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| There's a slight risk, level two of three of severe storms today in the yellow shading. That includes southern Vermont and central New York. Dark green indicates the possibility of just very isolated high wind gusts with storms. |
The disparity was great again on Wednesday. In Burlington, the high was 53 degrees. Montpelier reached 57. But in Rutland, it was a summertime high of 77. Bennington reached 79 degrees.
We face yet another day of wide ranging temperatures today. And much like on Tuesday. we're in for another soaking rain north, and the risk of severe storms south.
The front settled in south-central Vermont overnight. It will slowly lift back north as a warm front, but it probably won't reach far northern Vermont. So it will stay coolish and damp up there. The southern half of Vermont will have another summery day, one that will feel vaguely humid.
Highs will range from just under 60 degrees at the Canadian border to around 80 degrees in the valleys near the Massachusetts border.
SEVERE STORMS SOUTH?
I'm slightly more bullish on strong to severe storms in southern Vermont than I was Tuesday, when there were a few strong storms in far southern Vermont. But there are also factors that might prevent a lot of trouble. If the front moves a little north too slowly, it might not clear up and warm up enough to destabilize the air.
But since the next disturbance will be approaching Vermont later in the day than on Tuesday, I think we can at least fire up some strong storms in the southern half of the state. The best chance of any severe storms would be along and south of Route 4, where NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a level 2 out of 5 risk level.
The risk of an isolated strong wind gust or hail from a thunderstorm extends up to about Route 2, but ig anything happens in that zone, it should be very isolated. Unless our weather front surprises us and leaps further north than expected.
Always beware of weird springtime warm fronts.
The later storm arrival schedule today will give time for storms to develop in western and central New York and reach Vermont during peak heating. The storms will probably actually be stronger in New York state, but a few could reach the Green Mountain State at severe levels.
That could mean pockets of damaging wind, and hail. There's a very slight chance some supercell thunderstorms could form just ahead often main batch storms. That means once again, there's a very, very low, but not quite zero chance of a brief spinup tornado. But don't focus on that. Focus on the potential wind damage in spots from storms.
Some of the storms should also have torrential downpours. But the storms' forward motion will be fast enough to prevent much in the way of flooding.
As always, this will be hit and miss. You won't know if a bad storm is headed your way until you see the dark clouds approaching, hear the thunder, and also maybe hear the weather warnings.
Especially if you're going to be outdoors have a way to hear any possible warnings or weather statements.
WET NORTH
For northern Vermont, it'll be another wet day. Areas of fog and drizzle early this morning should lift somewhat, leading to relatively dry weather in the late morning and early afternoon. That's your chance to do anything you need to do outdoors.
There might be a few spot light showers anytime after noon or so in the north. But the bulk of the rain should start to arrive around mid afternoon. The late afternoon and early evening should be quite wet in the north. The rain will taper to areas of drizzle and fog again later tonight.
Even though northern Vermont will be along or north of that slow, nearly stalled front, that part of the state could still see some non-severe thunderstorms embedded with all the rain.
Most of the north should see another half to three quarters of an inch of rain. A local downpour might drive the total to an inch in isolated spots. Again, even though it's wet and rivers are running kind of high, it appears the worst we can expect is very minor flooding.
EVENING THINGS OUT
The disturbance causing today's potentially rough weather will finally be driven out. Friday and Saturday look much more normal across the entire state. Skies will at least partly clear, and we won't see the big range in temperatures we've gotten used to this week. Highs should range from 60 far north to 70 southern Vermont valleys. So a nice day!
Saturday looks mild and breezy ahead of the next cold front, which will be coming in from the west. Enjoy Saturday, it might be the last nice day we have for awhile.
SHARPLY COLDER
The cold front on Sunday really means business. It will throw some rain at us Saturday night. By Sunday, it will be downright chilly as temperatures during the day stay steady or fall through the 40s.
There also might be a cost to all that warm weather in southern Vermont. Plants and trees down there will have really advanced prematurely into spring with all the balmy weather down there. In the north, spring will not have gotten as far along, since it's been cooler.
Monday looks frigid, with many of us not getting out of the 30s for highs. We'll have a hard freeze statewide, which could damage buds and sprouts, especially in southern Vermont where it's been really spring.
We'll keep an eye out on that, but for now, we'll focus on the weather today. Be aware of those incoming storms central and south today. They could be doozies
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