Gulf Tropical Trouble Brews While Immediate East Coast Harassed By Offshore Storms

Not a lot of organized storminess off the East Coast
in this satellite photo taken this morning. But what
there is out there, combined with an easterly flow
and King Tides, is causing damaging coastal flooding
from New England to Florida. 

 While we in Vermont remain in dry, pleasant and for the most part rather sunny weather, right along East Coast it's been a different story. 

The same blocked weather pattern that has kept fair weather high pressure nearby, which has been shunting rain away from Vermont, stalled storminess off the coast has been causing trouble. 

 On top of all that, later this week could bring new tropical trouble to the Gulf Coast. More on that in a bit. 

COASTAL FLOODS/RAINS

Southeastern New England has taken much of the brunt of this. Over the past two or three days, Cape Cod, Massachusetts has gotten two to as much as 6.5 inches of rain from a persistent onshore flow from that offshore storminess. 

Orleans, Massachusetts had more than nine inches of rain within about three and a half days. 

Scituate, Massachusetts is famous for those big storm waves crashing into seaside homes during nor'easters, and this offshore storm brought more of the same to the town.

But Scituate had another big problem to deal with. One of those oceanside homes caught fire.  The strong winds fanned the flames, so the house was destroyed and two adjacent ones damaged. No word on whether the waves and wind helped cause the blaze. 

The Cape Cod rain there has tapered off and the sun has actually been out on and off up and down the rest of the East Coast. But the storminess, and easterly wind flow and seasonal King Tides are causing coastal flooding from New England to Florida. 

Much of this is classic "sunny weather" coastal flooding. Sea level rise brought on by climate change has led to bouts of flooding even when there's not much in the way of a storm to push water inland. 

Screen grab of video of Rodanthe, North Carolina
as erosion eats away at the coast.  Since this video
was taken last week the two houses on the right
that are in the water collapsed into the ocean. 

In Rodanthe, North Carolina on the outer banks, two more houses collapsed into the ocean this weekend as high tides and battering waves smashed into the eroding coastline. So far nine homes have fallen into the sea in that town in recent years, including four this year.  

One of those houses just collapsed in August as Hurricane Ernesto passed by far, far offshore.  Other homes there are teetering and ready to go. 

Coastal flood warnings remain in effect up and down the East Coast today. The flooding in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Virginia might well be high enough later today and tonight to cause damage to seaside homes and businesses.

GULF HURRICANE?

Something seems to be brewing off the coast of Mexico, and that could cause trouble for the United States Gulf Coast later this week. 

There's not even any kind of storm yet, but unsettled weather in the western Caribbean Sea seems like it wants to eventually organize into a possible tropical storm. If that happens, most of the computer models take it north to eventually hit somewhere between Louisiana and Florida.

It's way too soon to figure out how big this thing will get, and who knows? It might not ever get its act together. But the Gulf of Mexico waters are super warm, and that's jet fuel for wannabe hurricanes. It all depends on whether atmospheric winds will support a would be tropical storm.

Since it's way to early to figure out if there will be a Gulf of Mexico hurricane and where it would go, it's even harder to figure out whether that thing will have any effect on us here in Vermont. Bottom line: We have no idea whether we'll see the effects of it here. 

Signs continue to point to a somewhat wetter pattern over us, which would keep the weather unsettled over us here in Vermont during the second half of the upcoming week. 

A storm system coming in from the west looks like it will bring us some showers. There's a low chance moisture from any tropical system in the South could get pulled up this way to give us heavy rains. But the odds really seem stacked against that scenario. At least if most long range forecasts pan out. 

In fact, we might only have a brief showery period late in the week before persistent dry weather re-establishes itself over us. 

Time will tell.

 

Historic Cape Cod House Miraculously Survives Nor'easter, Will Live Another Day

This historic house teetering on the eroding dunes in Truro,
Massachusetts narrowly escaped falling into the Atlantic
Ocean during a late January nor'easter. It was moved
back from the brink shortly after the storm.  Photo
by David Ryan, Boston Globe. 

The day before a huge nor'easter struck New England on January 29, images of a house in Truro, Massachusetts made the rounds.  It was teetering over the edges of fast-eroding sand dunes. 

The house on outer Cape Cod would surely succumb to the waves the next day. 

It would have been a shame, really.  The house was built as long ago as 1850, (nobody is quite sure)  and nobody likes to see historic structures go.

Crews frantically reinforced the pilings under the house hours before the storm arrived and somehow, it worked! More of the sand dunes were swept away in the storm, and the only a small corner of the house was still on land.  But the pilings somehow held.

That would have been a brief victory. The next storm would have finished the house off. But more good fortune arrived. The house has been moved further back and is at a temporary spot firmly on sand dunes. They're looking for a permanent place for it. 

The Boston Globe reports the home is owned by the Dennis family, whoever they are, who could not b reached for comment.  The Dennises paid to move the house to its temporary spot off the stilts.  They'll need to obtain permits from the town of Truro to move it to a permanent location. 

I do hope that works out, as the historic house has gone through so much, so now we're left rooting for it. 

I mean, if walls could talk. The Boston Globe gives us a quick rundown of its history:

"Massachusetts Historical Commission records state that the building was constructed between 1880 and 1890, but Truro assessing records say it was built in 1850. It was originally built as a boathouse for the Pamet Life Saving Station, which had a full time staff that patrolled the beach for wrecks. The building housed rescue boats and eventually converted to a residential cottage after the station closed in the 1940s, according to Massachusetts Historical Commission records."

Cape Cod and the rest of coastal Massachusetts are dense with historic old buildings and houses. There's even an entire HGTV show called "Houses With History" which follows the exploits of three preservationists rescuing houses on parts of Cape Cod and the Massachusetts South Shore.

While many of the historic places in New England are very safe from any coastal erosion, some are not.  A combination of sinking land and rising sea levels due to climate change regularly endanger coastal landmarks. Two Massachusetts light houses had to be moved back from the shore back in 1996, and Nauset Light Bathhouse had to be moved in 2000.

The Boston Globe said many areas on the Cape lose three feet of land per year due to coastal erosion and a single bad storm can erase more than 60 feet of land.  This house in Truro is certainly not the last that will have to be moved inland from the shore on Cape Cod. Or worse, fall into the Atlantic Ocean. 

Cape Cod will continue to ever so slowly shrink as sea levels continue rising and the coastline erodes. Not only is this difficult for the people who have to move buildings, but for the entire communities affected.

Towns and cities in Massachusetts live or die by property tax revenue. Less property, less property taxes.  Plus, the beachfront homes are worth the most, so those create the most tax revenue. Get rid of those homes, and you leave a big hole in the budget. 

These are problems that will gradually keep getting worse as the years and decades go by.  The house in Truro this winter is just one symptom of that.  

Somalia Hurricane; Cape Cod Tornado Alerts: Two Weird Storms

Satellite view of Tropical Cyclone Gati striking
Somalia on Sunday. 

Hurricanes don't hit Somalia.  Tornadoes don't threaten Cape Cod in November. Until now, apparently. 

This past week, Somalia, in Africa, got hit by a compact, but powerful hurricane. 

As NPR reports:

"Tropical Cyclone Gati made landfall in Somalia on Sunday with sustained winds of around 105 mph. It's the first recorded instance of a hurricane - strength system hitting the country. At one point before landfall, Gati's winds were measured at 115 mph." 

This is the strongest tropical system on record in the norther Indian Ocean, and furthest south in the Indian Ocean. Tropical systems sometimes hit further north in Yemen and Oman, but not Somalia. 

Tropical Cyclone Gati also holds the record for the fastest intensification rate for any hurricane type storm in the northern Indian Ocean, with winds ramping up from 40 mph to 115 mph in just 12 hours. 

I have to say this seems consistent with climate change.  Warmer ocean water is fuel for tropical systems.  As larger areas of ocean water become warm enough to sustain hurricanes, chances are new places can be hit, and places that do normally see hurricanes are at risk for stronger ones. 

NPR reports:

"'With climate change were seeing warmer ocean temperatures and a more moist atmosphere that's leading to a greater chance of rapid intensification for tropical cyclones like Gati, meteorologist and climate journalist Eric Holthaus told NPR. 'Gati's strength is part of that broader global pattern of stronger storms.'"

As Gati was developing, it was small in area and came across an area of very light upper level winds, which allowed it to strengthen over warmer than normal Indian Ocean waters. "

 Tropical Cyclone Gati hit the northeastern corner of Somalia, a desert area that normally gets just four inches of rain per year.  Gati was expected to dump twice that in just two days. 

At least eight deaths were reported with Gati.  Widespread flooding hit much of Somalia, and wind damage was severe near where Gati made landfall.  

CAPE COD TORNADO WARNINGS

Tornado warnings went up for Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod in Massachusetts Monday as a rotating thunderstorm swept through the area.  The scary weather was part of a storm system that was just starti to rapidly develop.

This storm brought widespread downpours and thunderstorms to New Jersey, the New York City area and southern New England as it organized. (Vermont got light rain and snow out of this). 

Possible funnel cloud over Cape Cod Monday during a 
tornado warning. Photo by Bart Jarek

Sometimes, the initial formation of what eventually becomes a strong storm can set off severe weather and even tornadoes. That type of thing, however, rarely happens this time of year in New England. 

It was the first time on record that the National Weather Service office in Boston saw fit to issue tornado warnings in November. 

I'm not sure if any tornado touched down in Massachusetts. There was briefly vague signs of a debris in the air near Yarmouth, but it's very unclear if that was produced by a tornado or just gusty winds.  Most of the rotation on radar was rather broad, and not tightly wound in small areas.  That broader rotation could well mean no tornado could get its act together and touch down.

People did report seeing a funnel cloud, and minor wind damage was reported on the Cape. 

I imagine the National Weather Service in Boston might investigate the area today.  

The storms did bring 1.5 to 2.5 inches of much needed rain to good sized chunks of southern New England. The rapidly deepening storm departed, bringing gusty winds and heavy rains to the Canadian Maritimes.