gusts are expected to reach dangerous levels and are combined with high fire hazards. 

For their part, SCE says that the cause of the fire is still under investigation and that winds in the canyons that day weren't strong enough to  reach the threshold at which power is cut. However, the utility is investigating whether the sensors were wrong. 

 

Super Bowl Will Be Hottest On Record (UPDATE: Record Highs Set Further North, Too!)

A rare wintertime heat advisory is in effect this week around
Los Angeles, and Sunday's Super Bowl will be feature
the hottest temperatures of any for the big game.

Sunday's Super Bowl, featuring the Los Angeles Rams versus the Cincinnati Bengals, will be the hottest  Super Bowl on record. 

Sure, it's a premier winter event, but temperatures during the game will kick off in Los Angeles at 3:30 p.m. West Coast time, when temperatures are expecting to be in the upper 80s. 

The Los Angeles area is under a very rare (at least for this time of year) heat advisory through Sunday.  High temperatures in the region are forecast to range between 86 and 91 degrees over the next few days. 

As the Washington Post reports: 

"For the first time in California's history, the National Weather Service has issued heat advisories in February affecting more than 16 million people. Until this point, such advisories had occurred only between April and October."

High temperatures in downtown Los Angeles daily today through Sunday should be somewhere between 87 and 89 degrees.

This isn't the hottest it's ever been around Los Angeles this time of year, but it's up there. The all time hottest temperature in the city's downtown during February was 95 degrees in 1995.

Since these temperatures are unusually hot, but not entirely unprecedented, I do have questions as to why the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles pulled the trigger on a heat advisory.

That doesn't mean I oppose the idea. Temperatures in the upper 80s, especially considering the humidity won't be that bad, doesn't sound too awful. But if you're not acclimatized to that kind of weather, you can get yourself in trouble, especially if you don't drink enough (non-alcoholic) liquid.

I haven't seen any public announcements of the reasoning behind the heat advisory, but I can think of a couple good ones.

First of all, this is a long stretch of hot weather. Each day, starting Wednesday and forecast to continue through Sunday, will be 15 to 20 degrees warmer than average.  The longer a hot spell goes on, the more it affects people.

So this will tend to wear down people who must work outdoors.  

Perhaps an even bigger issue is the Super Bowl itself. Los Angeles will host a crap load of out of towners, many of whom are really not accustomed to summer hot spells in February.

Many of the people at the game will surely be from the Cincinnati area. Normal high temperatures in that part of the nation this time of year are in the low 40s. 

They won't be used to the heat, and half of them will be drinking tons of beer.

The heat is being accompanied by gusty downslope winds. Since December, the Los Angeles area has not seen the normal winter rains it should get. Early Thursday, a rare February brush fire forced evacuations around Laguna Beach, California.  As of mid-day, firefighters seemed to be gaining the upper hand on the fire. 

Further north, several daily record highs were set Thursday around the San Francisco Bay Area.  The San Francisco Airports reached 78 degrees, breaking the record for the hottest reading for the entire month of February.  Salinas tied its all-time February record, reaching 87 degrees.

Downslope winds in Oregon had temperatures in that state reaching 85 in the town of Brookings. This might be a February record for the entire state of Oregon.

More record highs are expected along the West Coast today into Sunday. 

The Perils Of At-Home TV Meteorologists, (Ctd.)

Los Angeles television meteorologist Leslie Lopez
recently got an assist with the forecast from son Nolan.

 In this past year of pandemic, we've seen more than a few television meteorologists, working from home, having some, um, special guests interrupt their broadcasts. 

One of the latest cute interruptions came a little over a week ago on ABC7 in Los Angeles when meteorologist Leslie Lopez was trying to tell viewers about an impending storm when her 10-month old son Nolan decided to make a cameo. 

As Lopez tries to tell viewers what to expect for high temperatures that day, a baby suddenly appears, trying to crawl up her leg.  That was the introduction viewers got to her son Nolan.

Lopez completed the weather segment like the pro she is, finishing up her forecast while scooping Nolan up into her arms. "He walks now.guys, so I've lost all control," Lopez explained on air, with a smile.

Predictably and fortunately, ABC7 viewers were understanding and appreciative. So much so, that Nolan made another appearance the next day, to thank people for the positive reaction. 

"I've been getting comments, 'Just more baby an weather, please.'" Lopez said.

I agree with that! Here's a video of the initial cameo, and some discussion the next day: