Vermont Getting Lucky With Storms, Rest Of New England, Not So Much

Severe flooding in Leominster, Mass.
Monday. Photo by Judy Jollimore.

If you live in Vermont, you might have been justified to complain a little about the gloomy, overcast conditions that lingered all day, or at least most of the day. 

You'll be pleased to know, though, we dodged another weather bullet. And more bullets flying in our general direction look destined to miss, too.

We've been dealing with a nearly stalled weather front over New England since last Thursday, which has caused round after round of storms in various parts of the region. 

The front settled just to the south and east of Vermont Monday, leaving us in the cool-ish damp murk.

MASSACHUSETTS DISASTER

The southeastern half of New England was still on the warm,  humid side of the stalled front, and that's been causing flash flooding from torrential downpours since Saturday.

Yesterday, all hell broke loose in central Massachusetts, and to a slightly lesser extent in Rhode Island and Connecticut.

In Massachusetts, training thunderstorms, one after another going over the same spot, unleashed incredible downpours and flash floods, especially around Leominster, Fitchburg and surrounding communities. 

Leominster had 9.5 inches of rain in just a few hours. (The entire month of September there normally yields less than half that amount of rain).  Fitchburg, Massachusetts got a whopping 2.77 inches of rain in just one hour and a storm total of five inches. 

Numerous houses and businesses were flooded, at least one building collapsed in Leominster, and you basically couldn't get around town since all the roads were under water. This flood was on par with the inundation we got here in Vermont back in July, except yesterday's Massachusetts mess covered a smaller area. 

WEDNESDAY STORM

The next storm we have been talking about for days is still on track to hit New England tomorrow. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center continues to have most of the region, including Vermont, in a slight risk area for flash floods. 

I think the real danger zone might be southern New England again, which is most likely to get some torrential thunderstorms with this. 

A strong cold front will accompany this system. Here in Vermont, this thing should generally be well behaved, dumping less than an inch of rain on us through the day.  The isolated flash flood risk comes if any thunderstorms can get going just ahead of the cold front. The heavier downpours with those thunderstorms could cause a  high water problem here or there. It doesn't look like anything widespread will happen here. 

The cold front will give us a belated new introduction to autumn. In Burlington, Vermont it has been continuously above 60 degrees since the morning of September 2, which is a very strangely long time to stay that warm. 

This will end tomorrow night as both delightfully dry air with normal temperatures for mid-September finally arrive.

HURRICANE LEE

Though things could still change, it continues to look like Hurricane Lee won't be that big a deal here in Vermont. If the forecast track holds, it could end up being pretty breezy Saturday and/or Sunday, but beyond that, not much. Again, if the forecast track verifies, Vermont probably will get no rain, or at least very little rain from this hurricane.

For a few days now, the computer models, generally speaking have been making Hurricane Lee make landfall somewhere near western Nova Scotia. That the forecasts have been consistent on this gives me a little more confidence that this path will become reality. 

Again, though, hurricanes can always surprise. If the track of the storm goes much further west than expected, though, all bets are off. 

However, it looks like southern and especially eastern New England will take the brunt of this. As Hurricane Lee moves north, its top winds will weaken, but the area raked by strong winds will expand. That means coastal New England, especially Rhode Island on north to Maine, can expect high tides, large wages, beach erosion, and especially in eastern Maine, heavy rain.

The timing is still a bit of a question  mark, as some models bring Lee to near New England early Saturday, while some hold off until early Sunday. 

We still have to keep an eye on this, but if you have weekend plans for Provincetown, Nantucket or Bar Harbor,  you might want to reconsider.