Still Watching Two Vermont Flood Threats, And Hurricane Lee

During a brief break in our humid, rainy 
weather of late, I checked out a sunflower
in my yard that definitely 
over performed in this year's soggy conditions.

I was surprised to be woken by the sound of thunder in the wee hours of this morning. "How far off I sat and wondered," I thought, quoting an old Bob Seger song. To my husband's great relief, I did NOT start humming a song from 1962 at that point.  

In any event, we have a little more thunder and a LOT more rain to get through this week. Yeah, we're back at it. 

The forecast scenario hasn't changed too much since I got into this in yesterday's post. I was hoping we'd squeak out a dry Sunday morning today before the rain set in this afternoon, but that's looking less likely. As I write this after 8 a.m., not everybody in Vermont is getting rain, but there are plenty of showers scattered about. 

Everywhere. it's misty, muggy and murky.  Rain will pick up today, and become heavy at times into this evening. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has upgraded us a bit to a slight risk of excessive rain and flooding today. That's a change for the even iffier marginal risk we were under in previous forecasts.  

 So far, there is no flood watch in effect for today, as any flooding problems at this point look like they will be pretty isolated and spotty. 

One reason for the relatively low but not zero flood risk today is this:  The heaviest rain over the past few days fell mostly in the Champlain Valley. It was somewhat drier east of the Green Mountains, especially north of Springfield, Vermont.  The heaviest rain today looks like it might set up in eastern Vermont, with somewhat lighter amounts in places like Burlington, Middlebury and St. Albans. 

Total rainfall from today and tonight's episode should range for nearly three quarter of an inch northwest to up to 1.5 inches east. The isolated flood risk, if any, would come if any embedded thunderstorms or downpours hit the same spot repeatedly. Then you get a local flash floods. 

The rain through tomorrow morning will not be enough to cause any problems at all along the main rivers. They will rise somewhat, but will fall well short of flood level, so that's good.

NEXT STORM

So far, computer models are remarkably in sync with each other, especially for a storm that's a few days away. It's still looking like we might see a ton of rain Wednesday and possibly into Thursday. 

By tons of rain, I don't mean the four to eight inches we endured in the Great Flood of '23 in July.  But the midweek rains do still like they might be enough to cause some problems. 

A piece of the Bermuda High, the thing famous for causing heat waves, is unusually far to the north and west. A stronger system than today's comes toward us from the Midwest by Wednesday. That and the Bermuda High will work together to channel lots of tropical moisture toward us. 

The result, if things come together correctly, could be some pretty impressive downpours. I doubt flash flooding will be super widespread midweek, but it might be more extensive than the isolated cases we might or might see later today or tonight. 

Things could still change, but it's worth keeping an eye on

HURRICANE LEE

Not that there was ever a big chance of this, but it's looking less and less possible that Hurricane Lee would turn into another Great Hurricane of 1938. Which of course is wonderful news.

The 1938 hurricane was roughly in the position where Lee is now. But while Lee is sputtering a bit, weakened by somewhat strong upper level winds,  the 1938 hurricane stayed consistently powerful. 

Like what's expected of Lee, the 1938 hurricane turned north. But the 1938 storm did so at a position further west than Lee is likely to get. Another storm in Canada drew the 1938 hurricane so rapidly northward toward and into New England that it didn't have a chance to weaken over the colder waters along the East Coast.

That's why 1938 was such a disaster.

New England and Vermont are not entirely off the hook with Hurricane Lee just yet. It's still possible it could go more west than current forecasts. We still definitely need to keep an eye on troublemaker Lee. But so far, the consensus seems to want to draw Lee northward east of Cape Cod and then  toward Nova Scotia or New Brunswick.  

Knock on wood. 

As the week goes on, forecasters will get more and more confident about the future track of Hurricane Lee. But if forecasts hold (cross your fingers!) Vermont might get away Saturday or Sunday with just clouds and perhaps some stiff north or northeast breezes.  

Stay tuned!