Fred Soaks Vermont Today, Threatens Flooding. Then What Will Henri Do?

UPDATE EARLY AFTERNOON

As the first rain bands from former Tropical Storm Fred

moved into St. Albans, the sun rising in the sky to the 

northeast shined into the rain, causing an 

otherworldly orange glow.   While flooding is unlikely

in St. Albans from Ex-Fred, there is a risk of flash

flooding in the southern two thirds of Vermont today.

Ex-Fred has so far behaved pretty well in Vermont, but we're not necessarily out of the woods yet More on that in a sec.

The storm has NOT been friendly in southern New England and southern New York. It looks like there might have been a couple tornadoes in the Hudson Valley or Catskills, New Jersey and/or Connecticut.

There was also a tornado warning for awhile early this afternoon in some of the North Shore communities near Boston, places like Revere, Lynn, Nahant, Swampscott. Not sure if one touched down or not there.

Flash flooding certainly walloped parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts. Streets were badly flooded around Hartford.  Cars were in water up to their rooftops in at least one road in Worcester, Massachusetts. There's quite a few reports of roads closed, flooded basements and some water rescues in southern New England. 

Some showers will get going in southern and central Vermont now that the steady rain has largely passed. The question now is will those showers be torrential enough to cause local flash floods, or will they be pretty benign. 

As of 1 p.m., the flash flood watch had been lifted for far southern Vermont, but no yet for Rutland and Windsor counties, and in central Vermont.  That's being assessed as I write this. The fact that National Weather Service radar has been down for the past couple of hours is unfortunate and unhelpful.

Congress really needs to appropriate funds to the National Weather Service to drag their technology out of the stone age and into the 21st century. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 Rain started in most of Vermont before dawn, as the remains of Tropical Storm Fred continue to create flooding and storms across the Northeast.  

After spinning up some severe storms and floods to our south in the Mid-Atlantic states, it's New England's turn today.

The biggest zone of worry today will be in central New York, where a few flood warnings are already in effect, then on through central and southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, maybe southern Maine and northern Massachusetts.

Northern Vermont and New York are getting decent rains this morning, but I think things will be fairly well behaved along and north of Route 2. 

The rain moving into these areas from the northern Adirondacks seemed to be intensifying a little as it moved toward Vermont before dawn, but it doesn't look like there will be much of a flood threat.

The heaviest rain band in this batch was just approaching Burlington as of 8:30 this morning. 

It's been drier up north, and the rain in the north is more of a steady drenching, not the torrential downpours that can set up flash flooding.  There might be some minor urban flooding, ponding of water on roads, and maybe a little erosion on steep gravel roads and driveways, but it won't be a huge deal.

Besides, far northern Vermont could still use more rain, so this is good.  My hot take: A little more rain than originally expected up north, but don't worry too much about it. 

Further south, it's looking decidedly less good.  We're not talking Irene-scale destruction, but I am worried areas of flash flooding that could develop during the day.  Ex-Fred has a feeder band coming in from the southeast, bringing tropical moisture northwestward toward central New England.

The moisture will be forced to rise as it hits the higher elevations of western Massachusetts, and southern parts of Vermont and New Hampshire. This wet air has already caused some fairly substantial flash flooding in parts of Connecticut.

The threat with this is local torrential downpours with this feeder band.  Former tropical systems tend to be really efficient rain makers, so this could be a real threat.

I'd say the highest threat of any flash flooding would be especially on south and east facing slopes of the southern Green Mountains. 

After an initial burst of rain this morning, some predictions indicate clouds might thin for a bit over southern Vermont. That would help trigger thunderstorms. Given the very humid air brought north by Ex-Fred, the rain could be absolutely torrential with these, adding to the risk of local flash floods.

If the heaviest rain is able to work its way into Addison County and maybe Orange County, there could be some real flooding worries there, too. That's because a band of soaking rain set up there yesterday morning.  It's already soggy, so if a lot of rain falls, the water will rise pretty readily. 

I'm already seeing some flash flood warnings pop up in the western Adirondacks, so we'll need to keep an eye on whether that heavy rain makes it to central Vermont.

If your area goes under a flash flood warning, take it VERY seriously.  Move to higher ground if you're in a flood prone spot. Don't drive through water or debris on roads. You won't know until it's too late whether the road is washed out. Also, it takes surprisingly little water to sweep a car away.

If you don't believe my story about flash floods being dangerous, consider this:  When Fred moved through the mountains of North Carolina the other day, walls of water and mud swept down creek beds and hollows and into towns. At this point, 35 people are unaccounted for. 

Things are pretty grim in North Carolina.

Ex-Fred's rains seem to be moving a little faster than at least I expected, so I think the worst of the rain will be over by mid to late afternoon. That will just leave us stuck in the humid air for a few more days. 

And.....we need to watch another tropical system

HENRI AND NEW ENGLAND

Since we're focusing on Ex-Fred, I won't get into the next system that much today.  However, Tropical Storm Henri is lurking southwest of Bermuda.  It was just shy of hurricane status this morning, with top winds of 70 mph.

It is currently forecast to grow into a hurricane, and could threaten New England Sunday or Monday.

Upper level winds right now are hindering Henri's development. If that continues, chances are greater that the storm will pass east of New England, causing relatively minor problems.

If Henri blows up bigger, though, it could smack right into southeastern New England. Right now,  it seems the chances of the smacking into New England scenario is not as great as a close miss. But there's still a decent chance, so let's keep our eye out! More details coming on Henri tomorrow in this space. 

Remains Of Fred Could Flood Northeast U.S. Including Parts Of Vermont

Flash flooding is a good bet in the red area of the 
map today.  Yellow areas have a slight risk, and
green areas a marginal risk. Note the slight 
risk edging into Vermont. That flood risk
will continue well into tomorrow in 
southern parts of the Green Mountain State

UPDATE: Flash flood watch in Vermont for because of Ex-Fred has been extended north to roughly a Ferrisburgh -Montpelier - Wells River line.

It looks like pretty heavy rain will fall as far north as Route 2, so that raises the flood risk.,  One to three inches of rain is forecast in the newly extended flash flood watch area.

The watch is in effect Thursday morning to Friday morning. 

I'm a little bit extra worried about Addison County,  northern Rutland County and Orange County.  A band of heavy rain has been moving through that area all morning.

There could even be some minor flooding in this zone through early afternoon when the rain band is expected to weaken

That band has really super saturated the ground there, priming the pump for some potential flash flooding there from Ex-Fred tomorrow..  We'll keep an eye on it.   

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The remains of Tropical Storm Fred, as expected, caused a lot of problems as it rolled northeastward through the southern Appalachian chain on Tuesday.  

This storm will continue to cause flooding issues Do note southern Vermont is once again in the flood risk zone because of ex-Fred.

There were no fewer than 13 tornadoes in the Carolinas and Georgia spun up by Fred on Tuesday.   Flash flooding struck the mountain  near the North Carolina/Tennessee border.  

Though details were still sketchy as of this Wednesday morning, there are reports of homes either swept away or damaged by extensive flooding in this area. 

The center of what was Fred was over West Virginia early this morning, and flash flooding was rushing down the steep slopes of West Virginia's mountains this morning. 

The remains of Fred will continue to bring tons of tropical moisture and dump it as torrential downpours today in Pennsylvania and southwestern and central New York. There's even the risk of a few more spin up tornadoes in Pennsylvania and Maryland today, we'll see. 

Today, that Fred-related wet air will focus on Pennsylvania and New York today, where plenty of flash flooding is expected today on already sodden ground.  Then move into southern and central New England tonight, which brings us to what's going to happen in Vermont

VERMONT IMPACTS

Humid air out ahead of Former Fred flooded into Vermont Tuesday causing lots of showers to break out, but none of them were particularly heavy.  

A torrential rain band that caused flash flooding in western New York was continuing to feed into central Vermont this morning in a weaker fashion.  There's no flooding there today, but rainfall has been heavier in that zone.  I'm sure a few spots halfway between Route 4 and Route 2 picked up a half inch or more of rain. There's probably been an inch of rain in a few spots in western Addison County.

The showery state of affairs is continuing this morning, though the showers might temporarily wane somewhat by this afternoon.  Then we start to deal with Ex-Fred.

Forecasting the evolution of former tropical storms that are well inland can be tricky, as a small shift in the expected path could make a big difference. 

But at this point it looks like Ex-Fred will move through central New England late tonight and Thursday, possibly as far north as the southern borders of Vermont and New Hampshire. 

This would spread heavier rain through the southern half of Vermont, and maybe up the Connecticut River Valley toward St. Johnsbury as well. 

Current forecasts call for more than two inches of rain in southern Vermont.  Perhaps much more if things line up correctly.  That would set this part of Vermont up for the third flash flood of the summer. Bennington and Windham counties are already under flash flood watches, given the possibility of up to four inches of rain there. 

Soils down there are still awfully wet, so it wouldn't take all that much precipitation to set off some flooding. 

The amount of rain from Ex-Fred would diminish quite a bit as soon as you get north of Route 2.  That's the current prog, anyway.  Best guess is an inch or a little more of rain south of a Burlington to Newport line.  The far northwest corner of Vermont would see a half inch or even less.

There's always the chance that the heavier rain could work itself further north, which would actually be OK.  Far northern Vermont could still use more rain, though drought conditions have eased a little there. 

This will already be the second time this year that a former tropical system affected Vermont.  Former Hurricane Elsa dumped heavy rain on southeast Vermont in early July, causing some spotty flooding.

There is a low, but not-zero possibility another tropical system might affect Vermont in the near future.  Tropical Storm Henri.  It's buzzing around Bermuda and expected to become a hurricane.  Forecasts have been calling for Henri to turn toward the northeast eventually and pass safely off the New England coast.

However, some forecasts build a ridge of high pressure over southeastern Canada, and that would steer Henri closer to the New England coast. That's still really iffy, so we'll just need to keep an eye on it. 

 

Busy, Busy Tropics, Fred, Grace, Henri

Right on schedule, the tropical Atlantic has flared up in the past few days and tropical storms are already causing havoc and damage in different parts of the ocean.   

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Fred making landfall
Monday in the Florida Panhandle.  The storm will 
cause dangerous flash flooding and landslides in the 
southern Appalachians today.

The one pestering the United States the most is now former Tropical Storm Fred. This one reflected a dangerous trend in tropical storms and hurricanes we've seen in recent years. It strengthened pretty rapidly right before landfall.

Luckily, Fred was a disorganized mess Sunday in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico so it got off to a slow start. Then it simply ran out of time to keep getting stronger on Monday when it hit land.

Still, Fred managed to ramp up to sustained winds of 65 mph and create a two to three foot storm surge on the Florida Panhandle.  Several thousand homes and business lost power as the gusty winds took down lines in that area. 

Actually, today is going to be the more dangerous day with Fred. Its winds are pretty much gone, but its remains are moving into the soggy southern Appalachians, where substantial flooding now seems inevitable.

Parts of western North Carolina near Asheville got four to seven inches of rain yesterday, and that same amount is forecast for the same area today with Fred.  Flash flooding, landslides and river flooding are all a good bet.

They're telling people who live near steep slopes of the southern Appalachians to consider leaving for awhile because the rock slide and land slide risk is so great. At the very least, people shouldn't be traveling along mountain roads the next few days due to the risk of flash floods and landslides.

Moisture with Fred will move north the rest of this week, raising the risk of flooding up the East Coast all the way to southern New England. It's been a sopping wet summer in these areas and that trend will continue. 

Speaking of trends, this will sound familiar here in Vermont. It looks like relatively heavy rains will fall on southern Vermont, which really doesn't need it. But not much rain at all will fall in the north, which DOES need the rain. 

That's been the story all year and I guess that state of affairs is permanent, I dunno.

Next in the tropical storm parade is Grace, which was flooding earthquake ravaged Haiti this morning with torrential rains. Current projections have Tropical Storm Grace missing the United States. Instead, it will make a straight beeline from near Jamaica to Mexico this week. It could strengthen into a hurricane by the time it makes it to Mexico.

Then there's new Tropical Storm Henri, out there meandering near Bermuda. At this point, it's expected to stay out to sea and not bother anybody on the East Coast of the United States.

Now through mid-September is the time we need to start watching the west coast of Africa. During this time of year disturbance move westward off that coast line.  These disturbances are the ones that most often turn into the most dangerous powerhouse hurricanes of the season.

There's nothing big bubbling up in that neck of the woods at the moment, but it's only a matter of time.

Fred And Grace: Flood Disasters In The Making

Earthquake destruction in Haiti on Saturday. Now, Tropical
Storm Grace is  headed toward the island, which will 
cause even more suffering. 

 Since it's August the Atlantic Ocean tropical storm and hurricane potential is now rising rapidly toward peak season by September. 

There are two tropical systems in the news, neither of which seem at the moment anyway to be destined to become powerhouse hurricanes. But both are potential big time weather disasters. As if we need more. 

The first is former and probably soon to be Tropical Storm Fred. It got wrecked over the past couple of days by unfavorable atmospheric conditions and a tangle with land around Cuba. (Tropical storms tend to fall apart over land, but can strengthen over water).

Zombie Fred was in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning and is expected to return to status as real live Tropical Storm Fred today.  The National Hurricane Center thinks it will come ashore in the western Florida panhandle or southern Mississippi overnight Monday or early Tuesday. 

It'll never really get its act together in terms of high winds. At least that's the current forecast. But it will dump heavy rain from in the Southeast. That seems especially true in the mountains of North Georgia and on into the interior Carolinas.

It's been wet down there lately, so the expected half foot or more of rain this upcoming week in the southern Appalachians sounds like a recipe for dangerous and deadly flash floods.  Stay tuned for that. 

I'm even more worried about Tropical Storm Grace.  

Haiti suffered another terrible earthquake on Saturday. At last report, the 7.2 magnitude quake has already resulted in more than 300 confirmed deaths, and that toll is expected to rise sharply.  There's widespread destruction from the quake in what is already the Western Hemisphere's poorest nation.

Which brings us to Tropical Storm Grace.  Like Fred, Grace is not expected to be a wind powerhouse, at least not in the next few days. But it will pass over or near Haiti tomorrow, with torrential downpours and gusty winds. 

This causes an extreme nightmare for Haiti. For one thing, steep slopes made unstable by the earthquake are prone to land slides in Grace's expected heavy rain, which would lead to more destruction and death in a part of the world that certainly doesn't need it. 

The storm will also surely seriously disrupt relief and rescue operations to the max.  This is basically a worst case scenario.

Like Fred, it seems like Grace will eventually affect Cuba, Florida and maybe other parts of the southeastern United States in the coming days.