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| Expected rainfall with our upcoming storm is still close to an inch or so. That, combined with melting snow, might set off some scattered flooding on Friday. |
So let's get into what we think will happen with this storm, based on what the National Weather Service in South Burlington has assembled for us.
WIND, ROUND ONE
Wind storms have caused widespread damage across the western half of the U.S, and some of that energy will affect Vermont with this storm.
The first places in Vermont to see the wind will be the Champlain Valley, as south winds ahead of the storm funnel up the valley this afternoon and overnight.
A wind advisory is up for the Champlain Valley from noon today until 7 a.m. Friday. Those gusts could reach as high as 50 or 55 mph, so expect a few power outages. There's a lot of Christmas decorations out there. If you have 'em, it might be a good idea to go out and secure them this morning, or take them indoors temporarily.
If you do take them indoors, you might not want to put them back out until Saturday. More on that in a bit.
Elsewhere in Vermont, today and tonight will be blustery but it won't be as bad as in the Champlain Valley.
Temperatures that were below freezing for awhile this morning will rise all day and through the night, rising through the 30s today and 40s tonight.
We won't see much rain with this storm probably until after midnight. Once it starts to rain in earnest, the wind might diminish somewhat in most, but not all areas. A few unpredictable pockets could still have some strong winds. And it will remain rather gusty in the Champlain Valley even after the rain gets going in the hours before dawn Friday.
In other words, expect a noisy night.
RAIN/FLOOD RISK
Overall, NWS/Burlington expects about an inch of rain more or less across Vermont. Really, between about 0.75 and 1.25 inches. That warm weather overnight an early Friday will add another inch or snow of "rain" in the form of snowmelt from the mountains.
Most of this would come within about 18 hours, so that's a pretty fast flush of water into Vermont's rivers. That could be enough to set of some minor flooding. Most of the rain would come between about 3 a.m. and noon Friday, give or take a couple hours either side.
For now, the Mad River at Moretown is forecast to rise to just under minor flood stage around noon tomorrow. The Otter Creek at Center Rutland would be just under flood stage Friday afternoon or evening.
As of early this morning, there's not yet forecast peak river level forecasts for the Winooski, Lamoille, Missisquoi, Passumpsic and other Vermont rivers, but I'm sure you'll see sharp rises with those.
Also some small streams might get too rowdy, there might be some street flooding, and newly created ponds in some backyards. State highways for the morning commute will probably become Hydroplane Hell.
The river crest forecasts we have are not set in stone, so keep an eye out if you live or drive or work in a flood-prone spot. This storm reminds me a little of the one we got in December, 2023. That one produced unexpectedly destructive flooding across much of Vermont.
I do NOT expect things to get nearly as bad as December, 2023. We won't have as much rain, and it won't rain for as long a period as it did in 2023. The ground before tomorrow's storm is drier than in 2023 and river levels before the storm are lower than in 2023. Which is why we won't have a repeat of that December flood two years ago.
However, given how much moisture this storm has, and how climate change has sometimes made storms more intense than expect, it's possible we'll be surprised in the end with a few flood-closed roads and maybe even a few basements with water in them.
Overall, it will be a wet feet kind of day on Friday.
WIND, ROUND TWO
The storm's strong cold front should blow through Vermont between mid morning and mid-afternoon. At least that's the timing we're thinking at this point.
It looks like the cold front will come through with a big gush of wind and rain. It'll essentially act like a squall. The high winds with it won't last long, but they'll do their best to tear down some trees, branches and power lines during their brief, loud visit.
Once we get through that, winds will pick up from the west and become gusty Friday afternoon and night. This time, the strongest winds would be along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains, Especially the southern Green Mountains. Another wind advisory is in effect for southern Vermont tonight through early Saturday.
Temperatures will be dropping through the afternoon and evening, eventually freezing things up. Rain will change to snow, although there won't be much of it. It'll be less than an inch, except maybe a bit more in the mountains.
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