Florida Bracing For Hurricane Idalia, Evacuations Ongoing Ahead Of Destructive Storm Surge

Satellite photo of Hurricane Idalia this morning shows
it beginning to take on "that look" of a potentially
very powerful storm.

Thousands of people are fleeing western and northern Florida today, and for good reason. 

What was Tropical Storm Idalia has strengthened into a hurricane, with top winds of 80 mph as of 7 a.m. this morning. Now, the meteorological ingredients have come together that could further strengthen this thing into a monster. 

Thunderstorms have consolidated around the center of Idalia. There's a lot of lightning in those storms. Upper level winds above the hurricane have relaxed. The water beneath the storm is at near record warmth. The combination sets the stage for rapid intensification today from a middling hurricane to a powerful, dangerous one. 

Forecasters expect Idalia to become a major Category 3 storm with top winds of 120 mph by the time it hits land tomorrow. It could even get stronger than that.   That's unquestionably bad, of course, but the worst part of any big hurricane is the storm surge. 

The low air pressure of a hurricane lifts the water, and the intense winds shove the water onshore like a massive bulldozer, taking down anything in its path. Huge waves with the surge just make everything that much worse. 

The National Hurricane Center warnings concerning the storm surge are worrying to say the least: They warn of "widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period."

I found it a bit disconcerting that already there was minor coastal flooding in communities like St. Petersburg, Florida on Monday, well in advance of the storm. The storm center was a full 175 miles west of Key West this morning and there was quite a bit of coastal flooding going on there. 

Officials are urging people to high tail it out of danger zones now if not sooner, before escape routes are cut off by rising water. 

All this while the sun is still shining on the Hurricane Idalia danger zone.  But the sun won't shine for long. Outer rain bands and squalls from Idalia should start moving over the area by this afternoon and evening. 

The area under a storm surge warning is huge, running from south of Sarasota in southwestern Florida, all the way northward along the rest of the west coast of Florida and on into the state's panhandle to a little east of Panama City. Evacuation orders are in effect for 21 Florida counties. 

The center of the hurricane, and its worst destruction is still expected to hit land where the coast of Florida starts curving westward into the panhandle. But there's still questions about whether it will shift east or west, so Idalia could strike closer to Tampa or closer to Panama City. 

It's always important to note that even if Hurricane Idalia tracks exactly where forecasts now think it will go. The storm surge will hit a broad area of coastal Florida. As I mentioned yesterday, the geography of the coast line and the path of Idalia will ensure that a storm surge is shoved into Tampa Bay, and the water will have nowhere to go with all that pressure from the southerly gales as Idalia blows past.

In the hardest hit zones, the storm surge could go up to 12 feet. Tampa Bay is expecting a four to seven foot storm surge. 

Torrential rains will also add to the mix, causing inland flooding. Water trying to drain from the land into Tampa Bay will have nowhere to go because of the storm surge blocking the way. 

President Biden has already approved an emergency declaration for Florida. Everyone is battening down. Tampa International Airport closed at midnight last night, and won't reopen until after the storm and damage is assessed. 

The hurricane warning affects 13 million people. Forty-six of Florida's 67 counties are in a state of emergency.  Schools are unsurprisingly closed throughout the western  half of Florida.  You can tell people there are expecting a biggie.   

Meanwhile, Hurricane Franklin swirls off the southeast
U.S coast, and west of Bermuda.

After striking Florida, Idalia will cruise through Georgia and South Carolina as a tropical storm, then head out to sea off the southeastern North Carolina coast by Thursday. From there, its future is uncertain.

HURRICANE FRANKLIN

We have to mention Hurricane Franklin, which as of this morning was very roughly half way between Bermuda and the southeastern coast of the United States.

 It's a monster that I think peaked yesterday, thankfully without hitting land.  Its top winds reached to nearly 150 mph and in satellite imagery took on the look of a classic powerful hurricane.

Its center will miss land and Franklin will eventually die in the cold waters of the North Atlantic. But being such  powerful storm, it's causing and will cause dangerous rip currents from Miami, Florida all the way north along the U.S. and Canadian east coasts to Newfoundland. 

Hurricane Worries In Florida, Meanwhile Franklin Shows Its Muscle

Satellite photo from this morning showing what
will become tropical storm and likely eventually
Hurricane Idalia organizing off the coast
of Cancun Mexico. 

Florida is beginning to brace for a potential new hurricane disaster. Meanwhile, another hurricane is flirting with Bermuda, but will otherwise sort of behave itself. Let's get into it:  

WANNABE IDALIA

It's not set in stone yet, but a storm that's now now far from Cancun, Mexico definitely has Florida nervous. 

That storm is soon to become Tropical Storm Idalia, that is if it isn't already a tropical storm by the time you read this.

Wannabe Idalia was just sort of meandering aimlessly early this morning, but is forecast to soon start heading north is expected to head north and probably hit western Florida or the state's panhandle sometimes around Wednesday.  

How strong Wannabe Idalia will be by the time it gets to Florida is anybody's guess.  Forecasts have generally been trending stronger over the past couple of days with this thing. 

One thing going for this storm is the Gulf of Mexico waters are at near record warmth, and that warmth extends deep into the water.  That's incredibly high octane fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes.  It provides the potential for the storm to strengthen explosively, which would make it a powerful, catastrophic hurricane by the time it reaches Florida.

But that won't necessarily happen. To become a monster category 5 hurricane like Michael in 2018 that leveled parts of the Florida Panhandle, you need relatively light winds aloft to avoid disrupting the storm's circulation. 

This, however is an El Nino year. It tends to make higher level winds stronger, which could interfere with Wannabe Idalia's strength. It all depends on how strong those upper winds are.  It's a trade off. The hot Gulf waters want to blow up the storm into a monster, the upper level winds want the storm to chill out. 

Forecasters aren't so sure which factor will be the more dominant of the two. 

In the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, they note predictions for upper level winds over Wannabe Idalia are weaker than in previous forecasts. That would favor more strengthening. But again, that's highly uncertain.

So, we know Florida is at risk, but we don't know precisely where in Florida that hit will strike, and we don't yet know how hard the strike will be. 

If you live in Florida, especially the panhandle and the west coast from Fort Myers north, I'd start making early hurricane preparations just in case. Although it will be hot and busy, today's a great day to make a Costco and Home Depot run for supplies, protections for your home, that sort of thing. 

Even if Wannabe Idalia ends up missing you, or becomes a nothing burger, at least you have all that stuff for the inevitable next hurricane, whenever that will be.

It doesn't look like Wannabe Idalia will affect us here in Vermont. I'll get into that in a separate post this morning on Vermont weather, which is currently weird but safe.

HURRICANE FRANKLIN

Meanwhile this morning, Hurricane Franklin was east of the Bahamas, with top winds of 90 mph. It's really getting its act together, and is now expected to rapidly strengthen as it heads north to a point west of Bermuda by Wednesday. Top winds near its center by then could be an impressive 130 mph by then. 

Franklin will probably cause some rough weather in Bermuda as it passes by, but so far, it looks like that island will miss out on the full effects of the storm. 

Most forecasts had a dip in the jet stream moving off the coast in the Northeast U.S. shoving Franklin away from the United States and then zip out into the North Atlantic where it would die. The only effects it would have on, say, New England would be rough surf and dangerous rip current. 

Some predictions now have that weather disturbance missing Franklin, but the U.S. will still not be in trouble. If that happens, Franklin will probably meander eastward in the middle of the Atlantic, and linger longer than first thought. But it would just be trouble for ships and all the fishies out there. 

For Once, A Vermont Rainfall Without A Flood (We Believe). Also Tropical Trouble To Avoid Us, Too

 It's going to rain again in Vermont, and some of it might come down pretty heavily for brief periods. 

This projected path of soon to be Hurricane Franklin
looks like it might threaten us here in New England.
But looks are deceiving. All indications are it will
curve well to our east and not bother us at all. 

For once, though, it doesn't look like we will deal with any flooding. As long as I'm not jinxing it here.

This is going to feel a bit like an autumn storm than a summer one.  It'll cloud up pretty quickly later today and it will get breezy, especially in the Champlain Valley. 

Overnight, especially after midnight, it will rain pretty consistently. There might be a rumble of thunder in a few spots, but it won't be anything to get too worked up about. 

Rain will continue into Friday morning, as it looks now, but it will become spottier as the day goes on. 

The fall-like unsettled weather continues all day Friday and through Saturday.  It won't rain all the time, but it will be cloudy and cool, sometimes showery, occasionally drizzly.  You'll really feel like autumn is coming. 

That's not to say we won't have any warm summer weather before autumn really gets here. It's just that we're more prone to cooler temperatures now that we're heading out of August and toward September.

TROPICAL TROUBLE AVOIDING US

Another big of good news with this weather pattern is that the rather weak storminess over us for the next few days should keep any tropical trouble at bay.  Tropical Storm Franklin, having flooded the Dominican Republic this week is heading north into the west-central Atlantic.  

Franklin is expected to strengthen into a hurricane, actually maybe a pretty big one. Of course, we in Vermont would be wary of a northbound hurricane after the wet summer we had. In this case, though, a southward dip in the jet stream that will linger over New England into next week will push Franklin more northeastward. So it will pass safely well east of New England during the middle of next week, and won't affect us at all.

It's possible Franklin could cause trouble in eastern Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, so Environment Canada will be watching that. 

This is so much better than the weather pattern we had in July, which brought us so much flooding. The dip in the jet stream back then was centered over the Great Lakes. That would have steered a storm like Franklin toward us. Not happening this time! 

We're heading into the peak of hurricane season, so expect news of more tropical storms and hurricanes popping up over the next few weeks. There's no telling where they might go. But so far, we in northern New England look blessedly safe from these things.