Vermont Just Can't Shake Those Flood Threats

Thunderstorms light up the evening sky southeast of
St. Albans Friday evening. We're back in a stormy
pattern here in Vermont.

 I hate the word "flood" is back in the discussion of weather in Vermont this week.

No need to panic, nobody at this point is expected a repeat of the July calamity that befell the Green Mountain State. 

But we've been jumpy ever since, because new heavy rain events have kept cropping up since.

We did have the best reprieve of the summer in the closing days of August and the first few days of September with the longest dry spell since late May and early June.

Now, we're back into the heavy rainers, and strong storms. 

As we reported earlier, there was some urban flooding in and around Burlington Thursday. Later Thursday, the storms moved into southern Vermont, causing more havoc there. Sadly, a Massachusetts man camping in Somerset died when a tree fell on him during the storms.

Areas in and near Manchester on Thursday suffered extensive tree damage, power outages that lasted well into Friday, and some flash flooding.

On Friday, a flash flood warning went up for extreme southeast Vermont went up because up to three inches of rain had fallen in a short period of time during intense thunderstorms. I haven't seen reports of severe flooding down that way, but quarter-sized hail caused a little damage to cars in Brattleboro and high winds blew down trees in Guilford.

Between Thursday and Friday, most of Vermont has gotten a fair amount of rain, which has started to pre-soak the ground again for subsequent storms coming up in the next few days.  Over the next week, forecasts call for two to four inches of additional rain, with locally higher amounts, which could create a few problems. 

We have two more slow moving storms to go at least. The first has a low, but not zero chance of causing more flooding risks in Vermont.  And if things pan out as currently forecast, there's a somewhat greater risk of some flooding Wednesday or Thursday. 

After that, there's a very, very low, but again not zero risk of effects from Hurricane Lee. Let's break it all down, with a note that forecasts could shift from what I have outlined below: 

TODAY

We'll get a break today, both from rain and some of the humidity. Showers look like they'll be few and far between, and most of us will stay dry.  Humidity levels are down, especially in northern Vermont. Temperatures have crashed, too. Highs today will only be in the low to mid 70s, which is about average for this time of year. I'm betting we're done with 90 degree weather until next May or June. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

The cold front that caused yesterday's storms is stalled just to our southeast. New low pressure running a similarly stalled humid southerly flow will come up this way, with a batch of locally heavy rain once again.   

Departing thunderstorms Friday evening east of St. Albans,
Vermont cast an odd glow on the landscape. 

If some heavier thunderstorms can get going in this system, we could have local flash flood problems. Again, nothing at all widespread, but there could be a few instances of unneeded roadside washouts, driveway issues and lowland flooding here and there. 

Most of us should get roughly an inch of rain between Sunday and Monday. It's just those one or two spots that get heavier downpours one after another during this that could spell trouble.  Even if there's no flooding, the ground by the time this is over will be quite soggy again. Squish, squish. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

Now, before I get into this, the forecast could shift dramatically, and put us in the clear. But as of right now, the next storm riding the humid air flow off the Atlantic looks to be a stronger one, and could really dump some heavy rain on us. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center already has most of New England, including Vermont, in a risk zone for some flooding on Wednesday.  It's unusual for them to forecast something like that this far in advance, so I guess they have a higher than normal confidence in the forecast. 

This could be a pretty substantial rainfall, so we'll keep an eye on it. Details to follow as we get closer to the event. 

HURRICANE LEE

Big, bold, powerful Hurricane Lee is still slowly trudging northwestward in the Atlantic Ocean. It has weakened some, with top winds down to a "mere" 115 mph, but forecasts call for it to re-strengthen, at least some, in the coming days. 

As of this morning, Lee was pretty far to the east of Puerto Rico.

It's still expected to continue on that path through Tuesday, and then at some point after that turn north. 

Where it turns north will determine whether Vermont sees any effects of this giant storm.  Right now, projections have Hurricane Lee passing well to our east, possibly slamming into Nova Scotia by next weekend. 

But that's not a given. There's still a TON of factors that could steer Hurricane Lee close to New England, or much more preferably, push it far out to sea so it doesn't hit land at all. 

If we have any effects from Lee in Vermont, it would probably be around Saturday. Right now, I'm not that worried about it. We'll have plenty of warning if it steers toward New England.  I'm kind of comforted that for the past few days, forecasts keep pushing the hurricane at least a little east of New England. 

The coast is under the gun for big waves and coastal flooding. But if projections hold, Vermont would get off with just having a dry, breezy Saturday. We'll see if that welcome (for us, anyway!) trend continues.