Monday, September 4, 2023

Vermont Heat Update: It Intensifies Today And Tomorrow, Peaks Wednesday

The hibiscus on our back deck is certainly welcoming the
hot, humid weather with lots of new blooms, even if
I can't quite muster as much enthusiasm for the hot spell.
 The temperature got up to 84 degrees on Sunday in Burlington, Vermont, which actually isn't all that remarkable for early September. 

What is remarkable is that it was the hottest temperature since July 28.   As mentioned in a previous post, we had the coolest high August maximum high temperature since 1927.

We're more than making up for it this week.  It should get into the low 90s on many valley floors sometime this week. There's even a shot at an "official" heat wave in Burlington, which is three consecutive days of 90 plus temperatures. 

That's a pretty arbitrary definition of a heat wave, but it is what it is. 

Anyway, it's going to be an uncomfortable week. 

A heat advisory is in effect today in the Champlain Valley. That the heat index, which takes into consideration actual temperatures combined with humidity, could make it feel as hot as 95 degrees. 

Today won't even be the hottest of this toasty stretch. I doubt many places will make it to 90 today. There's a better chance of it getting past 90 degrees tomorrow and the day after. I'm pretty sure the National Weather Service will also issue heat advisories Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly Thursday as well. 

With the humidity in place, nights won't cool off very much either. Dawn this morning wasn't too terrible, as it had gotten into the low 60s.  The next few nights will only go down to 70 or so in the warmer valleys, so we won't be able to recover from the day's heat so well going forward.

A heat wave gets dangerous cumulatively. The longer it stays hot, the more a person's body is stressed. People who are vulnerable to heat, especially those who already have underlying health issues, need to be careful.

If you know an elderly or person with health issues, check up on them this week.  If their house is hot, consider taking them out on an air conditioned trip if they're up for it. Meanwhile, everyone should stay hydrated.

If you need to do strenuous work, try to do it early in the morning when it's a bit cooler.

As mentioned yesterday, we'll have to watch the schools, too, since most aren't geared up for heat waves.  Traditionally, we didn't often have heat waves during the school season, but that seems to be changing. 

The heat dome over us should begin to break down Thursday, but it will be a slow process. Thursday will continue to be humid and very warm.  Whether it gets to 90 degrees or not then depends on the timing of any clouds and showers that work their way in. 

Longer range forecasts call for a sluggish weather pattern, with things not moving west to east as quickly as they should. 

With all the humidity lingering, that could set us up for - UGH! more heavy rain toward the end of the week. 

The good news is the flood risk is diminished some because for the first time since early June, we will have had a week or so of dry weather. So the soils will be able to absorb a little more rain water than they did in July and August.

Still, we'll have to watch later in the week in case enough rain does fall to cause local flood issues. We have a lot of time to monitor that. 

At least we won't have any tropical storms or hurricanes in the mix to make any late week rain worse. The Atlantic Ocean remains abuzz with tropical storms and wannabe hurricanes, but I don't see any real threat to the United States coasts for at least a week.  

Meanwhile, very long range forecasts have shifted.

Those predictions reaching into mid month had been indicating continued warmer than normal temperatures past September 15. Now, those forecasts hint at cooler than normal weather toward the middle of the month.

That's no guarantee, since forecasts that far out aren't necessarily accurate. But if it pans out, it will be a shock to the system again. Cooler than normal weather in mid-September is much different that slightly chillier than normal air in mid-summer.

If it gets cool in mid-September, you'll know for sure it's autumn. For now though, enjoy or endure a very, very belated summer heat wave


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