Weather Patterns Are Setting Up For A Shift, That Doesn't Necessarily Mean Nicer Vermont Weather

Still looking blizzardy this morning along Route 105
in Jay, Vermont. Nearby Jay Peak Resort received
about a foot and a half of snow in the past 24 hours. 

Instead of getting colder and colder overnight like it usually does in a Vermont winter, it actually warmed up a tiny bit in the wee hours of this morning. 

It was still chilly for sure as dawn broke, with temperatures mostly in the teens. But what's with the slight warming? Winds were still coming out of the northwest, shouldn't be getting even colder?

Usually, it would. But remember that storm that gave most of us several inches of snow on Wednesday? It's now a slow, big lumbering thing up in the Canadian Maritimes. 

It's pulling in air off the North Atlantic, swinging it westward across Quebec and them southward into New England. That Atlantic air is cold, but not nearly as cold as the stuff coming out of the far north Canadian Arctic. 

So we warmed up a teensy bit. We'll take any victory against the icebox whether we can get. By the way, a quick spoiler: It's eventually going to warm up a fair amount. More on that in a bit. 

Since this morning's air originated from over the cold Atlantic waters, it's kind of moist. Which explains the clouds and flurries that are still hanging tough in much of Vermont, especially central and north.  At least in the valleys. 

This whole thing is a perfect setup for a lot of snow in the northern Green Mountains, and sure enough, they've been getting it. 

Stowe Mountain Resort reports seven inches of new snow in the 24 hours ending at dawn today. They've already had a really impressive 97 inches of snow this season, at least according to the resort workers who measure all that fluff. 

Smugglers' Notch had five inches of new snow for a season total so far of 106 inches. 

The "Jay Cloud" works overtime when the north winds suck moisture off the cold Atlantic waters. The Jay Peak Resort in far northern Vermont was reporting 16 to 20 inches of new snow in the past 24 hours and it was still snowing. 

The northern Green Mountains can expect a few more inches of snow today before the winds finally die down and shift. 

NEXT FEW DAYS

Vermont has a quiet, cold weekend on tap. A weak system will throw a few more flurries and snow showers our way, mostly Saturday afternoon and evening. Most places will get less than an inch of snow out of this, with our way.

The next in a series of cold waves starts Sunday and lasts into Tuesday. Unlike this past Monday, low temperatures for most of us will be in the single digits above zero, not below. The only truly cold day will be Monday, with highs in the teens. It'll be in the still rather chilly but ridiculous 20s for highs Sunday and Tuesday. 

DROUGHT UPDATE

As an aside, the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor came out Thursday and it shows Vermont conditions absolutely unchanged from the week before. The drought is still largely over in western Vermont and continues in the east. 

Places outside the mountains did not get all that much precipitation in the past week, and what did fall came as snow. Snow doesn't help with drought conditions until it melts, so it's just banked moisture.

I had to shovel a path through the snow in part of my yard yesterday (long story as to why).  I noticed the snow came so fast this year that the ground is still not frozen, despite the subzero temperatures earlier this week. 

I don't know if that unfrozen ground is widespread across Vermont. But if it is, the muddy surface beneath the snow would readily absorb water when the snow melts. 

I bring this up because it looks like a little thawing might be coming our way.  

PATTERN CHANGE

It's still looking like the whole of the United State will have a big shift in the weather after the latest cold spell comes through. Most of the Lower 48 looks like they'll have a balmy time of it starting the middle of next week and going through Christmas.

Notice I said "most of the Lower 48"  Any warmup here in Vermont is uncertain. Cold air will be lurking through the month just north of the border. That cold air can easily slip south out of Quebec right past Highgate, Derby Line, Alburgh and Norton.

The bottom line is it looks like Vermont will start to have shots at some thawing weather between now and Christmas, but it won't necessarily be super warm. 

It does look like it will get above freezing toward the second half of next week. How much above and how long a thaw might last is still TBA.