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| Satellite photo from this morning showing what will become tropical storm and likely eventually Hurricane Idalia organizing off the coast of Cancun Mexico. |
WANNABE IDALIA
It's not set in stone yet, but a storm that's now now far from Cancun, Mexico definitely has Florida nervous.
That storm is soon to become Tropical Storm Idalia, that is if it isn't already a tropical storm by the time you read this.
Wannabe Idalia was just sort of meandering aimlessly early this morning, but is forecast to soon start heading north is expected to head north and probably hit western Florida or the state's panhandle sometimes around Wednesday.
How strong Wannabe Idalia will be by the time it gets to Florida is anybody's guess. Forecasts have generally been trending stronger over the past couple of days with this thing.
One thing going for this storm is the Gulf of Mexico waters are at near record warmth, and that warmth extends deep into the water. That's incredibly high octane fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes. It provides the potential for the storm to strengthen explosively, which would make it a powerful, catastrophic hurricane by the time it reaches Florida.
But that won't necessarily happen. To become a monster category 5 hurricane like Michael in 2018 that leveled parts of the Florida Panhandle, you need relatively light winds aloft to avoid disrupting the storm's circulation.
This, however is an El Nino year. It tends to make higher level winds stronger, which could interfere with Wannabe Idalia's strength. It all depends on how strong those upper winds are. It's a trade off. The hot Gulf waters want to blow up the storm into a monster, the upper level winds want the storm to chill out.
Forecasters aren't so sure which factor will be the more dominant of the two.
In the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, they note predictions for upper level winds over Wannabe Idalia are weaker than in previous forecasts. That would favor more strengthening. But again, that's highly uncertain.
So, we know Florida is at risk, but we don't know precisely where in Florida that hit will strike, and we don't yet know how hard the strike will be.
If you live in Florida, especially the panhandle and the west coast from Fort Myers north, I'd start making early hurricane preparations just in case. Although it will be hot and busy, today's a great day to make a Costco and Home Depot run for supplies, protections for your home, that sort of thing.
Even if Wannabe Idalia ends up missing you, or becomes a nothing burger, at least you have all that stuff for the inevitable next hurricane, whenever that will be.
It doesn't look like Wannabe Idalia will affect us here in Vermont. I'll get into that in a separate post this morning on Vermont weather, which is currently weird but safe.
HURRICANE FRANKLIN
Meanwhile this morning, Hurricane Franklin was east of the Bahamas, with top winds of 90 mph. It's really getting its act together, and is now expected to rapidly strengthen as it heads north to a point west of Bermuda by Wednesday. Top winds near its center by then could be an impressive 130 mph by then.
Franklin will probably cause some rough weather in Bermuda as it passes by, but so far, it looks like that island will miss out on the full effects of the storm.
Most forecasts had a dip in the jet stream moving off the coast in the Northeast U.S. shoving Franklin away from the United States and then zip out into the North Atlantic where it would die. The only effects it would have on, say, New England would be rough surf and dangerous rip current.
Some predictions now have that weather disturbance missing Franklin, but the U.S. will still not be in trouble. If that happens, Franklin will probably meander eastward in the middle of the Atlantic, and linger longer than first thought. But it would just be trouble for ships and all the fishies out there.
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