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| NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has hoisted a slight risk zone for severe storms in parts of the Northeast, including much of Vermont today. |
Burlington made it to 92 degrees, exceeding the old record of 90 set eight years ago. St. Johnsbury got up to 90, besting the old record by one degree. Montpelier also set a record at 86 degrees.
Today will be another hot, humid one, but with a big twist. Many of us will see showers and thunderstorms. The heat dome that capped the atmosphere all week and prevented any cooling storms is breaking down.
Before the storms arrive, we have a shot at making it to 90 degrees today in the warmer valleys. It's possible a record high will be set in Montpelier today, as the current mark is 88 degrees. I have extreme doubts about Burlington setting a new record today, since the current record high is 94 degrees, set during that strong 2015 hot spell.
THE STORMS
An approaching front opens the door for showers and storms to blossom this afternoon. The air is increasingly unstable. As you can tell, there's plenty of humidity for any storms to work with.
That means a few storms could be severe, with damaging winds. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has most of Vermont in a slight risk zone for severe storms. That means we can expect scattered reports of strong winds today.
As usual in this type of situation, it's hit and miss. Some places will get absolutely nailed by strong to at least marginally severe storms. Other areas will barely be touched. You can't tell who gets what until right before the event. The best chance of storms today is roughly between 2 and 10 p.m, but a few could pop up a little earlier than that, and a few could linger later.
It's the usual drill. Have a way to get weather warnings. Head inside if it looks threatening. Especially if you go under a severe thunderstorm warning.
With the torrential downpours likely with the strongest storms, the dreaded return of a flash flood risk returns. NOAA has us under a marginal risk for excessive rains today. That's an indication that if any areas of flash flooding develop today, they should be pretty isolated and not at all widespread.
This will NOT be a nightmare scenario like mid-July was. It helps that it hasn't rained lately, so the soil isn't sopping wet anymore. It will be able to absorb some of the rain from the downpours.
STALLING WEATHER, MORE RAIN
A weather traffic jam is forming in the Atlantic Ocean that will make Vermont's weather to remain on the icky side for a few days. Just how wet and icky is an open question.
A huge dome of warm high pressure is repositioning itself well off the coast of New England and southeastern Canada.
Cold fronts coming in from the west over the next few days will smack into this high pressure dome and stall in or near New England.
That prolongs the showers until everything can clear out, and we're not exactly sure when that will be.
Where the fronts stall also will determine who gets a lot of rain for the next few days, who gets just a bit, who gets a break from the humidity and who gets stuck with the muggy air for a few more days.
I almost guarantee there will be at least some showers around Vermont daily from Friday at least into Monday. You really have to wait until the day before, or even the day of, to get a good idea how much rain you're going to get and what your chances are of getting wet.
Interestingly, the Storm Prediction Center has very low, but not zero chances of severe storms in parts of Vermont Friday and Saturday.
That would make three days in a row with some severe weather risk. That's unusual for September, as severe weather season is definitely waning in New England.
So far, the risk of flooding from this stalled mess appears low, but it can't be ruled out. If the fronts stall over eastern New England, the rain here in Vermont will be lighter, and it will be noticeably less humid over the weekend.
If the stalls happen closer to the Green Mountain State, we're at some risk for heavier rain and continued high humidity. Especially east of the Green Mountains.
Adding to the stalling mess in the Atlantic will be soon to be very powerful Hurricane Lee. It will be moving slower northwestward from its current position way out in the central Atlantic. It'll take until Tuesday for it to get to a position still a good ways east of the Bahamas.
Some long range forecasts continue to hint that Hurricane Lee might turn out to sea and miss the United States. That would be good, but don't hang your hat on that yet. There are still factors that could end up bringing Lee to near or even on the coast, somewhere.
It's still so far away, really anything could happen. I wouldn't worry about Lee now, but start paying attention next week for updates.
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