Snowy Vermont Day Has Begun, Decent Snowfall Almost Statewide

This morning's National Weather Service snow prediction
map is little changed from yesterday. Still looking at
roughly 6 to 9 inches in the southeastern half of
Vermont and somewhat lesser amounts northwest. 

 As of 6:30 this morning the snow was beginning, launching us into our snowy start to December.

For such an unpredictable type of weather system, the forecast has remained remarkably consistent for the past few days. This morning, we have only small changes in the forecast compared to last night. 

The most important one is the slightly earlier than forecast onset of snow than we originally thought. The original idea was it coming in around 7 a.m., but at least for western Vermont and New York, it was around 6 a.m. or so.

The first bits of snow were light, but it will increase in intensity, especially in the southern half of Vermont. 

As for this morning, you know the drill.  If you haven't left for school or work yet, you should, or should have built in extra time to get to where you need to go. As of 7 a.m. traffic cameras showed roads getting increasingly snow covered, pretty fast across much of the state.

Before you head out, check your local listings for school closings. There's a ton of them. 

By 7 a.m., I haven't heard much yet about cars sliding off the roads or hitting each other, but that will come soon enough today. The saving grace with this storm is the heaviest snow is coming after most people are at work.

ACCUMULATIONS

Not much has changed in terms of how much snow we'll get. The bottom line: This is a midsized snowfall, by Vermont standards. 

The new forecast map issued this morning from the National Weather Service in South Burlington only has subtle changes, compared to the one they gave us Monday afternoon. Maybe a tiny bit more than yesterday's forecast in northwestern Vermont. That reflects a predicted storm track that has nudged just a bit north from yesterday. 

The winter storm warning is still in effect for basically the southern  half of Vermont and the winter weather advisory is up for everyone except people in Franklin and Grand Isle counties. But even there, the road conditions are already going downhill.

There will be some nuances with the accumulations in the area covered by warning and advisories. Three to 10 inches of new snow is a good bet today, depending on whether you're in the warning or the advisory. 

Traffic cam grab of Exit 16, Interstate 89 in Colchester
at around 7:30 this morning. The heaviest snow
hadn't arrived yet, so road conditions weren't as
bad as they could have been. 

But there will be nuances. This type of storm tends to set up narrow southwest to northeast oriented bands of heavier snow. You can't easily tell in advance where they will set up. 

This means you might get into a situation where you'll have a Vermont town that gets 10 inches of snow, then a community just a dozen or two miles north gets four or five inches, then another town a couple dozen miles north of that second town gets eight, nine, ten inches. 

It's the luck of the draw. 

In so many recent winters, we've had these awful "wet cement" heavy snowstorms, uncharacteristic for us, really. This one is more old-fashioned. Powdery. Not light insignificant feathers, but it won't be heart-attack snow, either. 

It still looks like the wind will be fairly light with this storm, so the snow will be pretty piling up on tree branches. It is surprisingly blustery outside here in St. Albans, but that seems to be some sort of local effects. Most places in Vermont were reporting calm winds, or winds at or under 10 mph. 

ROCKET STORM

Forecasts that this storm would move wicked fast are coming true. The storm was near southeastern North Carolina early this morning and will be near Cape Cod by this evening. 

That leaves us with a short window for heavier snow. That should come roughly between 10 a.m.  and 3 p.m. today. By late this afternoon or very early evening, the storm will basically be over in the northwest half of Vermont, and it will end before midnight in extreme southeastern parts of the state.

Usually, at least light snow lingers for many hours after a storm passes Cape Cod as northeast winds throw moisture back into our neck of the woods. This storm, though, is pretty compact, so once it's over, it's pretty much over.

Still, I expect roads to be in not great shape as we go into this evening, especially in southern and eastern Vermont. 

OUTLOOK

The roughest start to winter since at least 2019 and probably before that will continue to slap us in the face as we go through the week. Tomorrow will be fairly calm, but kinda cold for this time of year, with highs in the low 30s. 

That Arctic cold front is still looming for Thursday morning with its batch of snow showers and snow squalls. We're watching the timing of this one, because the snow squalls might enter the Champlain Valley around the morning commute. We're hoping they hold off until a little later in the morning, but we don't know for sure yet

Temperatures will crash into the teens by Thursday afternoon and to near 0 by Friday morning. It'll sort of warm up over the weekend and into next week, but barely. It'll still be much colder than average for this time of year well into next week. 

I'll have more details on that after we get past this storm, but it looks like we'll have a few shots of Arctic air through mid-month at least. 

Ugly Icy Morning Is Here, For Some Of Us In Vermont, Anyway

Areas in yellow and especially orange can expect ice
and slippery roads today. 

 As of 6 a.m., a nasty freezing drizzle was falling in the Champlain Valley of Vermont, and things there will continue to go downhill as our icy storm has arrived.

The storm is running late, so not much precipitation had fallen as of 6 a.m. But, a little dab will do ya, as they say. So despite the thinnest layer of ice out there, road conditions are deteriorating.

At my place in St, Albans at 6:30 a.m., I had freezing drizzle and a thick, rather dense freezing fog. Yuck!

As precipitation rates pick up this morning in the Champlain, in the form of freezing rain and sleet, and then snow, and the temperature continues to fall, the road conditions will just get worse.

Early this morning we had quite a temperature contrast in Vermont. Up in Burlington, at 6 a.m. it was 29 degrees with freezing drizzle, or  frizzle as I call it. Down it Bennington, it was still a nice, balmy 53 degrees.

In between, it was in the upper 30s and low 40s.  It will take awhile for the cold air to push into central and southern Vermont. At this point, it looks like Montpelier and Rutland could stay as plain rain until mid-morning, when mixed precipitation will arrive amid falling temperatures. 

St. Johnsbury might wait until as late as 11 a.m. or so for the mix. 

Far southern Vermont will get into the light snow and mix with the colder air this afternoon. But by then, the storm will be blowing by, so they won't get much of anything. 

The winter weather advisory for the worst ice and snow conditions runs roughly north and west of a Rutland to St. Johnsbury line. However, places south and east of that line will have some trouble with icy, slick roads this afternoon.

In the worst-hit northwestern part of the state, the freezing rain and sleet should pick up in intensity basically any minute now (I'm writing this at about 6:30 a.m. ).

Although the mixed precipitation will be more than enough to make the roads and sidewalks icy as hell, it won't be enough to cause much in the way of power outages. 

Even before the main precipitation arrived, little icicles 
were beginning to form in the freezing drizzle on 
the light fixtures outside my St. Albans, Vermont home.
Photo take around 6:45 a.m. 

Usually, you start seeing problems when ice accumulates more than a quarter inch on trees and wires. The expectation is most of the Champlain Valley and other parts of northwestern Vermont should see maybe a tenth of an inch of ice.  Maybe just a tad more in a few spots. 

We might see a few power issues as winds pick up, but it won't be a huge disaster like the two storms in December were for Vermont's power grid. 

Freezing rain will transition to sleet, then to snow as the morning and early afternoon wear on. Snowfall amounts will only amount to an inch or two along and north of Route 2. It might end up closer to three inches way in the northwest corner of Vermont, up by Highgate, Swanton and Alburgh.  

Central and southern Vermont should see less than an inch in most places. There probably won't be anything at all way down by Brattleboro.

Many schools are either closed or delayed today in northwestern Vermont, so you'll want to check your local announcements.

I did notice some lightning strikes in central New York early this morning. It's possible, not likely but possible, some of us in Vermont will end up with thunder sleet, or thunder ice or something like that.  

If you must head out, be careful as you might be surprised. We've had that record warmth, so some main roads in northwestern Vermont might initially be just wet. But as temperatures continue to fall into the teens this afternoon, that will change.

Road crews are out salting and sanding, but precipitation will wash some of that off, and the salt will start to become a bit less effective as it gets colder. 

And cripes! Be careful walking out there. It was so slick underfoot around my property in St. Albans early this morning, and that problem will continue to expand. 

Emergency rooms are going to be awfully busy with people injured in falls, I'm afraid. 

The good news is we're going to lose at least some of the ice. Eventually. 

The snow will end later this afternoon, and it will be a cold night, with lows in the single numbers.

Saturday, temperatures will rebound to the upper 20s and low 30s under a fair amount of sunshine. That will melt some of the ice in sunny spots. Sunday will bring temperatures up into the 40s, so that will get rid of some more of it. 

That brings up another hazard: I have a feeling ice blowing off cars and trucks on the highways will crack or break windshields of traffic behind them.

When you hack through the ice to get into your vehicle today or tomorrow, try to get as much ice off the whole thing as you can.  Me and my windshield will thank you profusely. 

Vermont Snowstorm Dumping Big South and Central, Almost Nothingburger Far Northwest

Screen grab from Vermont Agency of Transportation
web cam along Interstate 91 in Thetford early this morning
showed cars slogging through heavy snow.

 A pretty, but also pretty nasty winter storm is underway early this morning in southern and central Vermont, while the far northwest corner of the state wonders what all the fuss is about. 

As of 7 a.m., the storm seems to be playing out about as forecast. If anything, the band of heavier snow as depicted on radar was a bit further  north than I imagined, running from Rutland and southern Addison counties up to northern Windsor, Orange and southern Washington and Caledonia counties.

Orange County so far is actually the big winner, receiving more snow than expected. As of 7 a.m. Braintree and West Newbury had already received 8.5 inches of new snow. 

 So far at least, the heaviest snow has actually been a little north of places like Bennington and Brattleboro, but they have gotten wet snow there, too. 

The snow is a little wetter and soggier than at least I anticipated in southern and eastern Vermont. This has messed with power lines and trees.  As many as 3,400 homes and businesses were without power, mostly in southern Vermont early this morning.

I anticipate more issues along those lines until the snow tapers off toward noon.

Expect a nightmare of a morning commute in the heavier snow zone, all through central and southern Vermont. 

Vermont Agency of Transportation web cams showed snow covered, slippery roads in much of the state.

Vermont Agency of Transportation web cam along 
Route 7 in Brandon also depicts slow going in
snow early this morning. 

Do note there are a TON of school closings and delays in central and southern Vermont. 

A zone from Burlington into areas north of Montpelier and along the Canadian border are only getting light snow this morning. 

 In the far northwestern tip of Vermont, it's a nothingburger. Here in St. Albans, we had an inch of snow early in the storm. As of 7 a.m., it hadn't snowed here in hours.  There were signs on radar, though, that light snow might briefly move back north into Franklin County.

That band of snow in southern and central Vermont will hold on for a few hours yet. Things will taper off this afternoon, but until then, the substantial snowstorm is on.  I'm thinking some spots in central Vermont will over-perform with this and receive a little more snow than anticipated. 

UP NEXT

The weather will be quiet tonight, but things are now looking interesting Tuesday morning, especially in  northern Vermont. 

A cold front looks like it might have enough energy to kick off some fairly heavy snow showers. Temperatures could also briefly get above freezing, then drop back below 32 degrees. That's a recipe for briefly, but surprisingly icy roads. So we'll watch for that. 

The big news of course, is the next substantial storm due Wednesday night and Thursday. Early guesses are this one will be windier than the one we're having, and could still involve some freezing rain. 

It's too early to say where the heaviest precipitation will set up with this one. It looks like the National Weather Service is wisely focusing on the current storm. Once it gets out of our hair, more detailed computer forecasting guidance will have come in later today, and we can start hearing some more details on how this one will affect us. 

Still Icky In Vermont Today As Temperatures Drop, And A Little Snow Arrives

My driveway in St. Albans, Vermont was rather slippery this
morning after a night of drenching rains with temperatures
barely above freezing. The pavement on the driveway
was still at or below freezing, so ice formed. 

 Last night played out pretty much as expected, though parts of north central and northeastern Vermont got a surprise little bit of snow overnight, in addition to the rain and freezing rain. 

As of 7 a.m., everybody in Vermont was rain, with still a few pockets of freezing rain here and there in the protected valleys east of the Green Mountains. There wasn't enough ice to cause many problems with trees and power lines thank goodness.  The most ice I've seen in Vermont is a manageable 0.12 inches in Springfield. 

VTOutages.org reported just 26 customers without power in Windsor County as of 6:30 a.m., but the number of power outages in Vermont around midnight was closer to 500. All due to areas of wet snow mixed with a bit of freezing rain.

I've noticed there's quite a few school closings and delays across Vermont today, so check your local listings. The kiddos might not have classes today. 

Be careful on the roads on the way to work this morning, especially from the Green Mountains east. There's still some slick areas.

Meanwhile, rain was about to go over to snow in far northwestern Vermont as of 7 a.m. In northern New York precipitation stayed as a mix or freezing rain all night, except in the western Champlain Valley. 

But the snow was advancing east just before dawn. It'll probably be going over to snow in the northwestern tip of Vermont in Alburgh by 8 or 9 a.m. From there, it will advance south and east toward Burlington by say, 11 a.m. or so, give or take an hour or two. 

North-central Vermont should get into a little snow by early afternoon.

As the snow advances, the best moisture with the storm will be waning.  So the further south and east you go, the less snow will fall.  Nobody in Vermont, anyway, will see a blockbuster. I'm thinking as much as four inches in isolated spots in the high elevations of northwestern Vermont, down to 1 to 3 inches in the Champlain Valley from Burlington north and in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

Generally speaking almost everybody south and east of a Burlington to Newport line should get less than an inch. The lower Connecticut River valley should see nada. 

As you can tell, the expected snowfall isn't all that impressive, but there will probably be an outsized effect on travel later this morning and afternoon, especially northwest. Temperatures will be falling so water from last night's rains will be freezing, with the snow added to it. 

Road crews will be out salting and clearing any accumulation, of course. But as temperatures continue to slowly decline all day, we'll see roads repeatedly re-freezing. Light snow well into the evening will add to the hazards.  So, especially during the day and in the evening commute, take your time, even on the main roads.

Last evening, there were some uncertain signs that a new, developing storm way off the coast of New England might start heading toward the northwest on Sunday, which raised the risk of clouds and a little snow in eastern Vermont. 

That seemed to be looking a lot less likely this morning, so the weekend will be quiet and cold. Lows will be in the single numbers with the cold spots a couple degrees below zero, and daytime highs will only make it into the low and mid 20s.