Henri Already Causing Damage, Getting Worse Through The Day

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Henri closing in
on New England Sunday morning 

Now that Tropical Storm Henri is having direct impacts, there's almost too much to write about this morning.  

I'll give you an early update now with subsequent  updates throughout the event.

Henri was a hurricane earlier this morning with top winds of 75 mph.  It was "downgraded" to a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph, but don't focus on the "downgrade," because it isn't really,  Doesn't matter if it's a low end hurricane or high end tropical storm, the effects on people are the same.

At 5 a.m. the center of Henri was about 80 miles southeast of Montauk, Long Island or about 120 miles south of Providence, Rhode Island.  It was moving a little west of due north with a forward speed of 18 mph. That's a little slow for a New England tropical system and it will slow down a lot more once it makes land fall

More on that in a bit because that will have implications for some serious flooding. 

Outer rain bands have already been sweeping through southern New England as of dawn. Conditions will deteriorate there through the morning ahead of an expected landfall late this morning or early this afternoon near the eastern tip of Long Island and somewhere near the Connecticut/Rhode Island border.

 The drama of storm surges and high winds on Long Island and in southern New England will be relatively brief but destructive. Storm surges of a around three feet on Long Island and Connecticut shores will be destructive, especially on low lying barrier islands like Fire Island.

The winds will take down countless trees, and power outages will certain affect over 1 million homes and businesses.  The power in some areas will stay off all week, and an oppressive heat wave is forecast for the next several days in this area.

The winds won't be strong enough to damage that many houses on its own, but countless homes in, say, Connecticut will sustain serious damage from falling trees.

The main story with Henri will be potentially catastrophic inland flooding. The winds of Henri will die back fairly quickly later today and tonight as the storm slowly works its way into the heart of New England. 

Tropical systems lose their wind quickly once inland, but the torrential rains live on long after the gales have lost their punch. 

The rain issues area already happening and will get worse.

Henri's outer circulation latched on to moisture pooling to its west to give New York City an incredible downpour overnight. They had 4.45 inches in five hours,  and about two inches of it came within an hour.

As you might imagine, there was a LOT of flash flooding in the New York City metro area last night,  with plenty of streets closed and cars inundated.  As of early this morning that western fringe stuff from Henri was causing a lot of flash flooding in New Jersey.

That downpours in New York last night is a hint of the kind of flood danger Henri will cause in southwestern New England and southern New York today and tomorrow. Rainfall of three to six inches, with local amounts to 10 inches, are still expected in the Catskills and Hudson Valley of New York, Connecticut, western and central Massachusetts, and yes, far southern Vermont.

It has been wet down in this region, so I would expect some terrible flooding.  A few areas in the Catskills and southwestern New England could have Irene-like flooding. 

VERMONT IMPACTS

The further south you go in Vermont, the more dangerous Henri will be.

As I mentioned in past posts, the expected slow forward pace of Henri is very, very weird, and very, very dangerous.  That 18 mph forward speed from this morning will slow to less than 10 mph once inland. 

Tropical Storm Henri had already helped bring tropical
air north to Vermont by Saturday, helping create
this Florida-like sky over Colchester.

The National Hurricane Center forecast map early this morning had the center of Henri near Brattleboro at 2 a.m. Monday, and had it only advance to about White River Junction by 2 p.m. Monday. An elite long distance runner could easily outpace Henri's expected trek.

Of course, you don't focus on just the exact track, but the effects of the storm in a wide area. Areas to the west of a tropical system in this part of the world get the heaviest rains, so that's what's worrying. 

Vermont Emergency Management says they've opened up their Emergency Operations Center to monitor the storm and respond to any issues. My guess is they WILL respond to some issues in southern Vermont sometime between now and Monday night.  

Vermont's southernmost two counties are in the most flood danger from this.

The remains of Henri is still expected to take a sharp turn east at White River Junction or thereabouts and slowly stagger off to the Gulf of Maine. But that won't happen until later Monday and early Tuesday.

That means there's also a flood risk from Rutland and Windsor counties north almost to Route 2. While it doesn't look like the flooding there will be as bad as points south, you still need to take things seriously.  Locally torrential downpours could cause some dangerous flash floods.

Sometimes, bands of particularly heavy rain set up to the north and west of a dying tropical system. This could happen in south-central or central Vermont tomorrow. It's hard to tell in advance if and where these will set up, but pay attention to any flood warnings that might come out. 

North of Route 2, we'll get some rain out of this, but many places won't get much, as it stands now. There might be some embedded areas of heavy rain here and there in the north, but at this point the threat of flooding looks fairly low. 

Stay tuned for updates, though! 

However, it will be close enough to g