An Arrest Has Just Been Made In One Of Two Huge, Deadly January L.A. Wildfires

Jonathan Rindernecht, 29, was arrested in Florida
Tuesday, charged with setting the Palisades Fire
in California.. That was one of two deadly and 
extremely destructive wildfires in
Los Angeles County back in January. 

A Florida man was arrested Wednesday for starting the Palisades Fire, one of two horrific wildfires that tore through Los Angeles County, California in January. 

Beginning on January 7, the two fires combined killed more than 30 people and caused massive destruction in southern California. 

One of the two fires, the Palisades Fire, killed 12 people and damaged or destroyed 8,000 structures in and around Pacific Palisades, California. That's the one Jonathan Rindernecht, 29 of Florida is accused of sparking. 

Prosecutors said Rinderknecht actually allegedly started the fire in the hours before dawn on January 1, after spending New Year's Eve as an Uber driver in the area. 

We learned in mid-January that the fire initially started on January 1. It erupted on Temescal Ridge in the Santa Monica Mountains and firefighters rushed to the scene, called it the Lachman Fire, and managed to contain the fire to eight acres.

They thought it was out, but smoldering embers that were probably semi-buried re-activated on January 7 when Santa Ana winds gusting as high as 100 mph began blasting over the region. 

ABC7 in Los Angeles picks up the story for us:

"(Acting U.S. Attorney) Bill Essayli said two of his passengers told law enforcement that he appeared agitated and angry that night. After he dropped off a passenger in the Pacific Palisades, Essayli said Rindernecht parked his car and tried but failed to contact a former friend. 

Then, Rinderknecht exited his car, walked up a trail, took iPhone videos from a nearby hilltop and listen to a rap song, whose music video included objects being lit on fire.'"

Prosecutors go on:

"After the Lachman Fire ignited, Rindernecht called 911 to report the blaze, fled the scene in his car but turned around when he saw fire engines approach, Essayli said.

'While the Lachman fire burned, the defendant walked up the same trail as earlier that night to watch the fire and firefighters,' Essayli said, adding that Rinderknecht recorded video of the scene using his iPhone."

ABC 7 describes the investigation:

"During an interview Jan. 2, Rinderknecht told investigators where the fire began, information not yet public and that he would not have now if he hadn't witnessed it, the complaint said. He lied about his location, claiming he was near the bottom of the hiking trail." 

According to prosecutors, it looks like the suspect used a lighter to set paper or vegetation ablaze. Prosecutors said Rinderknecht's ChatGPT log shows he created an image depicting a burning forest and crowds fleeing it. 

Rinderknecht is originally from Pacific Palisades but was arrest near his home in Florida Tuesday. He was charged with destruction of property by means of fire. 

Reading between the lines, it looks like Rindernecht didn't intend to cause the death and destruction from the fire. After all, he was not charged with arson. However, prosecutors won't rule out more charges against him. If convicted, he could spend up to 20 years in prison. 

Frustratingly, but not surprisingly at this stage of the proceedings, we don't have a motive for the crime yet. 

The other big fire that day, the Eaton Fire, raced mostly through Alameda, California, killing at least 19 people and destroying at minimum 9,000 structures.  

The origin of the Eaton fire isn't clear, but might have started from arcing electrical lines. 

Climate change is widely believed to have made both January fires worse than they otherwise would have been. Dry conditions had continued well into what is normally the wet season, making the fires possible. 

 

 

The Vermont Drought Has Gotten Much Worse

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor says all of
Vermont is now in drought.  Parts of the 
the state have been moved from
moderate to severe drought 
Severe drought is the brighter
shade of orange in this map. 

The drought in Vermont has gone statewide and has deepened, according to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor. 

Every last corner of the state is now in drought, compared to a little more than half the state in last week's report. 

 Last week, northwest and southwest Vermont were just "abnormally dry" a sort of precursor to drought.  Now, everyone in Vermont is officially experiencing drought.   

Even worse, parts of Vermont went from "moderate" drought to "severe" drought. Those severe areas are across central and northeastern parts of the state.

Typically, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, severe droughts cause fill kills, wildlife moves to farms, trees become brittle and susceptible to insects, groundwater is declining and irrigation ponds go dry.   

The worsening drought situation comes despite some rainfall in northern Vermont.  That rainfall wasn't particularly heavy, and was followed by more dry weather with low humidity. 

The rest of northern New England has gotten worse, too.  Half of New Hampshire is now in severe drought for the first time in this long dry spell. The severe drought zone in the Granite State is across the northern half of the state.

In Maine, severe drought spread from the coastline to across almost the entire southern half of the state. 

This has truly been a flash drought, one that develops within weeks instead of months. It's incredible  that we went from super soggy in early June to deepening drought by early to mid August. And that drought is clearly getting worse.

Despite a somewhat encouraging forecast tonight through Saturday. 

As I noted in this morning's post, we at least have some rain coming over the next few days. That's especially good since today's weather is basically a hot, dry blowdryer, with arid air, gusty winds and strong sunshine at least until late afternoon. 

Updated forecasts indicate much of Vermont could receive more than an inch of rain by late Saturday night. That's a slight improvement over earlier forecasts. However, the least amount of rain still looks like it will be eastern Vermont, which needs the rain the most. 

Most of Vermont has had four inches less rain than it should have over the past 60 days, so even an inch of rain won't help that much. Especially since little rain is expected in Vermont for at least a week, probably more, after the rain we do get over the next couple of days. 

RAINFALL STATS SHOCKING

We have more details on Vermont rainfall during meteorological summer, which ran from June 1 through August 31.  As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington tells us, we went from super soaker summers in 2023 and 2024 to dry faucets this year.  

Montpelier just had its driest summer with just 5.45 inches of rain. Last year, Montpelier had its third wettest summer, with 17.02 inches of rain. The disastrous summer of 2023 in Montpelier was their wettest summer, with 22.72 inches. 

Montpelier's records go back to 1948 

St. Johnsbury really takes the cake for most extremes between years. Last summer, they had 29.67 inches of rain, by far the most precipitation in a single summer.

Just one year later, here in 2025, St. Johnsbury had its second driest summer with just 5.22 inches of rain. St. Johnsbury has a very long continuous period of record, too. They started keeping climate stats there in 1894. 

September isn't off to a good start. The long term pattern suggests potential continued dry weather through the season.  Time to really start hoping for some soaking nor'easters. 

BREAKING: Multiple Fatalities Reported In Catastrophic Texas Flood

Extreme flood damage in Kerrville, Texas today. 
Multiple fatalities feared from flash flood overnight
and today after 10+ inches of rain fell in just hours.

 An extreme, catastrophic flash flood killed an unknown number of people northwest of San Antonio, Texas. Early reports suggest the death toll could be high. 

Local media confirmed six deaths as of early this afternoon. 

But many more are missing, including an unknown number of  children who were at more than a dozen summer camps along the Guadalupe River in and near Kerrville, Texas.

Kerrville is about 60 miles northwest of San Antonio. .

Thankfully, many of the summer camps along the river reported all children at their respective locations were accounted for and had been moved to safe places. 

Around 10 inches of rain fell in a matter of hours overnight. The river rose 22 feet in over three hours. Downstream in Comfort, Texas, the river rose 26 feet in just 45 minutes. 

The Guadalope is usually not much more than a trickle over the summer. Its banks are lined with RV parks, summer camps and vacation cabins. Most of which were busy for the Fourth of July holiday.

The storm's timing could not have been worse, catching people unaware in the pre-dawn hours as they slept.  The river in many cases rose too fast to get out of the way in time. 

Video on social media and witness accounts described houses, cars and RVs racing along the rapids of the Guadalupe River. Video also showed rescuers on boats plucking people clinging to trees just above the fast flowing water. 

The flooding was still unfolding this afternoon as a powerful flood crest blasted downstream.  Hasty evacuations were ongoing. 

The Guadalupe River flood last night and today comes less than a month after another extreme rainstorm unleashed a flash flood in San Antonio that swept numerous cars away, killing 13 people. 

In that case, about four inches of rain fell in just one hour. 

These two Texas tragedies are part of an increasing trend toward extreme flash floods in the age of climate change. The warmer atmosphere can hold more water, and under the right conditions, can unload torrential rains much heavier than most storms in the past. 

We saw something like this last July 30 in Vermont, when a local storm across the Northeast Kingdom dumped more than eight inches of rain in a few hours, causing catastrophic floods in and near Lyndonville. 

The Texas Guadalupe River flood is a developing story. We'll have more in future posts. 

VIDEO

Scenes of destruction around Kerrville, Texas in a news video. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

BREAKING: Likely Brief Tornado North Of Plattsburgh, NY This Afternoon In Otherwise Benign Line Of Storms

WCAX-TV meteorologist Jess Langlois shared this
radar image of today's storm in Beekmantown, 
New York. The bright shades of green and red
centered around Beekmantown shows strong winds
blowing in opposite directions in close proximity.
That is a sign of a tornado. 

A line of showers and thunderstorms - as expected - moved out of New York state into the Champlain Valley of Vermont  mid and late afternoon today. 

None of the storms appeared to be all that strong, and there were no warnings of severe thunderstorms.

Except:

It appears one of the storms along the line briefly got strong and started spinning.  It also appears to have touched off a brief tornado around Beekmantown, New York, about six miles north of Plattsburgh.  

According to WPTZ-TV meteorologist Tyler Jankowski,  noticeable rotation popped up around 3:38 pm along Route 22 near O'Neil Road and Duquette Road in Beekmantown.  Radar showed what is known as a couplet, which is winds blowing in opposite directions of each other in close proximity to each other. 

Meteorologist Jess Langlois of WCAX-TV also showed radar images, clearly showing a "couplet" on radar at that time 

That's a sign of a possible tornado. Radar also briefly indicate debris in the air. WPTZ also showed a video taken by Suzanne Drollette of what appears to be a weak tornado spinning behind some trees in Beekmantown, 

Video from WPTZ showed large sections of a roof blown off of what appears to be a house. Several trees and branches were blown down. 

The circulation seen on radar quickly dissipated and the storm continued on across Lake Champlain into Franklin County, Vermont. Once past Beekmantown, the storm looked like nothing special on radar. No obvious need for any severe storm warnings or alerts. 

That storm from Beekmantown eventually passed directly over my house in St. Albans, Vermont at around 4:45 p.m.. All I had was a couple flashes of lightning, some rumbles of thunder, a relatively brief downpour and a top wind gust at maybe 25 mph.  I didn't see any unusual looking clouds. Just a garden variety thundershower. 

The line of showers and thunderstorms continued into central Vermont by 6 p.m. No severe weather was associated with it, and it doesn't look like there will be any.

National Weather Service meteorologists from South Burlington were in Beekmantown as of 5:30 p.m. today to determine whether the damage they find there was indeed caused by a tornado.   Those meteorologist plan to release the results of their survey later tonight or tomorrow morning, 

By the way, this is not one of those cases in which a lack of staffing because of NOAA cutbacks caused National Weather Service meteorologists to miss it as it developed. It spun up so fast, and dissipated just as fast. If you blinked, you missed it. 

Also, the atmosphere did not appear to be primed to produce a tornado.  At worst, it seemed we were at risk of an isolated case or two of gusty straight line winds. 

Even More Damaging Layoffs Coming To NOAA As Trump, Musk Care Nothing About Public Safety.

About 1,000 more layoffs announced by the Trump
administration will further worsen weather
forecasting and public safety in the U.S.
Not that Trump or Elon Musk care or anything. 

NOAA and the National Weather Service are already crippled by Trump and Elon Musk-forced layoffs, as I've already reported. 

On Wednesday, things appear to be getting worse. 

As the Associated Press reported Wednesday afternoon:

"The Trump administration is starting another round of job cuts - this one more than 1,000 - at the nation's weather, ocean and fisheries agency, four people familiar with the matter tell the Associated Press.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Tuesday began plans to lay off 10 percent of its current workforce, people inside and outside the agency said, with some of them requesting anonymity due to fear of retribution.

The numbers were presented to NOA employees and managers were asked to submit names of positions for layoffs to agency headquarters, which will then go to NOAA's parent agency, the Department of Commerce, on Wednesday, the people said."

We already had earlier rounds of Trump firings at NOAA, encouraged retirements at NOAA, and the elimination of virtually all new employees. Which, as the Associated Press reports, NOAA will have eliminated one of four jobs at the agency. 

Project 2025, a blueprint Trump minions developed in the months and years before he was elected, called for the elimination of NOAA and the National Weather Service. They said that privatizing the whole thing would be better.

Because throwing up paywalls in order to receive life-saving weather warnings, diminishing public safety and making weather forecasts less accurate seems to be in the national interest, in the backwards upside down thinking of Trump and his fanboys and girls. 

Per the Associated Press:

"'This is not government efficiency,' said former NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. 'It is the first steps toward eradication. There is no way to make these kinds of cuts without removing or strongly compromising mission capabilities.'"

"....NOAA spokeswoman Monica Allen said the agency's policy is not to discuss internal personnel matters, ut said NOAA will 'continue to provide weather information, forecasts, and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission."

Which I call bullshit on, since before the new cuts, weather monitoring such as balloon launches, hurricane forecasting and other services ares scaled back.  So forecasts, information and warnings are already degraded. 

Don't take my word for it. Per AP again:

"Weather forecasts will worsen and 'people are going to start seeing this very quickly,' warned former NOAA chief scientist Craig McLean".  

He also said research cuts will make it harder or impossible for the United States to keep improving weather forecasts and monitoring. 

"People are silently watching the United States decline as a technological leader.... America got to the moon, but our weather forecasts won't be the greatest."

 

BREAKING: Florida Now Under NEW Hurricane Threat

Projections released Saturday by the National Hurricane
Center bring a powerful hurricane to already battered
Florida midweek. This projected path is subject to change

 In a report I did yesterday, it appeared as if some sort of tropical system heading toward Florida might prove weak and disorganized.  

At least that was the hope. 

Now, however, many of the same parts of Florida severely whacked by Hurricane Helene are about to get it again. That "weak" storm is now expected to become a powerful hurricane. 

As of this morning, a tropical depression had formed in the western Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to strengthen slowly at first, then rapidly as it moves at an increasing forward speed toward the west coast of Florida. 

Per the National Hurricane Center:

"There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plans in place, follow any advice given by local officials and check back for updates in the forecast. "

The forecast path could change, but right now, the projected path takes what will probably be Hurricane Milton could end up somewhere near Tampa or Fort Myers around Wednesday. This is the precise area of Florida that suffered record high storm surges and probably more than $1 billion in damage from coastal flooding less that two weeks ago.

On top of that, current forecasts have top wind speeds at landfall somewhere near 110 mph. Given the record warm temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico feeding this storm, those winds could end up being stronger than forecast. 

People there are only just beginning to clean up that mess, and here we go again. It's so disheartening. I really feel for these people.

Also, sort of like Helene, heavy rain is likely to precede the arrival of Wannabe Milton on Monday and Tuesday in Florida. That would prime the pump for inland flooding once the hurricane hits. 

If there's any good news out of this, strong indications are wannabe Milton will move in an east to northeast direction across Florida and then out into the Atlantic Ocean off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. 

That means it will NOT curve up toward western North Carolina and surrounding areas, scene of the deadly and cataclysmic floods with Helene at the end of September.  No rain is forecast in western North Carolina for the next week at least. 

Further out in the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie pose no threats to land. However, once Kirk ceases being a hurricane in the cold North Atlantic waters, it will become a powerful "regular" storm that could cause wind damage and flooding in much of western Europe toward Wednesday and Thursday. 

As Sadly Expected, More Tornado Tragedies Saturday; 15 Dead So Far, More Tornadoes Now Spinning In Midwest

The Denton, Texas Fire Department released this
photo of tornado damage in their city. Major
damage and some deaths were reported from 
overnight tornadoes in Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas

UPDATE, 6:30 PM

Since this morning, the death toll from last night's tornado swarm rose to 15, making this easily the worst tornado outbreak in a very busy and tragic season.

Even worse, the developing tornado situation in the mid-Mississippi has gotten worse, as NOAA' Storm Prediction Center upgraded the storm risk this afternoon to moderate, the second highest level. 

Several strong to intense tornadoes are likely this evening in that region, says the Storm Prediction Center. 

Already, as of 6:30 p.m. several tornado warnings were in effect in Missouri.  Numerous severe thunderstorm warnings were also up for a zone from Arkansas to Ohio and western Pennsylvania.

A "particularly dangerous tornado watch is in effect for big chunks of Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee. A "particularly dangerous" watch means forecasters are confident there will be strong tornadoes, and perhaps many of them. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Tornadoes again swept the southern and central Plains yesterday afternoon and night, unleashing more damage, deaths and destruction in a remarkably busy and heartbreaking tornado season.  

At least 24 tornadoes were reported Saturday and more are expected today. 

CNN was reporting five deaths from tornadoes in Texas overnight. 

At first, it began to look like the worst of the expected Saturday outbreak wouldn't come to pass. Only a few fitful tornadoes were reported during the day in the southern Plains. Then, after dark, supercells really exploded, unleashing the barrage of tornadoes.

Tornadoes are much more dangerous after dark as you can't really see them coming, and people are not as likely to be paying attention to warnings. 

Likely the worst incident came Saturday night when a  tornado smashed through a travel center housing a gas station and a few restaurants off a busy highway in Valley View, Texas, television station WFAA reported.

About 80 people were in there at the time, some of whom stopped there for shelter when they heard tornado warnings in their cars. Most of the people inside were injured, authorities said, but none of the injuries are life-threatening.

However, elsewhere around Valley View, at least two people, and possibly more died when the twister roared through neighborhoods, WFAA reported. The dark of night and power outages hindered search and rescue, and officials said they feared what they would see when dawn broke. 

Valley View is along Interstate 35 about 60 miles north of Dallas. Heavy damage was also reported in nearby Celina, Texas, probably from the same tornado. 

An intense supercell spun off a series of destructive tornadoes overnight and early this morning over 220 miles or so from Claremore, Oklahoma to Briarcliff, Arkansas. 

Details were still sketchy this morning, but at least two deaths were reported near Claremore, which suffered heavy damage. Possible tornadoes hit an outdoor wedding in Capron, Oklahoma and a KOA campground near Claremore. Initial reports indicate injures are minor at the campground 

Widespread damage is also reported in Rogers, Arkansas. 

I'm sure more sad details will emerge as we go through the morning

TODAY

Tornado warnings were still flying as dawn broke in northeastern Arkansas and southeastern Missouri. 

A whole large area through the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys are under the gun for tornadoes, damaging straight line winds and large hail pretty much all day.

After tomorrow, the national tornado threat should wane, but not entirely go away, for at least a few days.  

For those here in Vermont wondering how that storm will affect us, we only need to deal with showers and non-severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night. 

BREAKING: Violent Tornado Kills At Least 23 In Mississippi

Storm chaser Max Olsen, @MesoMax919 on Twitter,
captured the massive Mississippi tornado illuminated'
by lightning last night. 

A powerful tornado or tornadoes swept through western and central Mississippi overnight, killing at least 23 people, and causing widespread destruction. 

Reports were still just coming in as of dawn today, but the towns of Silver City and Rolling Fork were devastated. 

The disaster in Mississippi adds a new tragedy to a tornado year that has already been busy and threatens to be more destructive than average as we head into peak severe storm season during the mid and late spring. 

This tornado was the most dangerous you can get due to its size, timing, forward speed  and location.  

It was clearly a powerful, wide tornado that had a forward speed of roughly 70 mph. That speed is often too fast to keep ahead of warnings. It happened at night, when people are either sleeping, or can't seen visual cues that something dangerous is headed their way. '

It also hit a part of the nation with lots of mobile homes and substandard housing which are particularly prone to a tornado's destructive power. 

The 23 deaths - and possibly more - add to the nine deaths from other tornadoes earlier this year.  And we haven't even gotten to the peak months for tornado deaths in April, May and June. 

In all of last year, only 23 people died in twisters, so at least as many people died in Mississippi last night as in all of 2022. That's tragic, to put it mildly. 

Some experts fear that unusually warm Gulf of Mexico waters will contribute extra heat and moisture to storm systems this spring. That is one ingredient needed for tornadoes.

I'll have updates as warranted on this later today.  

Tornadoes, Severe Storms Slam Southeast

Large tornado on the ground near Selma,
Alabama today. Photo via Twitter,
@wsfa12news

 Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms over-performed in the southeastern United States this afternoon, causing some pretty intense destruction in some communities, especially in Alabama. 

One especially strong, long lasting tornado roared across central Alabama in the late morning and early afternoon.

The historic city of Selma, Alabama was hit particularly hard, with widespread damage reported on the northern part of downtown and across much of the western part of town, AL.com reported. 

A storm chaser in Selma said the damage path was up to a mile wide.

Reports are just coming in, and the scene was still chaotic as of this mid-afternoon, so we don't have news of any deaths or injuries. 

Television station WSFA was reporting at least one person trapped in debris and another person possibly missing. Residents of Selma were told to stay home and avoid the damage area.

Video and photos on social media showed numerous houses in and around Selma without roofs, collapsed buildings, and what appears to be an out of control fire. Other video showed a large tornado moving through the area. 

The tornado was well-warned, as the National Weather Service office in Birmingham, Alabama warned residents to take cover in advance of the "confirmed, large and destructive tornado."

The supercell responsible for the main tornado moved into western Georgia before 4 p.m.,prompting additional tornado warnings, along with the threat of ferocious straight-line winds and large hail. 

Another radar-confirmed tornado was sweeping through parts of Atlanta, Georgia shortly before 4 p.m. today. 

Other possible tornadoes were reported in Mississippi and Kentucky.  Baseball sized hail struck parts of western Kentucky in the pre-dawn hours. 

Before 4 p.m. tornado watches were extended eastward to cover much of Georgia and northwestern Florida.  

Severe tornado damage in Selma, Alabama. Photo by 
Marissa Giles, via Twitter @Spann

The severe weather was more extensive than forecasts from a few days earlier suggested. But the right conditions came together to unleash the dangerous storms.

Tornado outbreaks do sometimes occur in the Gulf Coast states and Southeast during the middle of winter. They are close to a key ingredient for severe weather - very warm and very wet air from the Gulf of Mexico.

If a dynamic winter storm passes by to the north and west, it will pull that toasty, humid air into the Southeast. Then, as the parent storm's cold front approaches, changes in wind speed and direction can create supercells and tornadoes.  

The parent storm's cold front will exit the southeastern coast later tonight and tomorrow morning, and that will end the tornado threat in this region. 

 

BREAKING: Huge St. Louis Flood To Start Dangerous Flood Week In Mid-South

@sarahkendzior took this photo of her
St. Louis area street this morning. 

Incredible rains have hit in and around St. Louis this morning, creating massive flash floods in the whole metro region.  

The situation was ongoing and it was still raining torrentially as I write this at 8 a.m. eastern time Tuesday. But as of 7 a.m. St. Louis had received 8.0 inches of rain it's wettest day in history. The old record was 6.85 inches. 

At least an inch or two more rain seems likely as more storms were upstream.  The National Weather Service there has declared this an emergency and a "particularly dangerous situation," words only used in weather warnings when the event is extreme. 

Some areas near St. Louis have had ten inches of rain, and probably will have a foot of rain by the time the rain tapers off.  This is considered a 1,000 year event which means there's a one in one thousand chance of this happening at any given time. 

It does look like the rain will finally taper off in and around St. Louis by mid-morning. 

The flooding is mostly in a narrow, 50 mile or so wide band from central Missouri, through St. Louis and on into south central Illinois. It's a classic "training storm" in which one thunderstorm after another goes over the same area like boxcars on a railroad track. 

People were being rescued from homes and cars as I write this.  News video from St. Louis includes two television reporters who were rescued by firefighters from a car that became swamped in the flash flood. 

The Weather Channel reported some cars on highways were completely submerged, so we need to hope the people that had been in them were able to get out. 

This is the beginning of a dangerous flash flood week in parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians.  A weather front has stalled in an west to east line from around Missouri to Virginia.

The kind of training storms St. Louis is experiencing could easily happen today, tomorrow and Thursday in parts of this region. 

West Virginia is going to be a particularly scary trouble spot. It's been a really rainy summer there, so the soil is soggy. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected most of this week with up to 10 inches of rain in the forecast. The state has mostly steep mountainous terrain and lots of fast moving creeks.  West Virginia is notorious for flash floods, and this could be one of the state's worst episodes. 

Dozens Likely Dead In Tragic Overnight Christmas Season Tornado Swarm

Extreme tornado damage in Kentucky last night 

What is likely to be one of the worst, or the worst December tornado outbreak in U.S. history was ongoing early this morning. 

The death toll is certainly in the dozens from the late season storms, with some neighborhoods and towns completely decimated by large tornadoes  in Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and Kentucky.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said dozens have died in his state. "We believe our death toll from this event will exceed 50 Kentuckians and probably end up 70 to 100," told television station WLKY in Louisville. "This is likely to be the most severe tornado outbreak in our states history."

Though numerous tornadoes were reported, one powerful tornado appears to have started in Arkansas and traveled at least 250 miles through northeast Arkansas, the boot heel of Missouri and on into Tennessee and Kentucky. 

Radar showed debris in the air for at least 270 miles along the huge tornado's track.  If it is eventually confirmed a single tornado along this track stayed on the ground continuously, it will be the longest tracked tornado in U.S. history.  

Although that continuous track is not confirmed yet, it's already being dubbed the "Quad-State Tornado." That's a comparison to the Tri-State Tornado of 1925, which at least until now, had the longest continuous path - going 219 miles through Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. That 1925 tornado killed 695 people, making it the worst single tornado in U.S. history.

As horrible as last night and this morning is, we can at least doubt the death toll is that bad.   

Still, what happened last night is beyond tragic. 

This main tornado or tornadoes was especially powerful.  Radar images showed debris being lofted 37,000 feet into the air, which is incredible for any tornado. The tornado first touched down at around 7 p.m. local time southwest of Jonesville, Arkansas and, incredibly, was still on the ground four and half hours later southwest of Louisville. 

Damage on the ground from this thing is extreme as it roared from town to town in the central Mississippi Valley. In Monette, Arkansas, it swept through a nursing home, with at least one fatality there.

The tornado was perhaps at its maximum strength in Mayfield, Kentucky, where, among other things it hit a candle factory while 110 workers were inside. The remains of the factory were being searched early this morning, and there is likely numerous fatalities there. Drone video taken above the scene shows the factory being an unrecognizable as a building. Just a mound of debris

Storm chasers who reached Mayfield said huge swaths of the city of 10,000 people were flattened.

Video from Leachville, Arkansas showed, among other things, a flattened Dollar General store, and more heartbreakingly, a destroyed, overturned home with a child's toy truck beneath it. 

There are also reports of extreme damage in and around Bowling Green, Kentucky.

Other tornadoes struck near St. Louis, Missouri. Just northeast of St. Louis, in Edwardsville, Illinois, a tornado collapsed much of an Amazon warehouse. At least 100 people were working inside at the time. Rescuers at last report were looking for survivors and bodies.

Other tornadoes also swept the St. Louis area. Meteorologists at the National Weather Service office near St. Louis had to take shelter for a time as an apparent tornado passed by very close to them. 

Tornado warnings were still going off this morning in and around Tennessee.  Chances of further tornadoes are lower today than they were last night, but still possible in a band from northern Alabama through Tennessee and Kentucky today. 

This is a breaking story and there probably be updates as we go along today.  Unfortunately, I believe any additional news will not be good. 

Quick Update: Alabama Tornado Outbreak Really Bad; Couple Updates For Us In Vermont, Too

This house collapsed during a tornado southeast of 
Birmingham, Alabama today. It's one of many homes
wrecked by an ongoing severe tornado outbreak.
Occupants of this house heard tornado warnings,
took shelter in the basement and were rescued.

 It's turning out to be a terrible day in Alabama, with many reports of large, damaging tornadoes. Some of them are hitting highly populated areas. Early forecasts turned out to be correct.  

Television station ABC33/40 in Birmingham has already confirmed three deaths from tornadoes in the town of Ohatchee.

 One tornado swept through subdivisions just southeast of Birmingham earlier this afternoon. By late afternoon, another confirmed tornado was tearing through northeastern part of Birmingham proper. 

The earlier tornado near Birmingham literally hit home for ABC33/40 meteorologist James Spann.  

Spann is one of the nation's leading experts on tornadoes and is beloved in Alabama.  His relentless, plain spoken broadcasts during tornadoes have saved many lives.

Spann was on the air describing the warnings as usual when he stepped off camera, having another meteorologist take over. He was soon back with this scary explanation:

"The reason I had to step out, we had major damage at my house......My wife is OK, but the tornado came right through there and it's not good, it's bad. It's bad."

With that, Spann went back to keeping up with the tornado warnings and alerting viewers to all the danger areas.  

As I write this at 6 p.m. Thursday evening, tornadoes are on going in and around Alabama and that is expected to continue through the evening. 

Details on what damage they are causing are still not in. But radar images suggest very large, intense, long lasting tornadoes. 

I'll certainly have an update in tomorrow morning's post. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

As expected, we experienced record high temperatures today.  That storm that's affecting the South is still headed our way.

The forecast for the morning part of the storm is still the same: We should get a few hours of moderate or even briefly heavy rain.  

Not something you ever see in March until now. NOAA's 
Storm Predicting Center has a very, very low, but not
zero chance of a brief tornado in and near Vermont
Friday afternoon.

Then there's a break while we wait for the afternoon cold front with this storm.  Next, we have an interesting twist. 

 NOAA's Storm Prediction Center as of this evening has Vermont, eastern New York and extreme western New Hampshire under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. 

A marginal risk is the lowest level of five categories and means isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. We have marginal risks relatively frequently in the summer, but it's rare in March.

But wait! There's more! 

The Storm Prediction Center also says that there is a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado in Vermont. 

It's doubtful one will happen but you never know.  We do see those minimal risks for twisters once or twice a year in the late spring and summer. But I've never heard of this in March! 

The main threat from any thunderstorms that develop tomorrow will be isolated damaging wind gusts. Nothing widespread.

I'll have much more in tomorrow morning's post.