The Tropics; Bonnie On A Two Ocean Cruise; Colin Pulls A Surprise

Tropical Storm Bonnie emerging into the 
Pacific Ocean after crossing Nicaragua from
the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday.

 As we start July, the tropics tend to get a little more active as we ramp up toward the heart of hurricane season in a month or two.

That Wannabe Tropical Storm Bonnie finally got its act together and became official Tropical Storm Bonnie on Friday. It smacked into Nicaragua last night and is dumping heavy rain there. Flooding and mudslides are likely causing big trouble there as I write this. 

Bonnie then did something odd.    Normally, when tropical storms and hurricanes hit Central America or Mexico from the Caribbean Sea, they quickly get torn apart and die over steep mountains. You might get some remnant energy that makes it to the Pacific, and on a few occasions, that might develop into a new Pacific tropical storm.

The western Pacific has different names every year for tropical storms and hurricanes than the Atlantic Ocean. So if remnant energy from a former Atlantic tropical storm gives birth to a new tropical storm in the Pacific, it gets a new name.   

Bonnie is a rare rule breaker.  Bonnie threaded  the needle between mountain ranges as it moved through Nicaragua. It crossed a narrow part of central America that includes large Lake Nicaragua. So it didn't get weaker as fast as it normally would.

Late Saturday morning, Bonnie emerged over the Pacific Ocean as an intact tropical storm.   To remove confusion, Bonnie will keep her name as it moves northwestward.

This is the first tropical storm to pull this Atlantic to Pacific stunt since Otto in 2016. Had Bonnie fallen apart completely, but the storm's left over energy or upper level circulation made it into the Pacific Ocean, it would have been re-named Darby. 

Weak Tropical Storm Colin formed unexpectedly
last night along the South Carolina coast. 

In any event, Bonnie is forecast to move northwestward, staying south and west of Mexico. It could become a hurricane once it's well offshore. 

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Colin was a surprise storm that formed along the coast of South Carolina last night. 

I noticed a suspicious looking swirl of clouds and rain moving off the Georgia coast yesterday. Few expected this swirl to blow up into a tropical storm, especially since atmospheric conditions were not great for development and the center of this little storm was hugging the coast.

But form it did! Still, Colin is not expected to amount to much. Northwesterly winds aloft are pushing the roughest weather with Colin offshore. The fact that Colin is still hugging the coast and those northwesterly high level winds will persist, this thing won't strengthen much more, if at all.

Colin is breaking rules in another way. In much of coastal South Carolina today, Colin was pulling in dry air from the northwest. Because of this, despite the proximity of Colin, it's been a pretty nice beach day for the coast of South Carolina. Not what you'd expect with a tropical storm lurking around you. 

Finally, a cold front heading southward should blow apart what remains of Colin around Monday. 

 

Big Vermont/NY Downpours Monday, And Wannabe Bonnie Takes Far Southern Cruise

Torrential rains Monday morning wash cars in a 
Burlington, Vermont parking lot. The city recieved
1.2 inches of rain in the storms that passed through. 

 Yeah, it really did pour like crazy in parts of Vermont yesterday morning, didn't it?

Those were some impressive rainfall totals, though not something record breaking.  But it's a sign of the season.  If you're going to get a gullywasher, it's probably going to be in the summer. 

Parts of northern New York and western and northern Vermont got a quick dose of more than an inch of rain. Most of the rain fell an hour or two.   

Gully washers, they were. The most rain reported in the region was right at two inches in Essex, New York. The biggest rainfall totals in Vermont included 1.74 inches in Johnson and 1.68 inches in Hinesburg.

Burlington received 1.2 inches of rain. That wasn't even the wettest June 27 on record. That honor goes to the 1.45 inches that fell on June 27, 1970.

Because of previous heavy rains in northern New York last week, a flood warning was issued for a time in parts of the Adirondacks. I don't have any reports of serious damage.

Much like the heavy rain in New York last week, the downpours weakened some as they crossed over Vermont.  By the time the showers reached the Connecticut River Valley, totals diminished to less than a half inch in most places. 

Plus, all but the extreme northwest corner of Vermont  mostly missed out on the rains last week. So, the National Weather Service issues no flood warnings in Vermont. Instead, they covered the band of rain by issuing special weather statements, warning of torrential rain, poor visibility on roads, hydroplaning and ponding of water on streets and highways. All of which of course happened. 

The one thing we'll need to watch out for now is beach closings along Lake Champlain. Downpours like the one we had Monday unleash waves of phosphorous and other yucko stuff into the lake. Sewage treatment plants also get overwhelmed in these downpours, and that flows in the lake. Lovely!

Downpours such as Monday's might contribute to additional algae blooms in the lake later this summer. To note again, the magnitude of these downpours wasn't all that unusual. If there are problems in Lake Champlain because of Monday's rains, it will be caused by pollution, plain and simple. 

We might get something of a repeat of Monday's downpours Friday night. Very much like Monday morning, moisture will pool along and just ahead of a strong cold front passing through. Severe thunderstorms don't look like they are in the cards, but at this point, it looks like there's potential for additional torrential downpours in spots. We shall see

WANNABE BONNIE'S WAY SOUTHERN CRUISE

A system that's trying to become a tropical storm is current east of the southern Windward Islands and east-northeast of Venezuela. It has top winds of 40 mph, which would (barely) qualify it as a tropical storm. But it doesn't have a well defined circulation, so it's currently being called Potential Tropical Cyclone 2.   

The projected path of Bonnie is awfully far south, near
Venezuela. Usually, these westward moving storms
are later in the season, and much closer to Puerto Rico,
Dominican Republic and Cuba. 

That's a mouthful, so I'm calling it Wannabe Bonnie, because if it does become a tropical storm, they'll name it Bonnie. 

As Dennis Mersereau of DAMweather.com notes, the weird thing about Wannabe Bonnie is how far south it is, and will be. It's forecast to move westward, scraping along the northern coast of Venezuela. 

Most tropical systems are much further north, close to places like Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. This would be a near record south track. 

Plus, this is pretty early for a tropical storm heading westbound in the deep tropics, Mersereau reports. Early season tropical systems usually form even further north, often along the decaying edges of dying cold fronts coming off the Southeast or Gulf Coasts.

The National Hurricane Center says Wannabe Bonnie could well turn into a full-fledged hurricane once it gets past Venezuela and enters the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea. If that happens, the storm will eventually become a big threat to Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama