Debby, Flooding And Vermont: What We Know So Far

As of this morning, forecasts have the remnants of
Tropical Storm Debby going right over Vermont
early Saturday. That is actually a slightly better
scenario for us than if it were to go by a bit to
our east. But a big flood risk continues with this.

 As of this Wednesday morning, Vermont meteorologists are keeping a wary eye on Tropical Storm Debby, and what it means for the Green Mountain State.  

There's definitely the potential for additional, possibly serious flooding out of this.

 Just what we don't need given that we've had two big flood disasters last month, and really can't tolerate another.  Debby has already caused some really bad flooding in Georgia and the Carolinas, so we know this is a big bag of torrential rain. 

It's a little soon to guarantee a new flood disaster, but we still ought to be on alert. 

Anytime a tropical system comes our way, there's the potential for flooding.  Soils are already saturated in large sections of Vermont, especially the southern Champlain Valley, the Northeast Kingdom and parts of north-central Vermont. 

At the moment, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has Vermont in a moderate risk zone for flooding Friday. That's level three out of four on an alert scale. It's rare to have a moderate risk posted two or  more days ahead of the event, so that's saying something. 

We know there's the potential for two to four inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. So we should get ready, just in case.  Both flash flooding and main stem river flooding are in play. 

FORECAST TRENDS

If you want to find glimmers of good news, there's a couple, though we are by no means out of danger. 

The expected track of the remnants of Debby, at least according to some computer forecasting models, keeps shifting a bit west.  Whereas almost all of the models yesterday had Debby passing by a little to our east, some of the latest ones have it going right overhead in Vermont. 

That sounds bad, but the heaviest rain with this type of system usually falls to the west of its track, not necessarily right underneath it.  That would put the most torrential rain in northwest New York and southern Quebec. The landscape is flatter there than it is in Vermont. 

In Vermont torrential rains rush off the mountains, leading to our dangerous flash floods. Flatter ground away from the Green Mountain State would minimize that. 

There's already a moderate risk
(Level 3 out of 4 alert level) for
flooding Friday and Saturday in
and around Vermont. 

Another trend we should hope will continue is that some models ramp up the forward speed of Debby's remnants. That means the downpours wouldn't linger as long, leaving less time for rainfall to pile up.

  Instead of soaking rains all day Friday and Saturday, the rain could shut off pretty quickly on Saturday. That is IF the forward track slows down. 

All that said, we shouldn't let our guard down. At all.

First of all, several computer models keep the center of Debby a little to our south and east. That would put Vermont in the crosshairs of the heaviest rains. 

Even if Debby takes a more westward path, we're absolutely not out of the woods. We might see less overall rain that way. Or at least the heaviest rain wouldn't be quite as widespread.

But the rain we'd get with this more inland journey for Debby would tend to come more in the form of intense showers and thunderstorms with super high rainfall rates here in Vermont.  

We saw a hint of that yesterday with an outbreak of downpours ahead of Debby in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York.  Islip, Long Island had about a half inch of rain in just five minutes.  Much of Hackensack, New Jersey was under water last evening. Flash flooding was widespread in that region. 

Those are the kinds of downpours we could see if Debby goes overhead or to our west. These would absolutely pose a nasty flash flood risk. So not great.

The timing of this would put Vermont in a flood risk from Friday morning, lasting well into Saturday.

UNCERTAIN FORECAST STILL

There's still a lot of questions as to Debby's exact path and speed, so there will surely be changes to the forecast leading up to Friday.  What we should hope for is a continued trend westward with Debby.  Again, absolutely no guarantee that will happen.

But the further west it goes, the better off we'll be in general. 

If you live in a flood prone area, now is the time to get ready.  We're a couple days away from the event, so you still have an opportunity to move stuff that can get damaged out of the way, if you can.  Even if we don't end up with a flood, getting ready like that is good practice for the inevitable future floods in Vermont. And if we do see a flood, you will have minimized damage some.

Of course, there's no way to move houses, businesses and farms out of harm's way, so we'd better hope we manage to dodge a bullet here. 

Stay tuned for updates!