Nor'easter Continues Its Storm Surge And Rough Surf Slog Today

Flooding from the nor'easter in North Wildwood,
New Jersey Sunday. Photo from Chris 
Sowers via Facebook. 

 The nor'easter that has been hammering away at the East Coast was still at it this morning, battering shorelines from the Carolinas to Long Island.  

It's a long slog with such a slow-moving storm. It caused damage Sunday, and we'll do it again today. In fact, today will probably we worse, with even more extensive storm surges, flooding and serious beach erosion.

This nor'easter is truly a coastal storm. Almost all the problems it's causing is right along the shore. If you go a couple miles inland, the storm has been causing unpleasant weather to be sure, but not much damage. 

To be sure, the entire I-95 urban corridor from Virginia to New England is miserable, with soaking rains, gusty winds and chilly temperatures. Winds have gusted as high as 58 mph on Long Island.  

Up here in Vermont, the storm, such as it is, seems to be playing out as expected. See further down for Green Mountain State details.

The real problem today will continue to be the storm surges. From about North Carolina north, today's high tides will be the worst of the lot. 

In North Carolina, the storm surges might not be quite as high as Sunday's but they'll be close. The Outer Banks have been battered by huge waves for days, so even if today's tides aren't as strong as Sunday's, they have the potential to create added damage.   

We've been watching homes on the verge of collapse into the ocean and that might happen today. A green house that's been getting hit day after day lost many of its decks Sunday, and the pilings beneath the house look displaced and cracked. Other houses look just as rickety.  

In a video, the News & Observer likened the threatened homes to "terminal patients."

Streets in Jersey Shore communities like North Wildwood were under water Sunday during high tide and the water is forecast to be even deeper today.  Similar scenes hit shoreline towns in Long Island. 

In Delaware, a voluntary evacuation was underway at Bowers Beach due to the destruction from waves. Quite a bit of damage and flooding is anticipated at Delaware resorts like Rohoboth and Bethany beaches. 

The biggest threat for damage in the Northeast today is along Green South Bay Long Island and Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, where major flooding is predicted with today's high tides. 

Holiday events continue to be canceled due to the weather. New York City's 81st annual Columbus Day parade is among the cancelations. 

Southern New England is on the edge of the nor'easter's destructive, with coastal flood advisories up in Connecticut and Rhode Island, Wind warnings and advisories are in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Things are playing out pretty much as expected in the Green Mountain State today. Southern Vermont is getting a rainy, and in some places windy Monday. The rain is creeping north while weakening. 

Rainfall totals still look like they'll be somewhere near an inch down by Brattleboro. They'll taper off pretty quickly as you head north. Those of us near the Canadian border an expect only a tenth of an inch or less. 

The clouds and rain will keep temperatures down in the 50s today. 

It's going to be a cool week, as brisk north winds take hold especially between Tuesday night and Friday morning. Highs most days will be in the 50s, with maybe even some upper 40s in higher elevations north. 

We'll have to watch things on Thursday, especially north. Those areas won't get much rain. The humidity is expected to get quite low by Thursday. Gusty north winds might well create another big fire hazard. We're getting sick of that situation, but we're stuck with it until our drought eases some.

A little help might in about a week. Long range forecasts are hinting at some rain next Sunday or Monday. 

That Was A Weird Storm That Rolled Through Saturday

Possible tornado damage in Mastic, Long
Island, New York Saturday. Photo from
Twitter Alison Michelle

Even if there was nothing that odd for November weather right at your home for the past couple of days, New England has just experienced two weird storms, with Saturday being the most remarkable.

For two days in a row, there were tornado warnings in New England, a super rarity, especially for this time of year. Over in New York, at least one tornado touched down Friday in the lower Hudson Valley.  

Even stranger, the two islands off of southeast Massachusetts had this:  Nantucket was under a tornado warning for a time Friday.  Then Saturday, Martha's Vineyard had a tornado warning.  This ain't exactly tornado alley, folks!  

Judging from radar and reports of pockets of pretty intense wind damage in Long Island and in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island.

I bet at least a couple tornadoes did touch down yesterday. Crews from National Weather Service offices will inspect the damage today to determine if the damage was caused by straight line winds or tornadoes.

Here's another oddity:  Two tropical storms made landfall in Westerly, Rhode Island this year. The odds of that happening are next to nil. Now, it's also possible there was a tornado in Westerly yesterday. Not sure, but possible. That's under investigation.

Here in Vermont, the storm Saturday wasn't nearly that dire, but it sure was interesting. Relatively rare thundersnow crackled over the far southern Green Mountains. 

This storm in the Northeast also had a lot of hail, also odd for November. Hail reached as far north as St. Albans, Vermont. A brief, heavy burst of small hail rolled through here during the mid afternoon.

Rainfall was heavier than expected, especially in western Vermont. Burlington logged 0.86 inches, and my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans caught about the same amount. 

As expected, rain turned to snow in much of Vermont during the evening.  Precipitation tapered off before it could get cold enough for snow in the Champlain Valley, but much of the rest of the state had some. 

Snowfall reports for Vermont were sparse as I wrote this early Sunday evening. There was 3.6 near Readsboro last evening. Shortly before 6 p.m., two inches was reported in Shrewsbury, and it was still snowing at a pretty good clip at the time. Judging from web cams I looked at this morning, amounts over two inches in Vermont from this storm are pretty few and far between. 

During the changeover to snow, at one point, normally warm spot Bennington in far southwestern Vermont was snowing, while high elevation and normally cold Jay Peak was still raining. (It eventually switched to snow at Jay).

Vermont Agency of Transportation web cam shows a winter
wonderland this morning along Route 9 near Searsburg,
Vermont.

All this weirdness with Saturday's storm had a lot to do with its orientation and how it interacted with airflow in higher levels of the atmosphere. 

Storms usually form along the right side of U-shaped southward dips in the jet stream.

The bottom of the U-shaped dip in the jet stream was tilted so that the bottom of the U pointed toward the southeast, not due south.  

When this happens, there's more lift in the atmosphere.  Rising air usually leads to precipitation. If you add some mojo like this to the rising motion of the air, storms become more intense, precipitations also intensifies and you boost the chances of severe weather.

Negatively tilted troughs, as they're called aren't rare at all, but this storm really took advantage of the situation.  There was also plenty of wind in the atmosphere, and that wind changed direction with heights.  This allowed some supercell thunderstorms and possible tornadoes to organize in southern New England and near Long Island and New Jersey.

That's pretty rare for this part of the nation.

Saturday's storm zipped along into Canada as expected and we're between systems. The sun is actually out in parts of Vermont this morning.  I have a feeling the clouds will fill in a bit more this afternoon.

The next system coming in tonight is not nearly as dynamic as Saturday's, so we'll just have some light rain and light snow, depending on your elevation. Most of us who do get snow will see an inch or less. The mountain peaks could get a few inches out of this.

Another windy storm system is due Thursday.  I also highly doubt that one will have any tornado weather with it.  

Saturday Morning Henri Update: Southwestern New England, Long Island, Hudson Valley Major Target

Tropical Storm Henri was starting to look a little

more symmetrical off the coast of North Carolina this

morning, setting the stage for a brief period of

intensification into a hurricane today.

 As we awoke this steamy Saturday morning, Tropical Storm Henri was still struggling to get its act together off the southeastern United States coast.   

Even if it's slow to turn into a hurricane, Henri still means big trouble for parts of southern New England and New York.  

There will be impacts from Henri in Vermont - pretty much a flood risk - but there are still questions as to how bad and exactly where that flooding might be in the Green Mountain State.

By the way, there are some other hazards in Vermont to think about before Henri makes landfall. I"ll get to those after we get through our Henri walk through. 

Forecasts continue to show Henri as an odd duck. 

Tropical storms and hurricanes have throughout history hit New England in  August so that's not weird. The expected northwestward bend in the track before landfall, taking Henri toward Long Island and Connecticut is weird.

Henri's expected very forward slow motion through New England and the Hudson Valley is unprecedented from what I can tell.  That track is not set in stone, either.  Henri could go a little west of that predicted path, or somewhat more likely, a little east of that path. 

This weirdness could reduce the area battered by high winds, but worsen the inevitable flooding from the storm. 

Long Island and Connecticut, and probably Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket are in the most danger from storm surges and wind damage. I'm sure there will be massive power outages, tree damage and some structural damage there.  Henri is expected to come ashore Sunday afternoon as either a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph, or a strong tropical storm with wind speeds just under that.

Storm surge flooding along Long Island beaches will be pretty intense with this. People on Long Island, in Connecticut, Rhode Island and nearby areas should be finish gathering supplies, food and water today to prepare themselves for long power outages. Note these outages will happen amid oppressive humidity next week, so that in itself will be a danger. 

Tropical storms and hurricane winds almost always rapidly weaken after they come ashore, and Henri will be no exception in that regard. As Henri slowly makes its way north - current forecasts have it crawling to about Albany, New York early Monday morning - winds will die out.  

By the time Henri starts to affect southern Vermont, there might be some gusty winds, maybe a few power outages and trees down, but there probably won't be horrible wind damage in Vermont.  

Torrential rains tend to linger much longer with decaying tropical storms, and this will happen with Henri.   This is where Henri's slow forward motion gets dangerous. The heavy rain will linger over Connecticut, southern New York, western Massachusetts and quite possibly southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire for a long time.

That could cause catastrophic flooding.  At this point, that seems most likely in Long Island, Connecticut and New York's Hudson Valley and Catskills. 

Far southern Vermont is on the edge of this torrential rain prediction.  It's possible, with its western track, a bit of dry air can get pulled into the dying circulation of Henri from the east, slightly reducing rainfall. But don't count on that!  I'm still definitely worried about flash flooding in southern Vermont.

That's in part because the forecasting models haven't settled on the focus for the heaviest rain.  Some forecast the worst of it to be in the Catskills. Others target Connecticut, the Hudson Valley and Massachusetts. Others take the heaviest rain through Connecticut, central Massachusetts, New Hampshire and southern Vermont. 

Anybody in the southern two thirds of New England should monitor flood forecasts through tomorrow night. 

The worst of the rains there would come Sunday night and Monday morning.  

Forecasts tracks of Henri using various

forecasting models. The general idea of

what's going to happen are there, but

you can see some variation.  A slight

difference in Henri's track could have a big

impact on how dangerous the storm is

in any given location. 

The remains of Henri are still forecast to take a sharp right turn through central New England and on into the Gulf of Maine.  If this goes as expected, that's great for most of central and northern Vermont.  That means there wouldn't be enough rain to raise a flood threat.

The usual caveats apply:  There WILL be shifts in the expected track, strength and orientation of Henri.  That means forecasts for the heaviest rain, the strongest winds and the timing of the storm will shift, too.

That means keep a heads up with forecasts, especially those of you in southern Vermont who are at most risk of flooding with this. 

Before we get hit with Henri, we have those other hazards that I mentioned to consider. 

It's wicked humid out there, and with expected high temperatures into the upper 80s today, there's a heat advisory up for Vermont's Champlain Valley.  The heat index will be in the mid-90s, so take it super easy out there.

Another thing to look out for are hit and miss showers and thunderstorms.  They won't be severe, but a few could contain really torrential downpours.  Since we're in bizarro world in the weather department, these storms won't come from the west as usual, but from the east or southeast. 

So contrary to what we usually experience, if you see dark clouds to the west, you're probably OK, but if there's threatening skies to the east or southeast, take cover.