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| NOAA has increased the flood risk Tuesday to "moderate' in the red area, meaning flash flooding will be a pretty good bet. Some of the flooding could be pretty extensive. |
It seems local flash floods at this point are even more likely than thought earlier today.
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has upgraded the threat of excessive rain and flash flooding from "slight" to "moderate" in their latest forecast this afternoon. This area encompasses central and northern Vermont, with a somewhat lesser chance far south.
A slight chance of flash flooding means there will probably be scattered instances of flash flooding, like what we saw last Thursday and Friday. Moderate risk means fairly numerous instances of flash flooding. The category is just one step below the high risk we saw during the peak of Vermont's flooding on July 10-11.
This still won't be nearly as bad as July 10-11, but it does mean we need to be particularly alert on Tuesday. At this point I almost guarantee some sort of flash flooding somewhere in Vermont. It still sort of remains to be seen how extensive it will become.
Yes, I fully realize this is something nobody wants to hear about or read. But there you go. We're kinda stuck.
TONIGHT
The flooding could actually start later tonight, though it won't the main show. More of an appetizer before the main course Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Those very severe thunderstorms that have been afflicting much of the East Coast today extended as far north as central New York Monday evening. They're moving east towards us. The storms will weaken to the point they won't be severe by the time they reach Vermont tonight. So no worries about damaging winds or large hail or anything like that.
But in the increasingly humid air mass that's over us now, those storms will be able to maintain their heavy downpours. Most of us will not have enough rain to cause flooding, but there might be a few isolated spots that do overnight.
On top of that, local downpours were just starting to develop on their own over Vermont as of 6:30 p.m. These are separate from the stuff in New York. This will just add to the rainfall this evening and overnight.
So be careful driving late tonight. You could encounter flooding or washouts in a couple spots.
TUESDAY
The rain that comes tonight will certainly pre-soak the already wet ground, setting the stage for the flash flood risk.
One difference between the big July 10-11 flood and the worries on Tuesday will be the relatively spotty nature of the flooding.
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| Flooding in Richmond, Vermont on July 11. There's a fairly substantial risk of renewed flash flooding once again tomorrow in the Green Mountain State. We've had way too many of these dangerous situations. |
The amount of rain that falls in Vermont and adjacent states will be incredibly variable. Very lucky towns could receive as little as a quarter to half inch of rain on Tuesday. That would be no big deal and those golden communities would be safe from flooding.
However, most places will receive more than that. And some areas could get inches and inches of rain in a short period of time. Which is obviously scary.
The air will be very, very humid Tuesday, which allows for the thunderstorms that are going to develop to drop a LOT of rain.
The upper atmosphere is still looking drier Tuesday morning, which would allow for some sunshine, at least for awhile Tuesday morning and early afternoon, That will destabilize the atmosphere more and allow eventual thunderstorms in the afternoon to be stronger than they otherwise would be.
Worse, the air flow will be coming from the south, and the storms will align themselves into those dreaded trains - the line of boxcars on railroad tracks going over the same spot over and over again, moving south to north over the narrow bands, most likely near the mountains.
So, we might see certain towns get hit be several downpours, one right after the other. Each downpour would dump an inch or two of rain each hour. The ground is so wet that a couple inches of rain in a few hours could touch off some flash flooding. Worst case scenario is six inches or more of rain in three, four or five hours in a couple spots, which would cause some pretty extreme, damaging, life threatening floods.
WHAT TO DO
If your basement frequently floods, this evening is a good time to move what you can out of there. If you live in a flood prone area, especially near brooks and streams, have a plan to leave at a moment's notice. Organize a go bag tonight with important documents, medications, cash, change of clothing, devices, etc. Also have a plan to get your pets and their needs in mind in case you have to flee.
You should alway take a flood flash warning seriously, but be especially vigilant Tuesday. Hilly and mountainous areas are most at risk, but flash flooding could happen anywhere. Including urban areas. We saw that in Middlebury and Rutland last week.
If you're driving along and see water on the road, turn around, even if it looks like you can make it through. You won't know if the road had washed away beneath the water. Also know there's a risk of mud slide and land slides, so stay away from steep, unstable slopes.
Certainly call 911 if you are in immediate danger. But do know that although emergency responders will act quickly, they won't be able to get to you in a flash.
For those of you who aren't really in flood prone areas, stay inside if you start getting thunderstorms. While the risk of severe storms is kinda low, there might be a few big ones. There could be a lot of lightning, and high water might surprise you even if are in a supposedly flood free zone.
This is all a pain in the ass, I admit. We've had too many flood alerts this summer, and it's starting to wear on all of us. No, it wore us down weeks ago.
Climate change is, to an extend contributing to this. (Yes, I know there are other major factors involved as well).
It seems trite to say get used to it. Nobody really can. But our neighbors are still there for us, even if everybody is a bit tired of the weather drama.
Despite the trouble, savor the nice days we see between the bouts of dangerous weather.
Who knows this might be the last in a series of flood dangers this summer. I wouldn't count on that, bu can hope, right?
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