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| Satellite phot from Sunday shows Tropical Storm Idalia organizing in the southern Gulf of Mexico and Hurricane Franklin northeast of the Bahamas. |
As of early this morning, Idalia had top winds of 65 mph. It was starting to take its expected path north and will probably brush the western tip of Cuba tonight.
At first, Idalia should only slowly strengthen into a hurricane as upper level winds are still somewhat interfering with how it's organizing itself.
But starting tomorrow, it's turning into a potential worst-case scenario for several reasons. For one, the water in the Gulf of Mexico in the path of the storm is super warm and toasty to quite a depth. If the warm water layer was just near the surface, the storm might churn up cooler water from below to blunt its development.
But all that warm water means Idalia will have plenty of fuel to strengthen quite a lot, as long as upper level winds aren't too strong.
Unfortunately, those upper level winds look like they'll give Idalia a break, and possibly allow it to get a lot stronger a lot faster. Right now, expected top winds are forecast to go to 115 mph at landfall, which is expected on Wednesday. Forecasts like this are uncertain, as the warm water could maybe make the storm even stronger than that.
Yet another worry in a long list of problems with this storm is it will likely be strengthening right up until it hits land. So, wherever Idalia lands, people might be taken by surprise by the intensity of the winds and the storm surge. After all, they might hear the storm has winds of say, 110 mph offshore, and that's what they'll expect. Then something even worse hits.
Speaking of landfall, here's another issue: We don't know exactly where it's going to hit. It will be moving pretty much parallel to the Florida west coast. Any deviation from Idalia's predicted path could bring it onshore anywhere from Sarasota north to Panama City.
Right now, the current project is for Idalia to hit land in Florida's big bend, where the Florida coastline curves toward the panhandle.
On one hand, that would be kind of good since that area is lightly populated. But not that good. That's because Idalia's storm surge will be widespread, and so will its torrential rains. A wide area of northern Florida is under the gun because of that.
And, as I already noted, that project path could well be wrong. Especially if it goes further to the east and slams in to the Tampa Bay region.
Even if Idalia behaves like forecasters think it might and it goes by to the west of Tampa, that metro area would still be in trouble.
The way Tampa Bay is oriented, combined with the direction of the wind and water flow with Idalia, a storm surge would keep shoving water up into Tampa Bay, causing widespread flooding. Many thousands of people live in houses only a few feet above normal sea level.
I'm seeing some comparisons to Category 5 Hurricane Michael in 2018, which also strengthened rapidly until it slammed ashore around Mexico Beach, Florida. I don't think, or at least hope, Idalia won't be as intense as Michael, but you never know.
Oh, and here's another doozy that might make things worse, at least for some people. Evacuations are inevitable, and probably have already started. It turns out, more than two dozen Florida Citgo gas stations received shipment of gasoline that were contaminated by diesel fuel.
If a motorist unwittingly filled their tank with that bad gas, they'll end up stranded one the side of the road. Just as Idalia is bearing down.
Of course, there will be updates as Idalia gets closer to an eventual landfall Wednesday. Florida is in for another very rough ride.
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