As Hilary Floods Subside, Atlantic Ocean Tropical Storms Blossom Quickly

The Atlantic Ocean suddenly blossomed with tropical
storms and potential storms over the weekend. 

 As expected Hurricane Hilary, down to tropical storm status Sunday drenched southern California and surrounding areas with inches of rain. 

Also as expected, there's widespread flooding, mudslides, road washouts, fallen trees and power outages. Unexpectedly, a 5.1 earthquake centered under Ojai, California shook the Los Angeles area. Luckily, the earthquake did not add much to the extensive damage from Hilary. 

Sone of the worst  or most disruptive damage I saw was that both lanes of heavily traveled Interstate 10 near Palm Springs, California was washed out. Traffic was backed up for miles and miles, and it looked like on video a few cars got caught up in in the flooding and mud flows. 

While all eyes were on Hilary, the Atlantic Ocean suddenly blew up with tropical storms. Three tropical storms - Emily, Franklin and Gert quickly formed in the Atlantic tropics and a fourth tropical storm seems set to form as early as today in the Gulf of Mexico.

There's two opposing factors acting in the Atlantic right now. One of them encourages tropical storms, the other discourages them from getting powerful.

The Atlantic Ocean waters overall are at record high temperatures right now.  Tropical storms and hurricanes thrive on warm water - the warmer the better.  That toasty water makes it easier for tropical storms to form, so that's a large reason why we suddenly have so many. 

The opposing factors is El Nino.  That's a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean that's well under way right now. It's expected to continue for several months at least. El Nino tends to drive up the world's temperatures. Combined with climate change, El Nino is largely responsible for record heat around the Globe this summer. 

El Nino also tends to increase upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean. Those strong high level winds tear apart the thunderstorms that fuel tropical storms and hurricanes, so they can't develop well. 

That so far seems to be tempering the ability for all those storms in the Atlantic from becoming dangerous.  The caveat is if any of the storms wander into an area with lighter winds up high, they can finally blossom big time. Were that to happen near a coastline a rapidly developing hurricane could be scary, as you might imagine.

Tropical storms and hurricanes can also surprise forecasters, so you alway have to keep an eye on them.  So far, though, these storms are not much of a threat, except for one that threatens Hispaniola with heavy rain and another that hasn't quite developed yet in the Gulf of Mexico.

Let's briefly look at each storm:

EMILY: This is the most distant of all the storms, hanging around way, way out in the central Atlantic Ocean far from any land. As of this morning Emily's top winds were 40 mph, so it's barely strong enough to be regarded as a tropical storm.

Those strong upper level El Nino winds are ripping thunderstorms away from its center, and Emily is expected to pretty quickly fizzle out as it moves northwestward then northward in the central Atlantic. I wouldn't worry much at all about this one. 

FRANKLIN: So far, Franklin is the worst of the bunch, though of course it's nothing extreme compared to many Atlantic Ocean monster hurricanes of the past. 

Of course, Franklin isn't even a hurricane, just a tropical storm, given that its top winds are around 50 mph. It's in the central Caribbean Sea, and it's about to turn northward and head to Hispaniola in the next few days.  It threatens to bring heavy rains, flooding and mudslides to that island and to Puerto Rico.

El Nino's upper level winds are affecting Franklin, but not as much as it is for the other systems in the Atlantic. Franklin is not forecast to strengthen much on its way to Hispaniola.  It might end up becoming a hurricane after it gets north of that island at a point far south of Bermuda.

There's a slight chance that Franklin could eventually affect parts of Atlantic Canada in a week or two, but the risk so far appears low. But it bears watching. 

GERT: Tropical Storm Gert is the oldest but lamest of the bunch.  It struggled all day Sunday as a tropical depression, not even strong enough to be called a tropical storm. But its winds managed to increase to a still paltry 40 mph last night, so it got named Tropical Storm Gert. 

Gert was rapidly falling apart this morning, so we can just forget about it

WANNABE HAROLD:  If the storminess in the Gulf of Mexico becomes an actual tropical storm, it will likely be named Harold.

Wannabe Harold looks like it will indeed develop into a tropical storm and start heading westward. It has a good shot at being a threat to southern Texas or northeastern Mexico late in the week

HOW THIS AFFECT US

So far, tropical storms are absolutely no threat to us here in Vermont. Which is good news. After all the flooding we had this summer and the wet ground we have now, the last thing we need is a tropical storm. 

None of the storms I mentioned are any kind of threat to us. Moreover, we should hope the weather pattern we have this week persists through hurricane season.

The northwest flow from southern and central Canada that we have now would tend to push any northward moving hurricane offshore.  

We wouldn't want to have the weather pattern we did in July. That one featured an upper level low to our northwest and a dip in the jet stream over or near the Great Lakes. That pattern would have on occasion drawn a northward moving hurricane or tropical storm toward New England. That wouldn't be good. 

So, despite the clouds and light showers this morning enjoy an otherwise dry week for a change. 

Hilary Slamming California/Nevada; Nation's Middle Is Baking And Getting Even Hotter

In a still image from a video, extreme
flooding from Hurricane Hilary in 
Santa Rosalia, Mexico, on the
Baja Peninsula. This could well be
a preview of what will happen in
the southwestern U.S. today. 

 All eyes are on southwestern United States  today as Hurricane Hilary will sweep through today. 

By the time it reaches California, it will be downgraded to a tropical storm, but that doesn't matter in terms impacts. 

Huge areas of the West are under flood watches and warnings. Damaging  high winds are expected in Mexico, up through southern California and western Arizona, through Nevada, and possible up to the Idaho border.

Most of these winds will whistle over mountain passes. 

Rain is the real story, as unprecedented rains will be unleashed. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center said some normally arid areas will see a year's worth of rain in on day. Nevada is in line to have its wettest day anywhere in the state, as up to seven inches of rain are expected in some of the mountains in southern Nevada.

In these mountains, the most rain usually falls in the winter, on the west side of the slopes as storms come in from the Pacific Ocean. 

This will be different. The very arid east slopes will see the moisture come in on strong east and southeast winds. This is quite a rare occurrence. Places that practically get no rain could see it come down at a rate of up to three inches per hours. 

That's a recipe for not only for extreme flash floods, but debris flows and mud slides as well. 

The moisture from Hilary is streaming as far north as Oregon and Idaho, and flash floods are expected there as well. 

Rainfall forecasts in broad terms are about the same as they were in Vermont with the catastrophic flooding we had on July 10-11.

Believe it or not, despite the wet weather we had before that Vermont event, a little of that rainfall was able to soak into our ground, though much of it rain off and caused our flooding. In the deserts and rocks and ridges and mesas of southern California and Nevada, very little if any water will soak in.

It will all rush down hillsides into the settlements, small cities and resorts in California, Nevada and Arizona

The areas around big cities like Los Angeles and San Diego will have their share of problems with flooding, debris flows and wind damage. 

But the most extreme trouble is inland, through places like Death Valley, Coachella, San Bernardino, Palm Springs, California and Yuma, Arizona.  Extreme flooding is likely there. 

Joshua Tree and Death Valley national parks are of course closed. The irony is just three weeks ago, a wildfire was damaging Joshua Tree National Park. 

Heavy rains have already fallen in advance of Hilary, causing flooding in California and around Las Vegas.  Sin City should have some pretty intense floods from this one. 

There will be a lot of news on this later today, I'm sure. 

MIDWEST HEAT

Meanwhile, most of the nation's middle is in a long lasting heat wave that will last days, causing misery from Texas to the Dakotas. 

An intense dome of high pressure is parked over the region, causing the heat. Record high temperatures have already occurred, and more are on the way. 

Temperatures could go as high as 105 degrees as far north as parts of South Dakota. 

The longer a heat wave goes on, especially one with record highs like this one, the more dangerous it gets for human health.  The heat started in earnest Saturday, and will go into this Friday. 

In places like Texas and Louisiana, the heat started weeks ago and will only intensify over the next few days.

WILDFIRES

Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest is suffering from dry winds, wildfires and smoke from those fires in the United States and up in British Columbia. 

An entire town of 5,000 people in eastern Washington State was evacuated, and the fire closed part of Interstate 90, a major route into and out of Spokane. One person has already reportedly died in the fires. 

Strong, dry east winds, partly from the remains of Hilary, are expected to worsen the fires today and tomorrow. 

QUIET FOR US THOUGH

The heat in the Midwest will be held at bay by a northwest air flow out of Canada that will keep the weather quiet here. I think for once, we in Vermont have practically the only boring weather in the nation. 

Skies this week will be partly cloudy on average. There might be a couple light showers Monday and perhaps something a little more substantial but not dangerous at the end of the week.  Since the air flow will be from the northwest it will be cool. 

This being the awful summer of 2023, you know we can't escape everything. Wildfire smoke from Canada's Northwest Territories and British Columbia is over us today, causing some haze and making the air quality not great.

This state of affairs should continue in varying intensities through the week. Haze from smoke will continue to be a frequent visitor to the Green Mountain State.