Busy, Busy Tropics, Fred, Grace, Henri

Right on schedule, the tropical Atlantic has flared up in the past few days and tropical storms are already causing havoc and damage in different parts of the ocean.   

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Fred making landfall
Monday in the Florida Panhandle.  The storm will 
cause dangerous flash flooding and landslides in the 
southern Appalachians today.

The one pestering the United States the most is now former Tropical Storm Fred. This one reflected a dangerous trend in tropical storms and hurricanes we've seen in recent years. It strengthened pretty rapidly right before landfall.

Luckily, Fred was a disorganized mess Sunday in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico so it got off to a slow start. Then it simply ran out of time to keep getting stronger on Monday when it hit land.

Still, Fred managed to ramp up to sustained winds of 65 mph and create a two to three foot storm surge on the Florida Panhandle.  Several thousand homes and business lost power as the gusty winds took down lines in that area. 

Actually, today is going to be the more dangerous day with Fred. Its winds are pretty much gone, but its remains are moving into the soggy southern Appalachians, where substantial flooding now seems inevitable.

Parts of western North Carolina near Asheville got four to seven inches of rain yesterday, and that same amount is forecast for the same area today with Fred.  Flash flooding, landslides and river flooding are all a good bet.

They're telling people who live near steep slopes of the southern Appalachians to consider leaving for awhile because the rock slide and land slide risk is so great. At the very least, people shouldn't be traveling along mountain roads the next few days due to the risk of flash floods and landslides.

Moisture with Fred will move north the rest of this week, raising the risk of flooding up the East Coast all the way to southern New England. It's been a sopping wet summer in these areas and that trend will continue. 

Speaking of trends, this will sound familiar here in Vermont. It looks like relatively heavy rains will fall on southern Vermont, which really doesn't need it. But not much rain at all will fall in the north, which DOES need the rain. 

That's been the story all year and I guess that state of affairs is permanent, I dunno.

Next in the tropical storm parade is Grace, which was flooding earthquake ravaged Haiti this morning with torrential rains. Current projections have Tropical Storm Grace missing the United States. Instead, it will make a straight beeline from near Jamaica to Mexico this week. It could strengthen into a hurricane by the time it makes it to Mexico.

Then there's new Tropical Storm Henri, out there meandering near Bermuda. At this point, it's expected to stay out to sea and not bother anybody on the East Coast of the United States.

Now through mid-September is the time we need to start watching the west coast of Africa. During this time of year disturbance move westward off that coast line.  These disturbances are the ones that most often turn into the most dangerous powerhouse hurricanes of the season.

There's nothing big bubbling up in that neck of the woods at the moment, but it's only a matter of time.

Fred And Grace: Flood Disasters In The Making

Earthquake destruction in Haiti on Saturday. Now, Tropical
Storm Grace is  headed toward the island, which will 
cause even more suffering. 

 Since it's August the Atlantic Ocean tropical storm and hurricane potential is now rising rapidly toward peak season by September. 

There are two tropical systems in the news, neither of which seem at the moment anyway to be destined to become powerhouse hurricanes. But both are potential big time weather disasters. As if we need more. 

The first is former and probably soon to be Tropical Storm Fred. It got wrecked over the past couple of days by unfavorable atmospheric conditions and a tangle with land around Cuba. (Tropical storms tend to fall apart over land, but can strengthen over water).

Zombie Fred was in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning and is expected to return to status as real live Tropical Storm Fred today.  The National Hurricane Center thinks it will come ashore in the western Florida panhandle or southern Mississippi overnight Monday or early Tuesday. 

It'll never really get its act together in terms of high winds. At least that's the current forecast. But it will dump heavy rain from in the Southeast. That seems especially true in the mountains of North Georgia and on into the interior Carolinas.

It's been wet down there lately, so the expected half foot or more of rain this upcoming week in the southern Appalachians sounds like a recipe for dangerous and deadly flash floods.  Stay tuned for that. 

I'm even more worried about Tropical Storm Grace.  

Haiti suffered another terrible earthquake on Saturday. At last report, the 7.2 magnitude quake has already resulted in more than 300 confirmed deaths, and that toll is expected to rise sharply.  There's widespread destruction from the quake in what is already the Western Hemisphere's poorest nation.

Which brings us to Tropical Storm Grace.  Like Fred, Grace is not expected to be a wind powerhouse, at least not in the next few days. But it will pass over or near Haiti tomorrow, with torrential downpours and gusty winds. 

This causes an extreme nightmare for Haiti. For one thing, steep slopes made unstable by the earthquake are prone to land slides in Grace's expected heavy rain, which would lead to more destruction and death in a part of the world that certainly doesn't need it. 

The storm will also surely seriously disrupt relief and rescue operations to the max.  This is basically a worst case scenario.

Like Fred, it seems like Grace will eventually affect Cuba, Florida and maybe other parts of the southeastern United States in the coming days.