Small Storm In Middle Of Nowhere To Become Very Powerful Hurricane. Then What?

Brand new Tropical Storm Lee, halfway between Africa and
the Lesser Antilles this afternoon, already has "that look"
on satellite photos, suggesting it will turn into a very
powerful hurricane, as forecasters anticipate.

 A tropical depression - often a precursor to a tropical storm or hurricane, formed today in the middle of nowhere, Atlantic Ocean. 

By late this afternoon, it had already strengthened into Tropical Storm Lee. 

At last check, it was about halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, a north/south chain of islands that marks the extreme northeastern corner of the Caribbean Sea.

This storm, a nothing burger as of early Tuesday afternoon, wouldn't even be worth mentioning except that forecasters are way more confident than usual in this type of situation that this will become a very powerful hurricane. 

Conditions are nearly perfect for what will eventually be Hurricane Lee to strengthen into a monster. The water it's going over is at record warm levels. 

Super warm water is jet fuel for hurricanes. Upper level winds over the storm are expected to be quite light, especially starting mid to late week. That's another necessary ingredient for a monster storm.

By Sunday, the National Hurricane Center expects top winds with Lee to be 145 mph.  It could be even stronger. Some of the computer models suggest it will be stronger than that. 

With such a strong hurricane out there, it's natural to start worrying about any land it might hit. This is a Cape Verde hurricane, so named because that's the area where it originated.

Cape Verde hurricanes are notorious for being extreme disasters. Huge hurricanes ranging from the Great New England hurricane of 1938 to Hurricane Dorian in 2019 were Cape Verde types.

Nobody knows for sure where this storm will end up, but early signs are actually kind of encouraging.  The current hope is that it will go north of the Lesser Antilles and north of Puerto Rico, which would minimize damage.

Then what?  At that point, a week from now,  Lee will still be heading toward the United States, which of course would be really bad.

Again, no guarantees, but early signs are again hopeful.  If it strengthens quickly, chances are it will make a north turn earlier, missing the East Coast. If stays weak until it gets closer to the Caribbean, then it will probably track further west, becoming a bigger threat to the East Coast.

Current forecasts have Lee getting really strong early in its life, which could help. 

Also, the heat ridge that's now baking Vermont and the rest of the eastern United States and southeastern Canada will be replaced by a much cooler dip in the jet stream within a week.

This dip, called a trough, if it sets up over the eastern United States, will tend to deflect Lee, making it move north, then northeast well off the coast. 

Again, though, Lee bears watching. If the trough in the eastern United States turns out weaker than expected, or further west than forecast, that could open the door for the hurricane to turn north the East Coast of the United States or into southeastern Canada. 

I did see one computer run that had this smashing into New England as a powerful hurricane. However, for complicated reasons, that scenario didn't make meteorological sense. This afternoon's run of the American computer model today had it hitting Cape Cod and eastern Maine around September 16.  I also find that prognostication unconvincing. 

Computer model forecasts beyond five days are often notoriously inaccurate. 

However, unpleasant surprises have happened. Forecasts had called for Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Hurricane Florence in 2018 to curve northward and miss the United States. Florence ended up striking North Carolina and Irma hit Florida. Both were Cape Verde hurricanes, and both caused billions of dollars in damage.

In any event, it's way, way too early to think about how close Lee comes to the East Coast. We'll know much more in about four to seven days from now.  Until then, try not to wilt in the tropical heat that has engulfed Vermont this week.