Saturday Evening Henri Update: Southern Vermont/Hudson Valley/Southwest New England Big Flood Threat

Ragged Hurricane Henri continued its march northward Saturday off the East Coast, still ready to batter Long Island, parts of New York and the southwestern half of New England with dangerous storm surges, damaging winds and potentially horrible flash floods.

The expected track of Henri has shifted a wee bit

to the east, but the overall effects will still be the 

same. Bad storm surge, high winds on Long

Island, Connecticut. Serious flash flooding possible

in southern New York, southwestern New England.

Far southern Vermont in play for possible severe

flash flooding

The projected track of Henri has shifted a tiny bit back to the east from its most western proposed track early this morning. But the shifts aren't enough to really change the forecast.  

Be prepared in some areas for a very rough Sunday and or Monday.

There's still some disagreement among the forecast models as to where the heaviest rain will set up. Connecticut, Long Island, the Catskills and the lower Hudson Valley still seem like the most likely targets for dangerous flooding.

However, western and central Massachusetts, southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire are still definitely in play.

Here in Vermont, I'm most worried about the eastern slopes of the southernmost Green Mountains. East winds associated with Henri will force its richly wet air up the slopes, which could release particularly torrential downpours. 

In those areas, small streams and creeks, and other bigger waterways like the North Branch of the Deerfield River, Whetstone Brook, the West River and Saxtons River could really cause trouble. Potentially trouble not seen since the dark days of Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.

That's not guaranteed yet, but just to be on the safe side, if you live in flood prone areas of southern Vermont, I'd get ready.  Couldn't hurt to move some stuff to higher ground, and certainly have a plan to escape. 

Flash flood watches are in effect for Vermont's southernmost two counties. There could be three to six inches of rain with this, with localized areas up to 10 inches, though I think and hope and pray the 10 inches might be a little south of Vermont.  

If a bad flood does come, it will come fast. It'll be a classic dangerous flash flood if it does happen.

Unlike Tropical Storm Irene, it's still looking like parts of Vermont will be spared. Forecasts are still insisting on not all that much rain in northern Vermont, so flooding is unlikely up there. Still, forecasts can change, and there's still a chance of enough rain to prompt flash flood watches in central Vermont. Stay tuned! 

It was brutally hot and humid, especially across the north today, with heat indexes near 100 in the Champlain Valley. It will be almost as bad tomorrow. The possibility of extra cloud cover will keep heat indexes just a little lower, but it will still be too nasty to work outdoors tomorrow.

This is just a brief update. I'll have lots of additional details Sunday morning