Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Today's Storm Sputters A Bit For Vermont, Hurricane Lee Still Churning

Hurricane Lee northeast of the Bahamas this morning
is expected to move north and make landfall in 
Nova Scotia or possibly the eastern tip
of Maine on Saturday.
 About five days ago, the weather forecasting computer models were flashing a bit of a danger signal for Vermont today. Those prognostications suggested we might see some torrential rains and flooding. 

The reality - at least for Vermont -  is pffft.  Yes, it's definitely raining out there, and that should continue for most of the day. But it will never come down hard enough to cause any real flooding. Just another soggy day in a long string of them this year. 

Unfortunately, though, there has to be a victim with this storm and that's southern New England. The deep moisture that was originally supposed to affect Vermont is mostly stuck down in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. 

They've had rounds of flash flooding over the past few days, and more is happening today. Already, before 9 a.m. today, flash flood and severe thunderstorm warnings were flashing in Connecticut, and that looks like it will spread into Massachusetts soon. 

Radar images at 8:45 a.m. suggested those storms might eventually up in central Massachusetts, which suffered some extreme flash flooding Monday. So the news isn't good. 

Back here in Vermont, there might be some rumbles of thunder and some briefly heavy downpours, but that's about it. After ten days of either extremely or kinda humid air, we're finally going to see a taste of crisp, dry air that September should be famous for. 

This cooler air mass won't exactly scream "autumn" but it will be the coolest air we've seen in awhile (Highs in the 60s to around 70, lows in the 40s to around 50 Thursday and Friday. Pretty standard for September. 

Then we watch Hurricane Lee go by

HURRICANE LEE

Forecasts for the future path of Hurricane Lee have ticked a bit westward since yesterday, but it still doesn't look like it will screw up Vermont all that much. 

Lee will pass by Cape Cod and the Islands Late Friday night or very early Saturday morning. Coastal southern New England  can expect some storm surges, battering waves, beach erosion, gusty winds and maybe spells of heavy rain.  It won't be a good time on Cape Cod at all.

From there, Hurricane Lee looks like it might head north, making landfall in extreme eastern Maine or far western Nova Scotia during the day Saturday. 

Though Lee won't be as powerful as it once was, it could still have top winds of 80 mph at landfall, along with storm surges and torrential rain.

Tides are normally awfully extreme in the Bay of Fundy, so it will be interesting to see what Hurricane Lee does there. 

For us in Vermont, Hurricane Lee will provide a rather cloudy, windy Saturday.  Winds shouldn't be strong enough to be damaging, but it will be a change of pace for us. Other than in strong thunderstorm gusts, we've had a remarkable lack of wind for the past three months or so. 

North winds Saturday could gust as high as 30 mph and even a little higher than that in the Connecticut Valley. Winds on ridge lines could gust to 45 mph, the National Weather Service says. 

Winds of this magnitude shouldn't cause any real trouble, but hang on to your hat. 

Light showers from Lee might make it into eastern areas, especially the Northeast Kingdom.

Do note if the westward trend in Lee's expected path continues, it could make Saturdays in Vermont  just a bit windier and a bit wetter than currently expected. 

We're still looking safe from any new weather disasters with Lee, though, so that's great. 


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