 |
| Hurricane Ernesto today as it began its departure from Bermuda. |
But it's still a busy one, especially since we've already had a few strong ones and it's only mid-August. and there's also plenty of time for the season to really, really ramp up.
The current storm is Hurricane Ernesto, out in the Atlantic Ocean.
Ernesto made landfall on west side of Bermuda at around 4:30 a.m. Saturday with top winds of about 85 mph.
It's a slow mover, so Bermuda was hit by hurricane force winds from Friday night well into today. A third of the island's electricity was out. Bermuda is a rather wealthy nation with sturdy buildings, so not much structural damage is anticipated.
Bermuda is often affected by hurricanes, but since it's such a small target, actual landfalls are relatively rare. It was reportedly the 12th landfalling hurricane on Bermuda since 1850. Of course, scores of other hurricanes whose eyes never touched the island still managed to unleash hurricane force winds there.
Ernesto is something like 1,000 miles off the East Coast of the United States, but its effects are still being felt.
In Rodanthe, on North Carolina's Outer Banks, an oceanfront house collapsed Friday evening into the Atlantic Ocean as swells and high tides from Ernesto hit the East Coast.
Seven houses in Rodanthe have collapsed into the ocean in the past four years due at least in part to sea level rise, climate change and storms. Two of the houses collapsed in May and were on the same block as the one that went Friday.
According to The Island Free Press:
"Chicamacomico Fire and Rescue posted video of the house located at 23214 East Corbina Drive floating into the breakers Friday evening.
Dare County property records show the 1,428 square foot residence was built in 1973, and owned by a couple from Hershey, Pennsylvania. The total tax value of the property and structure was $356,400.
The house, which had been an active vacation rental until earlier this summer, was unoccupied at the time of the collapse. No injuries were reported."
Reports indicate prior storms earlier this summer weakened the house and its supports, making the building unsafe. That's why it was unoccupied on what was otherwise a lovely Cape Hatteras summer Friday evening.
Elsewhere on the East Coast, beachgoers from Atlantic Canada to Florida are advised to be wary of rip currents and high surf emanating from Ernesto.
This year was forecast to be a supercharged hurricane season. There hasn't been a lot of storms at any given time so far.
But this hurricane season has so far been somewhat busier than it looks.
One measure of hurricane activity is something called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE. It's a measurement that incorporates storm intensity and duration.
Because Beryl, Debby and now Ernesto were powerful and lasted quite awhile, the ACE count so far this year is way above normal for this point in August.
The ACE count for the Atlantic hurricane season as of August 15 is a bit under 50, compared to the normal of around 1
The fifth tropical storm of the year, the one that begins with "E" normally on average forms on August 22, so Ernesto was a little early.
The "F" storm, which will be Francine this year, on average forms on August 29. So we'll wait and see whether Francine forms by then or not.
We're waiting and seeing because at the moment, after Ernesto, the folks at the National Hurricane doesn't see anything on the radar forming over the next five days at least. There's still a lot of dry air and some Saharan dust circulating over the tropical Atlantic, which is suppressing tropical storms for now.
Even though forecasts for tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic look fairly minimal in the short term, it could really start popping at the end of this month and in September. By then, dry air is forecast to start moistening up. Ocean temperatures where hurricanes tend to develop are at near record highs. That's jet fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes.
Plus wind shear, which tends to rip apart wannabe tropical storms before they really can get going, typically declines over the tropical Atlantic in late August and September.
No guarantees, but we might not have escaped a wild season just yet. Hell, it's been difficult to begin with. Hurricane Beryl caused damage from the Windward Islands to Texas to Atlantic Canada, including here in Vermont.
Hurricane Debby trashed parts of Florida before causing serious flooding and wind damage in many parts of the eastern U.S. Debby is why we had such a nasty wind storm in Vermont last Friday.
Ernesto, before harassing Bermuda, caused damage in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Whether the rest of the season is busy or not, where hurricanes go is even more important than how many. If big ones keep plowing into land, this could be a super expensive season. If we're fortunately and they keep curving out to sea, then we've obviously dodged a bunch of bullets.
No comments:
Post a Comment