Vermont Thursday/Friday Storm Risk: Boomers Or Bust?

The view of the back deck in St. Albans, Vermont
illustrates the uncertainty in the weather forecast. A
little sun on the trees, but dark clouds loom off
to the west. Lots of storms or bust?

Today and tomorrow are two days in which I don't envy meteorologists.

The weather set up suggests there could be locally severe storms and local flash floods, but there's a lot of moving parts in the atmosphere. 

We could end up seeing quite a few weather problems in Vermont between now and Friday night. Or we might sail through with a winning smile.

There's a big bust potential, so forecasts might end up being wrong. But the stakes are higher then, "Oops, it's cloudy instead of sunny and bright, my bad."

We do have that slight threat of severe storms and instances of flash flooding.  Vermonters' nerves are shot after all the floods, and the repeated flood warnings and storm alerts all through July.  We don't want to deal with any more. 

So let's try to untangle all this, with the best assessment of what might happen, with lots of help as always from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.  Because this weather set up has a lot of moving parts, results may vary. Not everything will turn out as we outline below:

TODAY

Today has barely started and we already have a fly in the ointment.  A band of rain was moving through northern New York, on its way to northern Vermont as of 8:30 a.m. 

It sort of seemed to be weakening, and might wash out. But if it holds together, it could dampen the chances of scattered showers and storms later this morning and this afternoon.

As it stands now, forecasters aren't exactly jumpy about what will happen before 6 p.m. today. If anything happens, it will most likely be in the form of just scattered showers and isolated storms, and we shouldn't worry too much about them. But then there's this evening and early tonight.

TONIGHT

A disturbance coming out of Ontario and Quebec looks as it if wants to stir up some thunderstorms in northern New York by evening. Some of these could quickly become strong to severe.   It looks like a good bet that at least a couple places in northwest New York and the Adirondacks could see some instances of damaging winds.

But how well will the storms hold together by the time they approach Vermont. And how heavy will any of the rain be?

The storms probably won't reach Vermont in earnest until after 10 p.m.  Still, it looks like there might be isolated instances of strong winds. Some of the storms might have torrential downpours too. There's a very low but not zero chance of local flash flooding in northern Vermont overnight. 

How much rain falls with these storms, if the storms come in at all tonight, will have an influence on what happens tomorrow. 

FRIDAY:

More showers and storms, some with heavy rain once again should come through Vermont tomorrow. (How many times have you heard that this summer)?

If Thursday night's storms end up producing lots of downpours, that would once again pre-soak the soils, making them more prone to flash floods. If Thursday night's storms end up being nothing burgers, then the risk will be lower. 

There's still a lot of questions about the placement of the heaviest storms and how much rain they'll deposit on Friday. It looks like central and southern Vermont have the best chances of instances of damaging winds and hail. 

The eastern half of Vermont along with New Hampshire and southern Maine,  looks like it has the best chances of a few instances of flash flooding on Friday. 

In either case, the damaging stuff won't be widespread like it was in mid-July, but that's cold comfort to anyone who gets caught in an isolated instance of wind or flood damage.  

Tonight through Friday, have a couple ways to receive weather warnings, in case you are one of the lucky devils who fall under threat of high winds, hail, or flash flooding.