Cyclone Freddy Turned Much More Tragic As It Broke Records For Longevity, Power

Satellite photo of Cyclone Freddy between Madagascar and
Mozambique.  It caused catastrophic flooding and 
will go down in history as the world's longest 
lasting tropical cyclone on record. 

 Back on March 9, I posted on a storm known as Cyclone Freddy, which was near the east coast of Africa that day. 

It was about to break records for the longest lasting tropical cyclone on record for anywhere on Earth.

So here's a followup: 

Unfortunately, since then, Freddy strengthened, and slammed into Mozambique for a second time, and in this second hit, unleaded floods that killed hundreds. 

At last check, Freddy had killed no fewer than 522 people in Mozambique, Malawi and Madagascar. 

As Al Jazeeri reports, Mozambique and Malawi were both dealing with cholera outbreaks before the storm, so this will only make things worse.

The storm finally dissipated last Wednesday inland over Mozambique as it continued to unleash its torrential rains. 

It looks like Freddy lasted 36 days, which would exceed the record by Typhoon/Hurricane John in the Pacific Ocean back in 1994. It's unusual for a tropical system to last more than a couple weeks. 

It's unclear how climate change affected Freddy's strength and longevity, but it's certainly more than plausible that had an effect.  Climate scientists warn that in many parts of the world, tropical cyclones are becoming more powerful and persistent under the influence of a warming planet. 

As Guy On Climate put it:

"It's fairly easy to see why Freddy's behavior can be blamed on climate change. They system traversed warmer than average waters on its long path across the Indian Ocean and between Madagascar and the African coast."

The World Meteorological Organization will examine the history of Freddy and later certify whether or not it was indeed the record hold for most long-lived tropical cyclone. 

Geriatric Cyclone Freddy Sets A World Record For Longevity

 Cyclone Freddy, which I mentioned in a previous post on February 26 as it was damaging Madagascar, this week is about to break a world record for the longest lived tropical storm on record. 

As of Wednesday, it had survived 29 days, and will probably get to 32 days before finally falling apart. 

 Tropical systems, whether they are called hurricanes, cyclones or typhoons, stay alive over warm water. If these storms encounter land or cold water, they fall apart.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, Freddy developed way back on February 6 somewhere over the Indian Ocean between Indonesia and Australia.  It crossed the entire South Indian Ocean, moving westward until it finally made landfall on February 21 in east-central Madagascar.  It then crossed a straight between Madagascar and the east coast of Africa and made landfall in Mozambique on February 24.

At that point, you'd think the storm was done, dying over land in eastern Africa. 

But nope! Freddy did a U-turn and headed out back over the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel. Freddy kind of hung out over the channel, re-gaining strength before it clipped the southwestern coset of Madagascar again.

Then, it sort of meandered before finally heading back toward Mozambique, as of Wednesday, and is expected to hit that nation later this week further north than the first strike. At that point, we'll probably be finally able to say goodbye to Freddy.

Or not. Many forecasters do expect Freddy to plow into Mozambique and eventually die. But some computer models have it nearing or bouncing off the coast, the meander some more in the Mozambique channel.

Freddy might turn out to be quite a zombie storm if that's the case. It figures it was named after the main character in the "A Nightmare on Elm Street" horror movie franchise. 

The straight east-to-west path Freddy took across the Indian Ocean is quite rare, as was its "decision" to meander aimlessly between Madagascar and Mozambique. 

 Freddy has caused severe flooding in Madagascar, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.  At least 21 people have died, and 1,800 people are displaced. The death toll would have been higher, but warning systems in advance of cyclones have improved in the three nations in recent years. 

However, Freddy's next landfall might have quite a punch.  It has rapidly intensified, going from a strong tropical storm to a Category 2 storm with top winds of just under 100 mph as of Tuesday.  It was forecast to strengthen to a Category 3, which would bring its wind speeds to between 111 and 129 mph. 

Satellite view of Cyclone Freddy near southwestern
Madagascar Monday. This storm is likely to break
the record for the longest lived tropical cyclone on record,

The WMO is setting up a committee to study Cyclone Freddy and verify if it is indeed the longest lasting tropical storm on record. The current long life holder is Hurricane/Typhoon John in the Pacific Ocean back in 1994.

 One thing that might prevent Freddy from becoming the record holder is that it periodically weakened during its life, so was it a tropical cyclone during its entire life?

Likely it was, but that'll have to be studied. 

Freddy has had quite a history. Along with its longevity, it has occasionally been quite powerful, and waxed and waned in surprising ways. 

This is Freddy's third episode of rapid intensification, which is officially defined as a wind increase of at least 35 mph within 24 hours. This is the most times an Indian Ocean cyclone has rapidly blossomed. At one point over the open ocean Freddy was a Category 5 storm, the strongest you can get. 

One of the best way to measure and compare the impact, longevity and overall strength of tropical systems is to records its Accumulated Cyclone Energy or ACE. The index measures the total amount of wind energy with a tropical system over its lifetime. (I'm not going to do the math lesson on how they calculate ACE, as I don't want to give everybody a headache).

As of Tuesday, Freddy had piled top 74.5 ACE units. That's the second most of any tropical storm in the Southern Hemisphere since at least 1980. 

Hurricane Ioke in the Central Pacific back in 2006 is the current record holder for ACE with 85 units. There's a chance Freddy could beat that record, too,

The inevitable question is whether climate change has contributed to Cyclone Freddy's longevity. All I can say is maybe.  

Warmer ocean waters created by climate change help tropical storms strengthen, or at least maintain their strength. It's possible Freddy would not have lasted so long without the toasty ocean temperatures the world is seeing now.

I have no idea whether climate change had anything to do with its path over the past month. 

New Zealand, Madagascar, Brazil Pummeled By Separate Intense Storms

Destruction in New Zealand after recent
 Cyclone Gabrielle 

The United States isn't the only place experience strong, dangerous storms lately. Intense storms have also hit New Zealand, Brazil and parts of eastern Africa. 

NEW ZEALAND

In New Zealand, at least eight deaths have been reported after Cyclone Gabrielle struck earlier this week, (MONDAY 2/13)

Reports the BBC:

"New Zealand's prime minister says he expects there to be more deaths from the violent storm which killed eight people and cut off hundreds of communities.

More than 4,500 people have yet to be contacted after Cyclone Gabrielle hit on Monday, causing significant flooding and landslides across the North Islands.

Many cities and towns are also without power and clean drinking water. A national state of emergency has been declared, only the third in New Zealand's history. 

"This is undoubtedly the biggest natural disaster that we've seen probably this century," Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said."

Most of the 4,500 people who haven't been found are almost surely alive, but are cut off from the rest of the world by cell towers and equipment that have damaged by the storm. Still, Hipkins told the nation to be prepared for the death toll to rise.

At least one body was found in an attic crawl space. The person tried to get as high as possible to avoid the water, but the inundation was so incredible it reached the attic

New Zealand's new prime minister did not mince words describing the chaos. As The Guardian reports: 

"'Cyclone Gabrielle is the most significant weather event New Zealand has seen in this century. The severity and the damage that we are seeing has not been experience in a generation,' the prime minister, Chris Hipkins, said on Tuesday. 'We are still building a picture of the effects of the cyclone as it continues to unfold. But what we do know is the impact is significant and it is widespread.'"

Just to make matters worse, a 6.0 earthquake was felt in New Zealand in the immediate aftermath of the storm, though damage from the earthquake was light. 

Before Gabrielle, Northern New Zealand, including Auckland, had its wettest day and wettest month on record in January, with serious flooding in an area usually known for its calm summer weather. (It's summer in the Southern Hemisphere, as you are probably aware). 

As Bob Henson and Jeff Masters wrote in Yale Climate Connections earlier this month: 

"Climate change is exacerbating the wet setup, as a freight train of rainmaking systems from the tropical western Pacific draws on unusually high seas surface temperature.. associated with a marine heat wave. Intensified short-term rains and warming oceans are two of the most clearly established effects of a human-warmed planet."

Speaking of those intensified short-term rains..........

BRAZIL

Flooding in parts of Brazil in the past few days have led to at nearly four dozen confirmed deaths, and at least 40 people remained missing at last report. 

Photo shows extensive damage from flooding and landslides
in Sao Sebastiao, Brazil. 

As the AP tells us: 

"Precipitation in San Sebastiao had surpassed 23.6 inches during a 24-hour period over the weekend, among the largest such downpours ever in such a short period in Brazil." 

The flooding hit a scenic area with ocean beaches flanked by mountains. The torrential downpours created walls of water that swept down the hillsides. Other slopes collapsed into landslides amid all the water. 

Many others were evacuated from near saturated hillsides as more landslides threatened amid continued downpours. 

CYCLONE FREDDY

Small but intense Cyclone Freddy shown here in a 
satellite photo heading toward Madagascar this week. 

An intense cyclone named Freddy traversed east to west across the Indian Ocean and smacked into Madagascar this week, (Hurricanes in the Indian Ocean are called cyclones). Freddy was a category 5 hurricane when it was out in the open Indian Ocean. That's the strongest possible hurricane with winds of 157 mph or more.  

Luckily, Freddy weakened to a strong Category 2 with winds of 110 mph when it made landfall in Madagascar.  Despite the fact that Madagascar averages at least one tropical cyclone per year, the infrastructure can't handle these storms all that well. 

So, Cyclone Freddy has created a path of destruction across central Madagascar, killing at least four people, creating a storm surge and blowing roofs off of numerous homes. This comes a few weeks after another cyclone killed 33 people on the island off the east coast of Africa, according to the BBC.

In one hard hit town, deaths were minimized because people living near a river were ordered out before the storm hit. 

Cyclone Freddy was at last report heading westward across the Mozambique Channel. It was expected to lash Mozambique and Zimbabwe with floods in the coming days.