Upcoming Storm Still Threatening Minor Flooding, Wind, Maybe Late Snow Switch-Over In Vermont

If anything, rainfall amounts in the Northeast have 
increased for the upcoming storm, with two
inches of rain possible in some spots. Flooding
looks likely in Vermont, but it won't be nearly
as bad as the disasters we had this past summer.

Vermont is having a spell of quiet winter cold, but a long-advertised spell of nasty storminess is still on the horizon. And it's still bad news for snow lovers.

If this pans out as forecast, the storm Sunday and early Monday will dump upwards of two inches of rain on at least some of Vermont. That's quite a big amount for a storm this time of year.

Flooding is widely expected with this storm, but at least meteorologists seem pretty confident at this point that it won't be nearly as bad as the inundations we suffered through this past summer. 

Still, I envision low-lying roads closing, some basements flooding, standing water in a lot of areas. Even those minor effects are a pain, especially after the year we had.

Ahead of the storm, a sharp warming trend will begin to stir Friday, then really take hold Saturday. By afternoon Saturday, we should be well into the 40s and the surprisingly deep mountain snow for this time of year will begin to melt. 

The real action starts Sunday. Temperatures will soar into the low 50s in some areas and rain will develop. By Sunday night, it will be raining pretty hard statewide. 

The good news is the downpours won't last all that long.  The rain will probably be tapering off and/or changing to snow late Sunday night or Monday morning. That's different from the soggy weather fronts that stalled over or near Vermont over the summer. Those laggard fronts ensured heavy rain would last a long time, sealing our disastrous fate.

This time, the rain will shut off before things get really out of control. Melting snow will add to the runoff, so that's another reason we'll have some flooding.

Given that it's only Thursday, changes are inevitable with this forecast. The biggest question mark is when rain will change to snow, and how much snow will fall once the changeover starts. Early indications are it won't amount to much, except perhaps in the northern mountains. Still, there's enough time for surprises to hit. 

Even though a lot of snow will melt in the mountains, not all of it will go.  The rain and thaw won't last long enough to get rid of it all at elevations above 1,500 to 2,000 feet. So winter sports won't be completely ruined by this. 

After we get through this storm, the days afterward should turn quieter and generally not particularly cold for December for at least a few days.  

The March Spring Thaw Is Both Ugly And Beautiful. In Video And Pics

The March melt and mud season in Vermont isn't the 
state's prettiest look, but it can have its quiet
anticipatory beauty. 

 March in Vermont this year is turning out the way it was when I was a kid decades ago

As we get into the closing week of the month, the snow cover is finally starting to lose the battle to spring. But only grudgingly.

Video of this year's March melt and mud is at the bottom of this post.  

 One day we have some strong sun that opens up more bare patches in the reflected sun's heat near the pine trees. The next day, rain washes some of the crusty old ice and snow away.  

It's an old fashioned year. Under our  climate change regime, we've gotten these weird, warm days in March which disappeared early in the month, and got the crocuses blooming way early - sometimes by St. Patrick's Day. 

Not this year. It actually feels a bit novel to have a throwback March like this. Though even this March is running somewhat warmer in Vermont than the long term average.  

This isn't the prettiest time of year. Old snow sort of half-heartedly glows under the overcast next to expanses of brown grass in open fields. Mud is everywhere. Along road sides, litter that has been buried in snow now glares at us with its own ugliness as we pass by in our mud-flecked and road salt encrusted cars. 

But this "ugly"  seasons is also hopeful, and in a strange way beautiful. On rainy days, the fog curls over remaining patches of snow, as if the damp south wind is trying to steam away the remaining ice. The melting snow and is cheered on by the calls of newly arrived red wind blackbirds. 

Garden plants have gotten used to getting an early start, thanks partly to climate change. This year, an odd, balmy January got daffodils, crocuses trying to come up in mid-January. Only to be denied in active. February and March snowfalls.

These daffodil shoots in St. Albans, Vermont aren't waiting
for the snow to melt to get on with the spring show. 

But the head start was already there, so these early perennials are in a premature schedule. It looks like they're saying, "Screw it. I know there's still a bunch of snow on the ground, but I'm coming on strong anyway."

 So daffodil shoots are popping up through the tops of fading snowbanks. 

Spring this year continues on in its uncertain fashion.  A new storm is probably going to give us a headache inducing mix of rain, ice and snow Saturday and Saturday night. 

Current forecasts don't indicate too much snow and ice accumulation in the valleys, but you never known. We could end up being tricked. Even if we don't. it'll slow down our spring melt a bit.  

There's also no spectacularly warm spring days in the immediate forecast. Eventually, real spring will come. But the tentative daffodil shoots, the mud and yes, even the roadside litter gives us hope that greener, warmer days are around the corner.   

Watch the video below to see what I mean by all this. It starts with a sunny phase of the thawing Wednesday, and moves on to the rainy phase on Thursday. Either click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on that.