Tropical Storm Rachel Harasses Southwest, Powerful Hurricane Slams Mexico

Homes in Long Beach, California, battered by days
or waves generated by offshore hurricanes are 
crumbling under the assault. Photo via Facebook
from Storm Chaser Jordan Hall

 California and the southwestern United States are still picking up the mess left by Tropical Storms Rachel, which Hurricane Simon continuous to trash the Mexican west coast.  

The two storms are causing additional damage in a summer and autumn that has produced a lot of tropical trouble on the Pacific side of North America.

RACHEL

Tropical Storm Rachel is long gone now, having fed a storm in northern New York and New England that dumped heavy rains Tuesday. 

 Rachel started harassing California several days ago when the storm was still offshore. 

A Kelvin wave has elevated sea levels along the coast. Then, huge waves from then-Tropical Storm Rachel created more destruction Thursday night and Friday. 

The most damage occurred in on Long Beach Peninsula. The boardwalk there and homes lining the boardwalk, were damaged in previous storms this year.

By Saturday night, the century-old Long Beach boardwalk was almost completely in ruins and homes along that boardwalk were beginning to crumble. 

Per ABC7 in Los Angeles:

"At least eight buildings, including some condos and apartments, have been red-tagged. Another property has been yellow tagged.

One home appeared severely damage and at risk of falling into the ocean."

A home that is red tagged means the house is unsafe for occupation and nobody should enter them until repairs make the structure safe. 

Video showed the buildings cracked and sagging, threatening to collapse, as waves continued to batter and undermine the structures over the weekend .

The Long Beach Marathon went on as scheduled Sunday, but had to be rerouted away from the beach due to storm damage and coastal flooding. Elsewhere along the coast, homes on Dana Point were also damaged by waves.

A large crack appeared on an embankment separating the Pacific Coast Highway and the ocean between Laguna Beach and Newport Beach.  The crack was narrow in a video taken yesterday, but was much wider today 

The storm dumped heavy rain on far southern California. 

Southern California seldom gets much rain in October, But several stations, especially in the mountain Palomar and Birch Hill, at elevations of over 5,300 feet elevation each had a little more than 3.8 inches of rain. 

In coastal communities, Carlsbad had 1.65 inches, Oceanside had 1.55, and National City had 1.29 inches. San Diego itself has had 0.84 inches so far.  Three quarters of an inch fell just on Saturday. Normal for San Diego for the entire month of October is just a half inch. 

On top of all this, little or no rain fell north of Las Angeles. Gusty winds from the storm helped spread a growing brush fire in Santa Clarita. The fire burned 475 acres and forced evacuations, but it has since calmed down and residents have returned home. 

 Meanwhile, gusty winds and flash flooding harassed Arizona, Utah, Nevada and southwest Colorado. 

In Utah, about 70 runners Sunday in Utah's Moab 240 ultramarathon were evacuated from the race route after they were stranded by flooding.  None of the athletes were injured. 

The event was ultimately canceled. "The weather has become too dangerous to safely continue - we've received reports of aid station structures blowing away, trees falling down, wind, rain, freezing temps - and we're expecting conditions to get worse tonight."

A major route through Cottonwood Canyon, Utah was closed by flooding, too. A little over an inch of rain fell in Las Vegas, causing flash flooding that stranded cars and blocked roads. 

HURRICANE SIMON

Powerful Hurricane Simon has been torturing the west coast of Mexico over the past few days. 

It's been moving northwestward, parallel to the Mexican coast since at least Sunday. Top winds were 150 mph on Sunday. 

Winds with Simon had decreased to 90 mph.  The hurricane has been close enough to the Mexican coast to.cause battering waves and torrential rains. Tropical storm Rachel and Hurricane Simon have so far teamed up to kill 5 people in Mexico. 

The hurricane was meandering very slowly Wednesday with a somewhat unpredictable path. Current projections have it going into the Gulf of California later this week.  

 

Another Frosty Vermont Morning In Spots, Nice Weather To Be Followed by Nor'easter Effects, How Much Rain?

Yesterday, a beautiful Wednesday in Vermont, showed that
fall foliage isn't that far along yet, as this view from a 
high spot in Richmond shows. If we get wind and rain
from the weekend nor'easter, it won't wreck this year's
foliage season because things aren't 
that far long yet. 

 As expected, it was another chilly September morning today, but very typical for the season. 

Most of Vermont was in the mid-30s at dawn, with a few spots in the low 30s. The Champlain Valley was closer to 40 degrees. Southern Vermont was chillier than yesterday. Bennington was down to 33 degrees.

As always, there was a lot of fog in the valleys, which will burn off this morning. Chances are it will be gone by the time you read this. This will yield another beautiful autumn day with lots of sunshine and highs well into the 60s. 

FRIDAY

The day will dawn cool again, but probably not quite as cool as this morning. So the chances of frost are lower, but there might be a spot or two in the coldest areas. The early morning fog will be back, too. It'll be another sunny, beautiful day, Some high clouds will come in especially south. That'll be the first sign of the nor'easter in Vermont

NOR'EASTER WEEKEND

We have an overall sense of what this nor'easter will do, but the picky details of how that will affect us in Vermont is still an open question. The storm was just developing off the North Carolina coast this morning and will slowly head north while strengthening. It should be somewhere a little south or east of the New England Saturday. 

After that, it might loop a little westward while starting to weaken. By early next week the nor'easter will e falling apart while heading out to sea.

We're still looking at a lot of coastal erosion and flooding from Virginia to New England.  Also southeastern New England is under a high wind watch for those strong nor'easter winds that were expected.

Unless you like huge, beach chewing storms, stay away from the immediate East Coast over the next few days. 

Vermont Effects

It now looks like the nor'easter will send bands of rain westward into Vermont. But those rain bands will run into dry air and weaken as they do so. 

We still don't know how much rain will make it into the Green Mountain State. It's beginning to look like most, but maybe not all of the state will see at least a little rain, and it might be a soaker for the far southeast. 

Maybe. 

According to the National Weather Service/South Burlington's forecast discussion, the models are all over the place as to how much rain might fall. 

That discussion highlights the differences in expected rainfall in Vermont among the models.  As of this morning, it could be anywhere between nothing and 0.44 inches in Burlington, In Montpelier, nor'easter rainfall could range anywhere between 0.04 and 0.82. In Springfield, the range is between 0.15 and 1.5 inches. 

On top of that, we can expect more shifts in rainfall projects in the days and hours leading up to this weekend. 

Overall, it looks pretty likely that southeast Vermont will have at least a fairly wet weekend, while anything could  happen in the northwestern half of the state. 

Temperatures this weekend, especially Sunday look questionable, too. Daytime readings could hold in the low to mid 50s in areas that have the steadiest rain. If the clouds are thin and rain-free in the northwest, it could be 70 degrees up there. 

It'll get breezy, too. Nor'easters are obviously windy, and even in the outskirts of the storm it can get breezy. So far, it's looking like winds could gust to over 30 mph in the southern and central Green Mountains. The same might be true in the Champlain Valley. The winds will funnel between the Green Mountains and Adirondacks, which speeds the airflow up. 

Luckily, it's early in the foliage season and the fall colors themselves are running a little late this year. That means this storm with its potential wind and rain won't be a "foliage stripper."  The peak colors coming up in October will still be spectacular, whether or not this storm hits Vermont. 

Vermont Frost Was Pretty Scattered This Morning; Nice Days Until Potential Weekend Nor'easter; Coast To Be Hit Hard

Plants were covered on my St. Albans deck this morning,
as a I heeded a frost advisory. I actually didn't think it
would get dangerously cold for the plants, and it
only got down to 39 degrees. No harm in being
cautious though. 

  I kind of figured the frost this morning would be pretty light and very scattered, with many places escaping trouble. You can't be too careful , though, with the frost risk for your outdoor plants, so that I think is why there was a frost advisory in much of Vermont.  

Burlington was at 41 degrees at 7 a.m. so no frost there. My covered plants on my St. Albans, Vermont deck were cowering beneath the sheets to escape a not-so-frosty 39 degrees. 

Most places in Vermont at dawn were in the 30s. Morrisville was at 32 degrees at 6 a.m. indicating at least some of us had frosts or even a freeze.

Let's get into what will happen in the next couple of days.  Then look at the impending nor'easter in New England and the Mid-Atlantic states, and what it means for us here in Vermont. Spoiler: There's still a lot of unanswered questions about it. 

TODAY

Another beauty. Highs in the 60s, under lots of sun. Tonight will be cool again, and there might be new frost advisories. But if you didn't see frost this morning there's an excellent chance you won't see any tomorrow morning, either. 

THURSDAY

Nice again! Highs will into the 60s under sunny skies once again.

THE NOR'EASTER

Instead of continuing on with the daily forecast here, we should describe this impending storm. It's going to cause a lot of trouble from the Mid-Atlantic States on through New England, especially along the coastlines. 

We already have coastal flood warnings in Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey starting this afternoon, and the storm hasn't even wound up yet. 

I have seen some social media weather pundits falsely comparing this storm to Superstorm Sandy or the Perfect Storm of 1991.  That's just for clicks and profits. 

But still, this could be a pretty memorable storm, mostly because it will linger off the New England  coast for so long. 

The general idea of what the storm will do is being to take shape. It will start forming about now well off the North Carolina coast, then slowly move northward to somewhere off then coast of New England. Then it will become trapped and spin in that general vicinity for a couple days before gradually weekend and heading out to sea early next week. 

Exactly where it goes will decide how bad the weather gets along the coast. The storm's path will also determine how much of an effect it has on Vermont. Some models have the storm heading backwards for a time, moving toward the west and actually making landfall in New England. Others models keep it offshore. 

Given that, we don't know how rainy, how windy, or how chilly it will get in Vermont and where. 

I imagine clouds will slowly increase later Thursday into Friday as the storm gets a little closer. 

Here are the forecast challenges

Rain:  

Strong high pressure to the north and west will have very dry air with it. So rain moving westward from the storm into Vermont would run into that dry air.  That would mean a sharp cutoff between fairly substantial rain to the south and east and very little to the north and west. Where that line between wet and dry sets up is a complete unknown as of now. 

Wind

The closer the storm comes to us, the windier it will get. This won't be a huge blowdown by any means, but if the storm gets close enough, some gusts could get strong enough to knock down a few trees and power lines. If we do see gusty winds they're most likely in the southern Green Mountains. The channeling effects of mountains on either side other Champlain Valley might make things relatively gusty there, too.

Temperatures

Expect highs in the low 50s to low 70s over the weekend.  That huge range is by no means helpful if you're deciding what to wear if you're out and about Saturday. The problem is that dry air. Where it rains, evaporation cooling could drop temperatures well down into the 50s. If there's just thin clouds, especially north and west, temperatures could to 70 degrees.  

Bottom Line: 

If you have weekend travel plans to Cape Cod and the Islands, Long Island, the Jersey Shore or places like Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, or Ocean City, Maryland, fuhgeddaboudit.  Coastal flooding, severe beach erosion, gusty winds, power outages and inundated coastal roads will not make things pleasant.  Plus, you'll just be in the way if there are any evacuations of coastal homes and buildings. 

If you stay in Vermont really expect anything this weekend. You'll need to be flexible with your plans because with this situation, we might not know if it will be sunny or rainy until almost the last moment. A small shift in the storm track will make a huge difference as to who gets what. 

Unlike at the coast, Vermont will suffer little or no damage from this storm, so that's a plus.  If we get really, really lucky, we could get some badly needed rain. 

We will try to monitor this storm as best we can as the event gets closer.