UPDATE EARLY AFTERNOON
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As the first rain bands from former Tropical Storm Fred moved into St. Albans, the sun rising in the sky to the northeast shined into the rain, causing an otherworldly orange glow. While flooding is unlikely in St. Albans from Ex-Fred, there is a risk of flash flooding in the southern two thirds of Vermont today. |
Ex-Fred has so far behaved pretty well in Vermont, but we're not necessarily out of the woods yet More on that in a sec.
The storm has NOT been friendly in southern New England and southern New York. It looks like there might have been a couple tornadoes in the Hudson Valley or Catskills, New Jersey and/or Connecticut.
There was also a tornado warning for awhile early this afternoon in some of the North Shore communities near Boston, places like Revere, Lynn, Nahant, Swampscott. Not sure if one touched down or not there.
Flash flooding certainly walloped parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts. Streets were badly flooded around Hartford. Cars were in water up to their rooftops in at least one road in Worcester, Massachusetts. There's quite a few reports of roads closed, flooded basements and some water rescues in southern New England.
Some showers will get going in southern and central Vermont now that the steady rain has largely passed. The question now is will those showers be torrential enough to cause local flash floods, or will they be pretty benign.
As of 1 p.m., the flash flood watch had been lifted for far southern Vermont, but no yet for Rutland and Windsor counties, and in central Vermont. That's being assessed as I write this. The fact that National Weather Service radar has been down for the past couple of hours is unfortunate and unhelpful.
Congress really needs to appropriate funds to the National Weather Service to drag their technology out of the stone age and into the 21st century.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
After spinning up some severe storms and floods to our south in the Mid-Atlantic states, it's New England's turn today.
The biggest zone of worry today will be in central New York, where a few flood warnings are already in effect, then on through central and southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, maybe southern Maine and northern Massachusetts.
Northern Vermont and New York are getting decent rains this morning, but I think things will be fairly well behaved along and north of Route 2.
The rain moving into these areas from the northern Adirondacks seemed to be intensifying a little as it moved toward Vermont before dawn, but it doesn't look like there will be much of a flood threat.
The heaviest rain band in this batch was just approaching Burlington as of 8:30 this morning.
It's been drier up north, and the rain in the north is more of a steady drenching, not the torrential downpours that can set up flash flooding. There might be some minor urban flooding, ponding of water on roads, and maybe a little erosion on steep gravel roads and driveways, but it won't be a huge deal.
Besides, far northern Vermont could still use more rain, so this is good. My hot take: A little more rain than originally expected up north, but don't worry too much about it.
Further south, it's looking decidedly less good. We're not talking Irene-scale destruction, but I am worried areas of flash flooding that could develop during the day. Ex-Fred has a feeder band coming in from the southeast, bringing tropical moisture northwestward toward central New England.
The moisture will be forced to rise as it hits the higher elevations of western Massachusetts, and southern parts of Vermont and New Hampshire. This wet air has already caused some fairly substantial flash flooding in parts of Connecticut.
The threat with this is local torrential downpours with this feeder band. Former tropical systems tend to be really efficient rain makers, so this could be a real threat.
I'd say the highest threat of any flash flooding would be especially on south and east facing slopes of the southern Green Mountains.
After an initial burst of rain this morning, some predictions indicate clouds might thin for a bit over southern Vermont. That would help trigger thunderstorms. Given the very humid air brought north by Ex-Fred, the rain could be absolutely torrential with these, adding to the risk of local flash floods.
If the heaviest rain is able to work its way into Addison County and maybe Orange County, there could be some real flooding worries there, too. That's because a band of soaking rain set up there yesterday morning. It's already soggy, so if a lot of rain falls, the water will rise pretty readily.
I'm already seeing some flash flood warnings pop up in the western Adirondacks, so we'll need to keep an eye on whether that heavy rain makes it to central Vermont.
If your area goes under a flash flood warning, take it VERY seriously. Move to higher ground if you're in a flood prone spot. Don't drive through water or debris on roads. You won't know until it's too late whether the road is washed out. Also, it takes surprisingly little water to sweep a car away.
If you don't believe my story about flash floods being dangerous, consider this: When Fred moved through the mountains of North Carolina the other day, walls of water and mud swept down creek beds and hollows and into towns. At this point, 35 people are unaccounted for.
Things are pretty grim in North Carolina.
Ex-Fred's rains seem to be moving a little faster than at least I expected, so I think the worst of the rain will be over by mid to late afternoon. That will just leave us stuck in the humid air for a few more days.
And.....we need to watch another tropical system
HENRI AND NEW ENGLAND
Since we're focusing on Ex-Fred, I won't get into the next system that much today. However, Tropical Storm Henri is lurking southwest of Bermuda. It was just shy of hurricane status this morning, with top winds of 70 mph.
It is currently forecast to grow into a hurricane, and could threaten New England Sunday or Monday.
Upper level winds right now are hindering Henri's development. If that continues, chances are greater that the storm will pass east of New England, causing relatively minor problems.
If Henri blows up bigger, though, it could smack right into southeastern New England. Right now, it seems the chances of the smacking into New England scenario is not as great as a close miss. But there's still a decent chance, so let's keep our eye out! More details coming on Henri tomorrow in this space.
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