Winter Storm Watches Remain In Vermont/Northeast As Snow Forecast Stays Consistent (For Now)

Latest snow prediction map from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington. In Vermont, it still
generally looks like the further south you go 
tomorrow, the more snow you'll get. 

 Overnight the forecast for our upcoming snow hasn't changed all that much in the the Northeast. 

To catch you up, a storm is forecast to rocket northeastward from the Gulf Coast this evening to near or offshore of Cape Cod tomorrow evening. 

Even if the storm had the perfect track to give the region heavy snow, the accumulations wouldn't be extreme, just because the storm wouldn't hang around long enough to dump much fluff.

So far, the Tuesday forecast has a track that would dump the heaviest snow in a band from northeast Pennsylvania, through central New York, central New England and on to southern Maine. 

So far, it looks like most people in this winter storm watch band would receive a quick six to ten inches of snow, more or less.

That's not a spectacular storm, but a sufficient enough thump to get winter started in places that haven't yet seen that much snow so far this winter.

For us in Vermont, southern parts of the state still seem to be in that band of heaviest snow. The winter storm watch is still in effect for the southern half of the state. 

Later today, I'm guessing at least the southern part of that watch zone might turn into a winter storm warning. I'm suspecting central Vermont might end up with a winter weather advisory, since some places north of Route 4 might not get quite to six inches of snow with this. (Usually, a snowfall of over six inches triggers a winter storm warning, while a winter weather advisory goes up for less than that.)

First guesses -based on subject-to-change National Weather Service forecasts - are for six to eight inches along and south of a line roughly from Rutland to Wells River.  The rest of central Vermont should get three to six inches. Northwest portions of Vermont look to be in the two or three inch range at the moment. 

No promises here, but if the snow predictions are adjusted between now and tomorrow, I think the adjustment might be toward slightly lower amounts. 

The timing of this snow is problematic. It'll start to snow probably around the time of the Tuesday morning commute. That makes me nervous because people leave home when it's not really snowing much but then quickly encounter snow and icy roads.

But they're "late" for work, so it's pedal to the metal despite the road conditions. Which leads to crashes and traffic jams. Which makes everyone late for work - or worse. 

The snow will start to taper off at about the time people are heading home from work or just afterwards.  You can see in the timing how quick this thing is.

AFTER THE SNOW

While Wednesday looks pretty quiet and a kind of on the cold side, we're still seeing trouble on Thursday. That Arctic front we've been talking about still looks to be on schedule. We still think it might come through in the morning. 

The timing might be bad again, as there might be dangerous snow squalls for your morning commute. We'll update you on that. 

We're still sure it will turn terribly cold during the day Thursday and that will last well into Friday. Strong northwest winds and crashing temperatures will make Thursday afternoon and evening miserable. By Friday morning, most of us will probably be with a few degrees of zero. Which is a little earlier in the season than we're used to. 

The cold will let up by the weekend, but temperatures will still remain below normal.

Winter is here.