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| Tropical Storm Debby had "that look" on satellite photos this morning that suggested it wants to intensify pretty fast before making landfall in northwestern Florida sometime on Monday. |
I decided to wait until late this morning to post, so I could get the most updated information on the tropical storm. Debby's top sustained winds had increased to 65 mph by late this morning. It's getting close to becoming a hurricane.
Debby is taking full advantage of extremely warm waters in the eastern Gulf of Mexico so that it is getting stronger pretty quickly and will be a hurricane when it makes landfall in what is known as Florida's Big Bend on Monday.
That Big Bend is the area in northwest Florida where the peninsula bends and transitions to the Florida panhandle.
Anyway, the forecast looks very sure on its path to that landfall, and there's even a chance it could be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. (That would mean sustained winds of at least 96 mph).
After that, forecasters have serious questions as to what Debby will do next, but significant to maybe catastrophic flooding (here we go again!) is likely somewhere in the Southeast.
Meanwhile, up here in Vermont, we have our own forecasts questions, unrelated, at least for now to Tropical Storm Debby. More on that further down.
DEBBY
This is becoming an unpleasant trend. Climate change and other factors have led to record or near record high water temperatures in most of the areas where hurricanes form and grow. This is jet fuel for hurricanes, and we keep seeing hurricanes become monsters as a result.
That's why Hurricane Beryl earlier this summer managed to become a Category 5 beast in the Caribbean. It's why Hurricane Michael back in 2018 was able to slam into roughly the same spot in Florida as a Category 5 calamity that Debby will hit. The hot water is one major reason why we had so many other intense hurricanes in recent years.
The saving grace with Debby is it won't have all that much time over water where it can strengthen. It only has about 24 hours to do so. But a lot can change in a day, so we'll really have to watch the intensity of this thing.
Debby already had those sustained winds of 65 mph late this morning, as mentioned.As you can see in the visible satellite photo of Debby this morning it has "that look" that suggests it really wants to turn powerful. The inner core of the storm still wasn't completely well organized as of early this morning. How fast that core gets its act together will determine how strong it gets.
One rather ominous sign is that Debby was showing signs of forming a central eye late this morning, indicating that its organizational skills are pretty good.
In any event, Florida's Big Bend can expect damaging winds, a ferocious, destructive storm surge and torrential rains. The storm surge could be made bigger by two factors: Debby's overall size is pretty big, which means it can push more water into a storm surge. Also, that bend in the coastline along that part of Florida can compress incoming water from the left and right, causing higher surges.
That's why mandatory evacuations are ongoing today in areas near where Debby will make landfall.
That torrential rain will become the main, worrisome feature of Debby in the coming days.
Uncertain Path, Big Rain Dump
The trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere that is steering Debby toward Florida's Big Bend is dissipating and moving on, which will leave very little to push Debby in any particular direction after it makes landfall.
When hurricanes make landfall, their strong winds quickly collapse into much lighter breezes. But these systems generate torrential rainfall for days after landfall. That's part of the reason we had a destructive flood here in Vermont back on July 10-11. The remnants of Hurricane Beryl, which had made landfall in Texas days earlier, was able to contribute torrential downpours to a stalled weather front over Vermont.
One problem is we don't know if the center of Debby will linger inland over the Southeast, or manage to make its way just off the coast of Georgia or South Carolina. Either way, destructive flooding from inland downpours is inevitable. But if Debby goes off the coast, it'll have a chance to re-strengthen before moving back inland.
No matter what happens, Debby is going to be a big problem in the Southeast starting today and going right through the week.
In fact, due in part to Debby, more than enough rain to cause flooding is a decent bet at various times from now through next weekend anywhere from Florida to Maine. Which leads us to talk about Vermont.
Spoiler: It's not dire, but we do have to watch the weather.
VERMONT FORECAST
The humidity grinds on. We are now on Day 6 in a row at Burlington in which the temperature failed to dip below 70 degrees. Saturday was the 14th day this year in Burlington which made it to 90 degrees. That's a tie for seventh most in a year.
The Lake Champlain lake temperature was bath water this morning - 82 degrees which has to be a record high.
We have 24 hours of oppressive humidity left in Vermont before the long awaited big change comes. Maybe a little more than 24 hours south. But it's coming.
Until then, we have the ever-present risk of torrential showers and thunderstorms. They're always a risk in this kind of weather.
Seems like every thunderstorm makes you worry, because we're spooked by the twin flash floods of July, and the other floods we endured last year.
One storm popped up near Bolton and Huntington last evening that lingered for a bit. But luckily, it moved on and weakened just before it could cause major trouble. I noticed a flood advisory for a corner of far southwestern Vermont early this morning, and locally heavy rain was going on in spots in far southern parts of the state as of mid-morning.
More hit and miss storms are a good bet this afternoon and evening. Once again, many places won't see anything. Other places will get a quick drenching but otherwise not a big deal. But isolated places once again face the risk of microbursts, which would cause small pockets of wind damage, and isolated flash floods.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us at a marginal risk (level one of five) of severe storms today. Southern Vermont is under a marginal risk (level one of four) of flash flooding today. I think northern Vermont has a very low, but not zero chance of one or two flash floods. NOT a panic moment, for sure.
Monday
The risk of severe storms and flash flooding will rise somewhat in Vermont as that long-awaited cold front comes in. It'll arrive early enough north of Route 2 to suggest the risk of severe storms is very, very low. We are under a marginal risk of flash flooding in all but far southern Vermont due to some downpours expected along the front.
But in central and southern Vermont, there is the risk of severe storms. Morning sunshine will increase instability before the cold front pushes in, so we'll have time to see scattered severe storms to develop. Those areas are under level 2 risk of severe storms.
Although rain might linger into the evening, we're still expecting the start of the longest period of coolish, low humidity days we've seen in quite some time. Tuesday through Thursday look great, though some minor questions in the forecast mean there's a non-zero chance of light showers Tuesday, and maybe Thursday.
Beyond that, we have HUGE question marks. During our break from the oppressive weather, that deep heat and moisture will be lurking not too far to our south. It could surge back northwards at least briefly toward the end of the week. Plus nobody has any idea what Debby or its remnants might do.
So stay tuned on that.
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