Lee Batters Maine More Than Expected, Vermont Surprisingly Pleasant

The last of the clouds from Storm Lee leaving 
Vermont Saturday evening had the look of finely
textured marble. 

Former Hurricane Lee is now making its way out of southeastern Canada, fading near the cold waters of the North Atlantic and into history. 

The storm made landfall Saturday about 50 miles southeast of Eastport Maine in an area of New Brunswick, Canada. It skirted just a few miles west of the western tip of Nova Scotia before landfall. 

The eastern half of Maine got pummeled more than I expected. One death was reported when a large tree limb fell on a car in Searsport, Maine. 

Maine is the most heavily wooded state in the nation, so the high winds on soggy ground were able to take down a lot of trees. Some of which hit power lines. Around 11 percent of Maine residents lost power in the storm. Over in Nova Scotia, more than a quarter of the province's population had no electricity, according to the Associated Press.  

Meanwhile, here in Vermont, which isn't really that far from the tropical storm zone, got off even easier than the already optimistic forecasts ahead of the storm. 

Wind gusts had been forecast to be in the 30 to 40 mph range, but ended up being quite a bit less than that. Top wind speed in Burlington Saturday was an underwhelming 28 mph. 

Skies began to clear in parts of the state during the afternoon. The late afternoon and evening in western Vermont proved to be one of the nicest of the summer. 

Temperatures were perfect. Instead of annoying gusts, we had pleasant, soft light breezes.  . The skies were a deep blue, mixed with some finally, pretty, textured high clouds from the remnants of Lee's outflow. 

A NEW ENGLAND MISS OF SORTS

It's true Maine was pretty trashed by Lee, but this storm was yet another miss from a would-be hurricane in New England.  Lee was considered post-tropical by the time in neared Maine and Nova Scotia. And it made landfall just over the U.S. border in Canada. That means New England has not had a direct hit from a hurricane since Hurricane Bob in 1991.  

Irene in 2011 was a tropical storm - a particularly destructive one - by the time it hit New England, so it doesn't count as a hurricane. Floyd in 1999,  Isaias in 2020 and a few others were also former hurricanes, when they hit New England, but were downgraded by the time they got here. 

That's an awfully long time for us to avoid a hurricane. And puts New Englanders out of practice as to how to deal with a hurricane. True, we get big nor'easters which are also intense storms, but hurricanes usually have worse storm surges, more intense winds and heavier rain that nor'easters. 

That 1991 Hurricane Bob is an example of what an happen with a New England hurricane. It was a category two storm at landfall in Rhode Island. The storm killed more than a dozen people and caused $1.5 billion in damage. 

Any hurricane hitting New England would probably be as bad as Hurricane Bob, really. 

OTHER STORMS

While we were focusing on Lee, two other tropical systems have been bubbling along.  For a time Hurricane Margot was moving north in tandem with Lee, but it was several hundred miles to the east of that system. Since then, Margot has declined into a tropical storm, and should completely fall apart in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean today or tomorrow.

Elsewhere, as the old, obnoxious song by XTC goes, we're only making plans for Nigel.  But not that many plans, since Tropical Storm Nigel so far doesn't appear to be much of a threat, either. Nigel is expected to quickly grow into a hurricane, and a fairly strong one at that. But it will move north through the central Atlantic Ocean and poses no threat to the United States or Canada.

Another cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to move westward off the coast of Africa this week and that one will probably grow into a tropical storm or hurricane. It's way, way, way too soon to know what that thing will do.  

Small Storm In Middle Of Nowhere To Become Very Powerful Hurricane. Then What?

Brand new Tropical Storm Lee, halfway between Africa and
the Lesser Antilles this afternoon, already has "that look"
on satellite photos, suggesting it will turn into a very
powerful hurricane, as forecasters anticipate.

 A tropical depression - often a precursor to a tropical storm or hurricane, formed today in the middle of nowhere, Atlantic Ocean. 

By late this afternoon, it had already strengthened into Tropical Storm Lee. 

At last check, it was about halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, a north/south chain of islands that marks the extreme northeastern corner of the Caribbean Sea.

This storm, a nothing burger as of early Tuesday afternoon, wouldn't even be worth mentioning except that forecasters are way more confident than usual in this type of situation that this will become a very powerful hurricane. 

Conditions are nearly perfect for what will eventually be Hurricane Lee to strengthen into a monster. The water it's going over is at record warm levels. 

Super warm water is jet fuel for hurricanes. Upper level winds over the storm are expected to be quite light, especially starting mid to late week. That's another necessary ingredient for a monster storm.

By Sunday, the National Hurricane Center expects top winds with Lee to be 145 mph.  It could be even stronger. Some of the computer models suggest it will be stronger than that. 

With such a strong hurricane out there, it's natural to start worrying about any land it might hit. This is a Cape Verde hurricane, so named because that's the area where it originated.

Cape Verde hurricanes are notorious for being extreme disasters. Huge hurricanes ranging from the Great New England hurricane of 1938 to Hurricane Dorian in 2019 were Cape Verde types.

Nobody knows for sure where this storm will end up, but early signs are actually kind of encouraging.  The current hope is that it will go north of the Lesser Antilles and north of Puerto Rico, which would minimize damage.

Then what?  At that point, a week from now,  Lee will still be heading toward the United States, which of course would be really bad.

Again, no guarantees, but early signs are again hopeful.  If it strengthens quickly, chances are it will make a north turn earlier, missing the East Coast. If stays weak until it gets closer to the Caribbean, then it will probably track further west, becoming a bigger threat to the East Coast.

Current forecasts have Lee getting really strong early in its life, which could help. 

Also, the heat ridge that's now baking Vermont and the rest of the eastern United States and southeastern Canada will be replaced by a much cooler dip in the jet stream within a week.

This dip, called a trough, if it sets up over the eastern United States, will tend to deflect Lee, making it move north, then northeast well off the coast. 

Again, though, Lee bears watching. If the trough in the eastern United States turns out weaker than expected, or further west than forecast, that could open the door for the hurricane to turn north the East Coast of the United States or into southeastern Canada. 

I did see one computer run that had this smashing into New England as a powerful hurricane. However, for complicated reasons, that scenario didn't make meteorological sense. This afternoon's run of the American computer model today had it hitting Cape Cod and eastern Maine around September 16.  I also find that prognostication unconvincing. 

Computer model forecasts beyond five days are often notoriously inaccurate. 

However, unpleasant surprises have happened. Forecasts had called for Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Hurricane Florence in 2018 to curve northward and miss the United States. Florence ended up striking North Carolina and Irma hit Florida. Both were Cape Verde hurricanes, and both caused billions of dollars in damage.

In any event, it's way, way too early to think about how close Lee comes to the East Coast. We'll know much more in about four to seven days from now.  Until then, try not to wilt in the tropical heat that has engulfed Vermont this week.