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| An outbreak of very intense severe storms is likely in the Upper Midwest today. New England has a much lesser, but still real chance of some severe storms today, too. |
New England and to an extent Vermont is under the gun for severe weather, too, but not nearly to the extent as what's going on in the Upper Midwest. More on New England in a bit.
Today's target area for intense storms seems to be much of South Dakota, the southern half of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is pretty aggressive with their wording regarding the hazards in that neck of the woods. They're expecting supercell thunderstorms to develop in South Dakota, then merge into a bow echo plowing into Minnesota.
A bow echo is a line of often severe thunderstorms, arranged to form what looks like a backwards letter"C." In this case, the supercells and the line of storms are expected to spin off tornadoes. possibly many hurricane-force straight line wind gusts and giant hail.
If this lasts long enough, it would be considered a derecho. A derecho is defined as a line or cluster of severe storms that have a path of at least 240 miles long, with frequent reports of winds at or exceeding 58 mph.
The most destructive thunderstorm in U.S. history was an August, 2020 derecho, mostly in Iowa that caused ??? in damage
Today, after that initial line of storms in South Dakota and Minnesota, the Storm Prediction Center expects another batch of supercells to form in South Dakota. These would again merge and rake many of the same areas that would have had the expected earlier storms with more hurricane force gusts.
There's always a lot of uncertainty with severe weather forecasts, so this likely won't develop exactly as I outlined here. But if you live in the area I outlined, or know somebody who does, they should stay weather aware all day today and well into tonight so they're ready to take cover from what could be some very scary storms.
These storms are hitting an area beset yesterday and today with extreme humidity, which is fueling the expected storms. The dew point, a measure of how humid it is, reached an incredible 81 degrees in Yankton, South Dakota Sunday.
Any dew point over 70 degrees is considered oppressive. Although the actual temperature was only 92 in Yankton Sunday, the heat index was 111 degrees.
NEW ENGLAND
A southward moving disturbance promises to set off scattered storms today, some of which might be severe. Southern New England has the highest risk of damaging winds and large hail in scattered storms.
These southward moving disturbance can set off surprises. An initial ripple in the atmosphere touched off some rather isolated, but slow-moving storms over the Lake Champlain islands overnight. Parts of Grand Isle County, Vermont had more than two inches of rain from these. Meanwhile, not that far away in St. Albans, I received a meager 0.15 inches. In Burlington, no measurable rain fell.
Today's storms, including the risk of a strong one, could hit anywhere, but are most likely east of Lake Champlain, and probably south of Route 2. Already this morning a few downpours formed in central Vermont and had begun working their way towards the southeast.
That doesn't mean areas in the Adirondacks or close to the Canadian border are off hook. Some scattered downpours developed in the Adirondacks a little before noon, and I wouldn't be surpise
A few more shower and storms might develop further north later, then move southeast. We'll wait and see on that.
The chances that storms will grow big enough to produce local instances of damaging winds and hail are definitely greater in southern New England than here in Vermont. Still, we might see isolated instances of trouble over the afternoon in the Green Mountain State.
Things should simmer down by the time sunset rolls around this evening.
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