More Storms in Vermont,, Southern Focus, Humidity Statewide

An initial round of storms plows into far northwestern
Vermont Thursday afternoon in this photo, shortly
before a much larger storm complex hit most
of the Champlain Valley, causing scattered instances 
of damage in northern Vermont.

UPDATE: 3:45 PM  FRIDAY

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the two southermost counties in Vermont.

As expected, that is the bigger risk zone. Severe storms in southern New York and New England look like they might clip these two counties in the next few hours. 

Heads up in Bennington and Windham counties for threatening weather. Strong straight line winds, dangerous lightning and torrential downpours are the biggest risks from these storms. 

As usual, not everybody will be hit hard in those two counties, but a few places might.

For the rest of Vermont into this evening, there are some hit and miss showers and storms scattered about.  

So far those storms are garden variety, and not too rambunctious. They could get a little stronger late this afternoon and this evening, but I don't anticipate major problems. Just, at worst, some local downpours and very localized gusty winds. Nothing on the level of what hit northern Vermont yesterday.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

After yesterday's storms in Vermont, which causes scattered areas of damage through the northern part o the state and gave most of us quite a lightning show, you'd think we'd get a break today. 

But nope, more severe storms are possible, this time mostly in southern Vermont. 

Today, the temperature might be down a bit, but the humidity sure isn't. That will help fuel those storms today. They could happen anywhere in the state, but the heaviest and most numerous ones should be across the southeastern half of Vermont. 

Like yesterday, we'll see locally strong gusty winds, some gullywashers and perhaps some hail, though the risk of large hail is fairly low.  There could be some localized flash flooding, especially in urban areas like in the Burlington area yesterday. But it won't be anything widespread.

It's beginning to look like northern Vermont will get something of a break from the humidity Saturday, while southern areas will stay muggy. The risk of showers remains, but in  northern Vermont, I'm thinking it will be dry most of the day. In fact some areas up north won't get any rain at all.

That weather traffic jam I talked about yesterday is still totally in play, so the cold front that will come in by tomorrow will stall just to our south and east. 

A wave of low pressure will form on it, and move north. It looks like that will give us a good slug of rain Sunday and Monday. The first part of Sunday might be dry, especially north, but we'll have a rising chance of rain as the day goes on.  It could come down pretty hard, but it doesn't look like it will be enough to renew any flooding chances.

I keep harping on flooding, by the way, because we're all spooked by what happened in the Green Mountain State this summer. 

We'll get sort of a break towards Tuesday. But the weather pattern, with the stalled front not far to our east, should continue. More energy coming in from the Midwest looks like it might hook up with that stalled front by the middle or end of next week.

There's some potential for heavy rain with that, so we'll have to keep an eye out. It's too soon to know if it will be just a wet period, or something slightly more serious.

Speaking of serious, how about Hurricane Lee? It's still way out there, many days from threatening most land areas. But it is a category 5 monster with top winds of a whopping 165 mph.  The National Hurricane Center has it reaching 180 mph later today. 

It's still way too soon to determine whether Hurricane Lee will menace the United States or Canada, and if so, where. Lee's forward speed is painfully slow, just 14 mph at the moment, so it's going to take awhile for it decide what to do. It will keep moving toward the northwest through Wednesday. But even by Wednesday, it will still be far off the U.S. East Coast. 

It will eventually turn northward, but the question is will it do so in time to miss land and curve out to sea?  The early thinking, very much subject to change, is the best chances of a strike are in southeastern Canada. And if there is a landfall, it won't happen until at least next Friday, possibly later.  So there's time. 

At this point, I'd say everyone between North Carolina and Newfoundland should probably monitor Hurricane Lee, just in case.