Quick Monday Evening Update On Bizarre October Vermont Heat

It was another day of record warmth in Vermont today.
Not 100 degrees like depicted in this illustration,
but 80s are pretty incredible for October. 

It was another record-breaker today, but as many forecasters expected, it was a degree or two "colder" today than Sunday, not that anybody noticed. 

It was hot! Especially for October. 

Burlington got to at least 84 degrees this afternoon, enough to break the record for the date of 82 degrees. 

But not enough to once again tie the all time record high for the entire month of October, which was set Sunday and on October 4, 2023.

Montpelier got to at least 82, breaking the record high of 79 degrees. And St. Johnsbury got to at least 84, breaking the old record high of 83 degrees.

I keep saying "at least," because these are preliminary figures. The temperature might have gone up a degree or so after I checked out the temperatures late Monday afternoon. 

As has been the case, the fire danger is quite high. Breezes through this evening will keep the danger going. 

I'm already aware of at least three brush fires just in Franklin County today. One in Swanton, another near Sheldon, appear to have originated in farm fields, which leads me to suspect fall harvesting might have accidentally touched off both blazes. But I don't yet know that as fact.

Another fire was reported spreading into the woods in Bakersfield late this afternoon. 

I'm guessing there might have been fires today elsewhere in Vermont, too, but I haven't yet looked into that too carefully.

The fire danger lasts through noon or early afternoon Tuesday across Vermont. The humidity will be a little higher, which will help. But that will be offset by winds that will be noticeably stronger than today.  

I'll remind you there's a statewide burn ban in effect.

It still looks like a decent rain will hit late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Not enough to end the drought but enough to give us a couple days reprieve from the awfully dry conditions out there.

I'll have much more on this in a post tomorrow morning. 

Friday Cold Front Caused Some Vermont Drama; Fire Hazard Remains, But Rain Monday?

Drama in the skies over Vermont with a gusty cold 
front Friday, but again, precious little rain. 

Friday's cold front passing through Vermont caused created some dramatic skies and winds strong enough to cut power to a few places in the Green Mountain State.  

But the front failed to provide what was really needed: A soaking rain did not happen. 

There was never much rain in the forecast. But the front did give us something to watch.

 The dramatic clouds, combined with with shafts of bright, golden late afternoon sun looked quite spectacular. And several places were treated to huge rainbows from the very brief showers. 

If nothing else, then, it was a great day for Vermont sky watchers. 

This was an odd line or two of showers and storms for this time of year. The rare times you get strong gusty winds with a line of showers and storms is along a storm front is when a powerful cold front from one of these Great Lakes "gales of November" storms smashes through.    

But we haven't really had one of those storms yet. 

Instead, yesterday, we had a dry cold front coming in from the northwest. It was moisture-starved, but it made the best of what it had, thanks to some nice lift in the atmosphere and a strong push of northwest winds behind it.

The main line of storms was strong enough to be able to spit out some lightning strikes near Montreal, and in the area where Quebec, New Hampshire and Maine meet. 

A shelf cloud on the front edge of a line of gusty showers
Friday over St. Albans, Vermont. 

By the time it got into northern Vermont, the storms were still strong enough to create a shelf cloud o the leading edge of the line. A shelf cloud is common in summer thunderstorms but you don't often see them in November. 

Gusts exceeded 40 mph, reaching 50 mph in a few spots. Close to 3,000 homes and businesses in Vermont lost power as the winds were strong enough to pull down a few trees and branches. Some spots were briefly pelted by pea sized hail. 

FIRE WEATHER

Since very little rain fell, with none in much of southern Vermont, there's still a risk of brush fires today. It's still windy, too, with gusts as high as 35 mph this morning before beginning to diminish this afternoon. 

So you want to be careful.

As has been the case all autumn, the fire risk is greater in the even drier areas of southern New England and Mid-Atlantic States. Friday's gusty weather set off brush fires in New Jersey's Palisades sent smoke billowing across the Hudson River into upper Manhattan

Massachusetts has really been burning the past couple of days.  Two firefighters were injured fighting a brush fire in Mansfield, while another fire threatened homes in Braintree.

A large brush fire also burned near an apartment complex and a commercial district near Saugus and Lynn, Massachusetts on Thursday and Friday. Another brush fire that began Thursday along the Mass Pike near Chicopee in western Massachusetts forced the temporary closure of that busy highway due to thick smoke. 

RAIN OUTLOOK

It still looks like it's going to rain Monday, which is nice, but this will not be any kind of blockbuster storm. It'll suppress the fire risk in Vermont and the rest of New England, at least for awhile, but won't do much to stunt a building drought. 

Another storm looked like it would give us a bunch more rain toward the end of the week. As of now, long range forecasts are looking less and less bullish on decent rain chances toward Thursday and Friday. 

 

Fire Risk When Vermont Ground So Soggy Underfoot? You Bet!

Dry brush Tuesday in the area behind my St. Albans,
Vermont house.  This is the time of year to be 
very careful with fire and matches, because brush
and wildfires can easily start. Even if it 
just rained a couple days ago 

It was still squishy underfoot Tuesday evening as I cleaned up storm damage on my St. Albans, Vermont property. 

Not exactly mud season, but definitely damp. 

So, why am I not seeking a burn permit to get rid of all the trees and branches that fell on my property during two recent storms?

Because despite the mud, it's fire season in Vermont. 

It's the most likely season for brush and wildfires to break out around here.  It hasn't really greened up yet. so there's all that dried up plant debris from last year. The trees aren't leafed out, either, so the strong spring sun can blast through to the ground and dry things up quickly.

Plus, there's a particular weather pattern this time of year that can lead to fire weather. 

Remember that remarkably dry air we were so fortunate to have back on April 8, eclipse day? The weather that kept all but decorative high cloudiness out of the way?

That's what we tend to get this time of year. 

High pressure systems with fair, dry weather often make their way into New England from Canada. At least in southern Canada, much of the snow is gone buy now. And there's no leaves on the trees to add moisture to the air via transpiration. 

So those fair weather systems are often bone dry. Arid.  Even if it's been rainy, a day or two of that super dry air can suck the moisture out of the dead weeds and plants and such from last year.  Plus, as these high pressure systems approach, they often compete with a departing storm up in the Canadian Maritimes. That causes dry, gusty erratic winds. 

Some springs are more fire prone than others. We can go long stretches - a week or more - without any rain and plenty of super dry air. That's when you most often see fires erupting. 

So far this year, showers have been pretty frequent, which is helping to prevent a lot of fire problems.  Over the next few days, wet weather systems will try to work in from the west, but will tend to fall apart as they reach Vermont. 

Which actually will work out to be good compromise. Scattered light showers will keep things damp. But there will be no day long, heavy rains to keep us indoors. We can still go outdoors and do stuff. 

Fire season in Vermont is still young, so we still might have long stretches of dry weather going well into May.  The risk of fire goes down somewhat, but definitely does not disappear once things really green up later this spring. 

As far as my storm debris goes, I'm stashing it in a far corner of my property for now. Next winter, when there's snow on the ground is when I'll make all that mess into a nice, satisfying bonfire. 

Insane, Climate-Driven April Heat Continues In New England

Large brush fire burning near Exeter, Rhode Island
Friday amid unprecedented, record April heat. 

UPDATE: 6 pm SATURDAY

The heat continued to over-perform, at least in some parts of Vermont. 

It got up to at least 85 degrees so far today in Burlington, That's good enough for a record high for the date. The old record was 82 in 2003.

Today would have been the earliest in the season that it's been 85 degrees in Burlington, if not for the 88 degree reading we had on Thursday. 

It looks like Montpelier tied its record high for today's date at 78 degrees.

These aren't final figures. I'll have updates tomorrow. 

The area experiencing record warmth is shrinking from the east, south and west. Northwestern Vermont will be the last place to experience a cool down.  It'll probably get into the upper 70s there tomorrow, as opposed to the 60s to low 70s elsewhere in Vermont. 

Vermont just missed out on another interesting weather pattern today, as if there hasn't been enough lately. An upper level low in southern Pennsylvania created slow moving thunderstorms in Connecticut, western Massachusetts, southern New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Despite recent dry conditions, the storms were moving so slowly that long lasting torrential rain fell in a few spots, raising local flash flood concerns not far from where brush fires were burning. 

The storms didn't quite make it to southern Vermont so far, but one got as far north as around Saratoga, New York. 

Much cooler weather is likely next week. Which is to be expected, as it can't really get any hotter. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Some of the temperatures I saw from southern New England Friday just blew my mind. 

It's barely the middle of April, and some reading in Connecticut and Massachusetts reached the mid-90s. I'm not kidding.  There are temperatures pretty much never thought possible this early in the season. 

Windsor Locks, Connecticut got up to 96 degrees, for instance.  As of 3 p.m. Friday, Windsor Locks was the hottest place in the United States. Hotter than Arizona, Texas and Floria and everywhere else. The old record high in Windsor Locks for the date was 82 degrees. 

Temperatures in the 90s reached as far north as New Hampshire. Manchester had a record high of 91 and Concord reached 90. Remember, this is the first half of April, not the Fourth of July weekend. In southern Vermont, Springfield topped out at 88 degrees.

A weak cold front slightly tempered the heat in northern Vermont Friday, but we still managed to set some records even behind the cold front. Both Montpelier and Morrisville achieved a record high of 81 degrees on Friday. St. Johnsbury had a record high of 80.

Burlington was uncharacteristically the icebox of Vermont on Friday, "only" reaching 77 degrees. That's still a full 22 degrees above normal for the date, so it was plenty unusual. 

Amid this strange, dry heat, brush fires broke out everywhere, but mostly in New Jersey southern New York and southern New England. Firefighters during the afternoon were fighting large blazes near Exeter, Rhode Island and Hopkinton, Massachusetts. 

Large brush fires in Rockland County, New York caused evacuations, minor damage to homes and destroyed sheds. 

Somewhat smaller brush fires were reported in the Vermont communities of North Clarendon, Rutland, Rupert and Colchester in recent days. 

Though no fires were nearby, the air at last evening's hazy sunset in St. Albans contained just a whiff of a smoke aroma. 

HEAT FADING, BUT STILL STRONG

The record heat is eroding from both the east and west in New England, but in some spots, the record high temperatures won't fully get flushed out until Sunday evening. 

A weak storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast is creating east winds in much of New England, which is bringing cool maritime air in off the chilly waters of the North Atlantic.  

Boston was 88 on Thursday and hit 83 Friday before the sea breeze kicked in.  Today, Boston is forecast to only hit 64 degrees.

Most of southern New England away from the coast should hit the low 70s today. Still warm for the season, but no longer shockingly hot.    

Vermont stays warm today, especially west of the Green Mountains and more record highs might fall.  Highs today will range from the low 70s in eastern Vermont to possibly low 80s west. The record high in Burlington today is 82 degrees, and that one is threatened. 

It'll be cooler still on Sunday but still way warm for the season. Vermont will feature 60s north and 70s west. 

Cold fronts are due Monday and Tuesday, and temperatures will actually be a bit below normal Tuesday and Wednesday. At midweek, highs might not get out of the 40s, before somewhat milder air returns late in the week.

CLIMATE INFLUENCE 

Record heat, and record cold should be expected from time to time. Weather is variable, after all. There's always been unseasonably hot days and out of character frigid days. 

A big dome of warm high pressure sat over the eastern United States this week. That is something that happens from time to time in the spring, with or without climate change. This warm high pressure would have caused near record high temperatures even without the influence of man-made heating.   

But a warmer world helped turn what would have been a lovely warm spring interlude into something insane. Many of the records set in the Northeast, including in Vermont, were easily the hottest for so early in the season.

As I mentioned yesterday, this wasn't a one-off.  Hottest for so early in the season heat has hit our region a lot in recent decades, including in March, 2012, February, 2017 and May, 2020. Just last November, it was 76 degrees in Burlington, Vermont, the hottest for the month of November and hottest for so late in the season. 

We might not have any more extreme heat this spring. Who knows, right? But with climate change, it's inevitable that sooner or later, we will again be marveling, - and a little frightened by - another unprecedented, out of season heat wave. 

Super Bowl Will Be Hottest On Record (UPDATE: Record Highs Set Further North, Too!)

A rare wintertime heat advisory is in effect this week around
Los Angeles, and Sunday's Super Bowl will be feature
the hottest temperatures of any for the big game.

Sunday's Super Bowl, featuring the Los Angeles Rams versus the Cincinnati Bengals, will be the hottest  Super Bowl on record. 

Sure, it's a premier winter event, but temperatures during the game will kick off in Los Angeles at 3:30 p.m. West Coast time, when temperatures are expecting to be in the upper 80s. 

The Los Angeles area is under a very rare (at least for this time of year) heat advisory through Sunday.  High temperatures in the region are forecast to range between 86 and 91 degrees over the next few days. 

As the Washington Post reports: 

"For the first time in California's history, the National Weather Service has issued heat advisories in February affecting more than 16 million people. Until this point, such advisories had occurred only between April and October."

High temperatures in downtown Los Angeles daily today through Sunday should be somewhere between 87 and 89 degrees.

This isn't the hottest it's ever been around Los Angeles this time of year, but it's up there. The all time hottest temperature in the city's downtown during February was 95 degrees in 1995.

Since these temperatures are unusually hot, but not entirely unprecedented, I do have questions as to why the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles pulled the trigger on a heat advisory.

That doesn't mean I oppose the idea. Temperatures in the upper 80s, especially considering the humidity won't be that bad, doesn't sound too awful. But if you're not acclimatized to that kind of weather, you can get yourself in trouble, especially if you don't drink enough (non-alcoholic) liquid.

I haven't seen any public announcements of the reasoning behind the heat advisory, but I can think of a couple good ones.

First of all, this is a long stretch of hot weather. Each day, starting Wednesday and forecast to continue through Sunday, will be 15 to 20 degrees warmer than average.  The longer a hot spell goes on, the more it affects people.

So this will tend to wear down people who must work outdoors.  

Perhaps an even bigger issue is the Super Bowl itself. Los Angeles will host a crap load of out of towners, many of whom are really not accustomed to summer hot spells in February.

Many of the people at the game will surely be from the Cincinnati area. Normal high temperatures in that part of the nation this time of year are in the low 40s. 

They won't be used to the heat, and half of them will be drinking tons of beer.

The heat is being accompanied by gusty downslope winds. Since December, the Los Angeles area has not seen the normal winter rains it should get. Early Thursday, a rare February brush fire forced evacuations around Laguna Beach, California.  As of mid-day, firefighters seemed to be gaining the upper hand on the fire. 

Further north, several daily record highs were set Thursday around the San Francisco Bay Area.  The San Francisco Airports reached 78 degrees, breaking the record for the hottest reading for the entire month of February.  Salinas tied its all-time February record, reaching 87 degrees.

Downslope winds in Oregon had temperatures in that state reaching 85 in the town of Brookings. This might be a February record for the entire state of Oregon.

More record highs are expected along the West Coast today into Sunday.