Parts Of Vermont AGAIN Hit With Flooding; New Flood Threat Today

Lightning in Ferrisburgh, Vermont Thursday evening
on the northern side of the storm that caused 
severe flash flooding in and near Middlebury.

UPDATE: 11:00  am. FRIDAY

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says they will soon issue a severe thunderstorm warning for likely a large swath of the Northeast.

That area includes central and southern Vermont. 

Stuff is already boiling up in central, northern and western New York, and that will only continue to develop as we head into the afternoon. 

A few spots in this region could see wind gusts to 60 mph and hail the size of quarters or in one or two cases, up to ping pong ball sized.

Most of us won't get it that bad, but a few people will. 

Note that any storms can produce heavy rain and a flash flood watch remains in effect.

Spots of relatively heavy rain this morning didn't help, as that soaked the soil further before any more rains arrive.

Middlebury was really in the bullseye with Thursday's storms. Official measuring sites at two locations in Middlebury measured 6.12 inches and 5.85 inches. One site in Middlebury recorded 5.75 inches in just two hours and 20 minutes, which is incredible!

No wonder there was so much damage in that neck of the woods.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

More flash flooding surprised Vermont Thursday, mostly slamming parts of Addison County with two to as much as six inches of rain in just three hours or less.  

Note that five inches of rain is a LOT, more than you should expect in the entire month of August.  

This rainfall sets the stage for more possible flooding later. today. More on that below.

The new flooding in Addison County Thursday was intense and at some times scary. Three people pulled from a car that had been swept into trees and had water up to the roof in a swift water rescue just south of Middlebury. 

Several washouts closed a section of Route 116 in East Middlebury. A section of heavily traveled Route 7 near the intersections of Route 125 and 116 were closed for a time due to high water. That's the second time this summer that part of Route 7 had to be shut down due to high water. 

In Middlebury, video showed part of Seymour Street inundated with what looked like up to two feet of muddy water. 

Fire and Ice Restaurant in Middlebury posted a Facebook video of an underpass on another section of Seymour Street with several feet of water collecting under the span. A car uphill from the deepest water was stuck in rushing water.   Another video showed Abbey Pond Road looking like a rushing river. 

Even though Addison County did not get the worst of the epic floods of July 10-11, since then, that region has been repeatedly targeted this summer by damaging storms. 

The storm extended into the central Green Mountains. A mud slide closed part of Route 125 in Hancock near the Route 100 intersection. A piece of Route 100 in Rochester was closed by high water. 

WHAT HAPPENED

The storm in Addison, and parts of Windsor Counties was much more intense than many forecasters had expected. 

Torrential rains hammer down in Ferrisburgh, Vermont
Thursday evening from a storm that caused a 
significant flash flood a few miles south around
Middlebury, Vermont. 

As we noted yesterday, the weather pattern was destined to yield surprises.

It had been hoped that a band of light rain that passed through central  Vermont in the late morning and early afternoon Thursday would stabilize the air and prevent many new storms from forming. 

But, in a few cases, they did form.  The one that hit Addison County moved fairly slowly as it emerged from the Adirondacks, where it caused a few problems with high water wind damage and hail.

The Addison County storm was also back building as it moved into Vermont. Back building means that new downpours kept forming on the tail end of the storm as it moved east and southeast.  

Instead of a storm that creates a fairly harmless downpour that lasts less than an hour, you instead got a torrent from the sky that lasted three hours.  So we had another flood with those several inches of rain.  

It was a pretty remarkable storm, as you can see above. I was in Ferrisburgh, on the northern edge of the storm and was impressed by how much lightning there was, and how the torrential downpours would persist just when you thought the sky was brightening and the storm was over. 

The storm was also isolated, limiting itself to its path through Addison and Windsor counties. 

More storms fired up later and swept through most of Vermont overnight, but they were not nearly as intense as the Addison County mess.

MORE FLOODING?

A flood watch is up today for all of Vermont except Grand Isle County. 

Another round of heavy showers and storms will sweep through the state starting by around noon and ending this evening. 

We had the pre-soak last night, so the ground is more saturated, so we could have some local flash flood problems again. 

The good news is most of the storms should zip right along, dumping a half inch or a little more of rain then departing.  That scenario would limit the flash flood potential.

The very bad news is that, in a few spots, we could have some of that dreaded "back building" again that we saw in Addison County last evening. Or multiple storms could hit the same spot during the day. Either way, you'd have a local flash flood issue.

We are of course paying close attention to central Vermont, notably the places in Addison and Windsor counties that got nailed last night. They can't really take on any more water, so if a persistent storm hits there again today, they're screwed. 

There was already an area of fairly heavy rain in the Adirondacks as of 7:30 a.m. heading toward Addison County. Don't know if that will hold together, but it was making me nervous. 

Although everyone in Vermont should be on alert for potential flash flood or severe storm warnings, those of you near and east of Middlebury should really be on your toes. 

Most of us will not see any flash flooding today.  It'll be another scenario that if anything bad develops, it would only be in handful of towns, like last evening. 

The problem is, as always, we don't know in advance which towns. 

In addition to the flooding questions today, some storms could contain damaging winds and/or hail. 

Although an isolated severe thunderstorm could  happen pretty much anywhere in Vermont today, the best chance is from Route 4 south. Once again, there's even a very, very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief spin up tornado in southern Vermont. 

This all gets out of our hair this evening, and we have a pleasant weather weekend shaping up.  Although there might be a little wildfire smoke in the air again. (I know, I know, I'm sick of it, too), the sun will be out most of the time during the day, the humidity will be reasonable and temperatures comfortable. 

 

 

Fred Soaks Vermont Today, Threatens Flooding. Then What Will Henri Do?

UPDATE EARLY AFTERNOON

As the first rain bands from former Tropical Storm Fred

moved into St. Albans, the sun rising in the sky to the 

northeast shined into the rain, causing an 

otherworldly orange glow.   While flooding is unlikely

in St. Albans from Ex-Fred, there is a risk of flash

flooding in the southern two thirds of Vermont today.

Ex-Fred has so far behaved pretty well in Vermont, but we're not necessarily out of the woods yet More on that in a sec.

The storm has NOT been friendly in southern New England and southern New York. It looks like there might have been a couple tornadoes in the Hudson Valley or Catskills, New Jersey and/or Connecticut.

There was also a tornado warning for awhile early this afternoon in some of the North Shore communities near Boston, places like Revere, Lynn, Nahant, Swampscott. Not sure if one touched down or not there.

Flash flooding certainly walloped parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts. Streets were badly flooded around Hartford.  Cars were in water up to their rooftops in at least one road in Worcester, Massachusetts. There's quite a few reports of roads closed, flooded basements and some water rescues in southern New England. 

Some showers will get going in southern and central Vermont now that the steady rain has largely passed. The question now is will those showers be torrential enough to cause local flash floods, or will they be pretty benign. 

As of 1 p.m., the flash flood watch had been lifted for far southern Vermont, but no yet for Rutland and Windsor counties, and in central Vermont.  That's being assessed as I write this. The fact that National Weather Service radar has been down for the past couple of hours is unfortunate and unhelpful.

Congress really needs to appropriate funds to the National Weather Service to drag their technology out of the stone age and into the 21st century. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 Rain started in most of Vermont before dawn, as the remains of Tropical Storm Fred continue to create flooding and storms across the Northeast.  

After spinning up some severe storms and floods to our south in the Mid-Atlantic states, it's New England's turn today.

The biggest zone of worry today will be in central New York, where a few flood warnings are already in effect, then on through central and southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, maybe southern Maine and northern Massachusetts.

Northern Vermont and New York are getting decent rains this morning, but I think things will be fairly well behaved along and north of Route 2. 

The rain moving into these areas from the northern Adirondacks seemed to be intensifying a little as it moved toward Vermont before dawn, but it doesn't look like there will be much of a flood threat.

The heaviest rain band in this batch was just approaching Burlington as of 8:30 this morning. 

It's been drier up north, and the rain in the north is more of a steady drenching, not the torrential downpours that can set up flash flooding.  There might be some minor urban flooding, ponding of water on roads, and maybe a little erosion on steep gravel roads and driveways, but it won't be a huge deal.

Besides, far northern Vermont could still use more rain, so this is good.  My hot take: A little more rain than originally expected up north, but don't worry too much about it. 

Further south, it's looking decidedly less good.  We're not talking Irene-scale destruction, but I am worried areas of flash flooding that could develop during the day.  Ex-Fred has a feeder band coming in from the southeast, bringing tropical moisture northwestward toward central New England.

The moisture will be forced to rise as it hits the higher elevations of western Massachusetts, and southern parts of Vermont and New Hampshire. This wet air has already caused some fairly substantial flash flooding in parts of Connecticut.

The threat with this is local torrential downpours with this feeder band.  Former tropical systems tend to be really efficient rain makers, so this could be a real threat.

I'd say the highest threat of any flash flooding would be especially on south and east facing slopes of the southern Green Mountains. 

After an initial burst of rain this morning, some predictions indicate clouds might thin for a bit over southern Vermont. That would help trigger thunderstorms. Given the very humid air brought north by Ex-Fred, the rain could be absolutely torrential with these, adding to the risk of local flash floods.

If the heaviest rain is able to work its way into Addison County and maybe Orange County, there could be some real flooding worries there, too. That's because a band of soaking rain set up there yesterday morning.  It's already soggy, so if a lot of rain falls, the water will rise pretty readily. 

I'm already seeing some flash flood warnings pop up in the western Adirondacks, so we'll need to keep an eye on whether that heavy rain makes it to central Vermont.

If your area goes under a flash flood warning, take it VERY seriously.  Move to higher ground if you're in a flood prone spot. Don't drive through water or debris on roads. You won't know until it's too late whether the road is washed out. Also, it takes surprisingly little water to sweep a car away.

If you don't believe my story about flash floods being dangerous, consider this:  When Fred moved through the mountains of North Carolina the other day, walls of water and mud swept down creek beds and hollows and into towns. At this point, 35 people are unaccounted for. 

Things are pretty grim in North Carolina.

Ex-Fred's rains seem to be moving a little faster than at least I expected, so I think the worst of the rain will be over by mid to late afternoon. That will just leave us stuck in the humid air for a few more days. 

And.....we need to watch another tropical system

HENRI AND NEW ENGLAND

Since we're focusing on Ex-Fred, I won't get into the next system that much today.  However, Tropical Storm Henri is lurking southwest of Bermuda.  It was just shy of hurricane status this morning, with top winds of 70 mph.

It is currently forecast to grow into a hurricane, and could threaten New England Sunday or Monday.

Upper level winds right now are hindering Henri's development. If that continues, chances are greater that the storm will pass east of New England, causing relatively minor problems.

If Henri blows up bigger, though, it could smack right into southeastern New England. Right now,  it seems the chances of the smacking into New England scenario is not as great as a close miss. But there's still a decent chance, so let's keep our eye out! More details coming on Henri tomorrow in this space.