Vermont Escapes Storms For Once. Also, Fog Season Has Arrived, And Gorgeous Saturday

Weather radar late Friday afternoon showed some fairly
strong thunderstorms in eastern New York, but they 
barely brushed the extreme southwestern tip of 
Vermont, so for a change, no severe weather for us. 

 Some fairly strong storms developed in central and eastern New York yesterday with the latest weather disturbance, but Vermont for a change was left unscathed. There was some rain in southwestern parts of the state, but we ended our streak of three consecutive severe weather days. 

One strong looking storm (at least the way it looks on radar) barely brushed Pownal on the extreme southwestern tip of Vermont. That was it.

I've also noticed we've gotten into fog season in Vermont. In the late summer and the first half of autumn, the nights start getting cooler but the ground, streams, ponds, marshes and lakes are warm. 

The cool air comes in contact with the moisture emitting from the warmer soil and water. The cool air makes the moisture condense into locally dense fog.

We had areas of fog yesterday morning and even more so as we started today. The National Weather Service in South Burlington put out a special weather statement noting that locally dense fog was even more widespread than usual, so care needed to be taken on the roads.

The good news is this early morning fog always burns off quickly. By the time you read this, any fog in your area will be gone, or will be very shortly. We'll end up with our well-advertised gorgeous day. 

The forecast is the same as how I outlined it yesterday. Sunny, with highs generally in the 70s, very low humidity and maybe a slight, pleasant breeze from the north 

SUNDAY

Another pretty nice day, especially since they've postponed the arrival of some rain until a little later.  We'll start the day with clear skies. Except river valleys especially will see some early morning dense fog again. Like I said, tis the season.

Clouds should slowly  increase during the afternoon. But since the sun will stay out longer than earlier forecasts indicated, the National Weather Service has bumped up expected high temperatures a little. Most of us on valley floors should make it to near 80 degrees.

Some showers could arrive during the evening. 

SUNDAY NIGHT

If you're like Eddie Rabbit and you love a rainy night, you'll enjoy Sunday night. The entire state should enjoy a decent soaking. The uncertain part of the forecast is where potentially heavier rain might set up.  The National Weather Service thinks there might be a few streaks of an inch to an inch and a half totals somewhere in Vermont, but are unsure where.

Don't be surprised if you hear the roar of a downpour on your roof or a rumble of thunder, as you might be in one of those streaks of more drenching rains. If you end up outside of one of those areas of downpours, you should stills see a a quarter to a half inch of rain. 

Since this particular system looks like it will affect the entire state, then places that are too dry and avoided all of our recent wild thunderstorms should get some needed rain. Unless this storm pulls another surprise on us. 

MONDAY

The rain should taper off early in the day, and we'll be left with a damp, humid feel to the air for a few hours at least. An approaching cold front will take advantage of that moisture to set off some showers and maybe some garden variety thunderstorms. 

So far, we're not expecting any severe weather. The showers should tend to taper off in the afternoon and evening and we'll feel that humidity diminish again as drier air comes in from Canada.

REST OF NEXT WEEK

Basically seasonable weather as the hot and in many areas oppressively humid air stays locked in the souther, central and western United States. We should keep with our pretty average temperatures for mid-August, with no signs of terrible humidity creeping in just yet. Our next chance of showers is probably Wednesday or Thursday. 

Weird Rain Band Hit Parts Of Vermont Saturday, Showery Weather To Continue Until Possible Midweek Break

Rain to the north from a persistent rain band. This is
looking north along Interstate 89 in Colchester, VT

 Saturday was an odd weather day in at least parts of Vermont. We knew there would be showers and rumbles of thunder around as disturbances moved down into the Green Mountain State from Quebec. 

But one band of rain, only maybe 20 miles wide most of the time, enter Vermont's northwest corner and went southeastward into central Vermont. 

 And it stayed there from late morning until well into the evening.  Had this occurred in a very warm, very humid atmosphere, there probably would have been a terrible flash flood within that band.

Luckily, the airmass couldn't hold that much water, so the rain was light, with bursts of moderate rain and very quick downpours. The rainfall tended to get lighter the further south and east the rain band went. 

But still, it was strange. Here in St. Albans, we were right in the path of this narrow band, and we received  1.21 inches of rain from late morning until well into the evening. During that time, Burlington, just 30 miles to the south, got nothing. And the rain in St. Albans was constant.  It was reduced to a sprinkle at times, but at other times it came down at a brisk pace. 

National Weather Service radar from about 5:30 p.m. 
Saturday. It shows a persistent, nearly stationary rain 
band extending from well northwest of Montreal in 
Quebec southeastward through Vermont into 
New Hampshire. Though the band weakened in
eastern Vermont and New Hampahire. 

Rainfall from this band extended up into Quebec, where amounts were reported to be heavier than in Vermont. 

I'm not sure why that band didn't move. It might have been a weird deformation zone, which is an area on the outskirts of a storm in which a band of heavy precipitation sets up. But the storm itself was way up in the Canadian Maritimes, so that doesn't make much sense.  

Anyway, my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans has now collected. 3.26 inches of rain since Thursday morning. It's pretty sodden out there. 

And more rain is in the forecast. For all of Vermont, not just St. Albans, of course!

TODAY

We're in for the same type of weather we had on Saturday, though perhaps minus the stalled rain band. 

There might not be quite as many showers and storms as yesterday, but many of us, especially central and north, will get wet today. Rainfall amounts should be in the tenth to a quarter inch range. Southern Vermont should see less than a tenth of an inch. 

Some places will have heavier showers or garden variety thunderstorms, and may get hit repeatedly. Those few and far between spots could get up to an inch of rain. But that will be the exception. 

Highs today in the valleys should hit the low 70s again, with a few mid 70s in banana belt places like the southern Champlain valley and the valleys of far southern Vermont. 

MONDAY

Southernmost Vermont has been missing out on most of the heavy rain, and they could actually use a good dousing. They might be in luck Monday afternoon and evening. 

A small, but very wet storm system is forecast to move about Indiana tonight to somewhere near New York City by Tuesday night. But there are still some questions about its eventual path. If it goes further south than expected, all but areas of Vermont pretty close to the Massachusetts border will miss out on most of the rain. 

If it goes a little further north than expected, a substantial rain could make it as far north as Route 2. 

As it stands now, areas south of Route 4 could get 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain out of this from Monday afternoon to early Tuesday morning. Central Vermont could get a quarter to a half inch. Soggy areas near the Canadian border might get a break and see little rain out of this. 

These amounts are subject to change depending on how forecasts get updated.

TUEDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

This will sound to many like good new: The middle of the upcoming week looks mostly dry in Vermont.  Fingers crossed.

The skies should clear Tuesday for a relatively sunny afternoon. Wednesday looks sunny, too. Some clouds and showers might return later in the day. 

The air should be summery without being hot. Highs will be in the 75 to 83 degree range all three days, depending mostly on elevation. Lows will be in the comfortable 50s to low 60s. 

More showers and maybe thunderstorms look like they'll return late in the week and next weekend, but it's too soon to say whether the rain will be heavy and widespread, or more scattered and light.  

Not Necessarily "Nice" Vermont Weather In The Traditional Sense, But We Need The Rain And Gloom

After a long winter of snow prediction maps, it's nice to
post rain prediction maps. If this is accurate, most of us
should see an inch of rain by the end of the day Friday.

The Vermont weather forecast for today and tomorrow is great for people who prefer to stay indoors anyway. But not so much for those who like to spend time out in their gardens. 

But those gardens need drinks of water and those should get a Big Gulp serving today and tomorrow. 

For now anyway, the predicted amount of rain is pretty generous. This morning through Friday morning, the National Weather Service is predicting an inch of rain, give or take for most of Vermont. 

The Northeast Kingdom will probably get a little less than that. Some spots in central Vermont could close in on an inch and a half.

Of course, I'm sort of counting those proverbial chickens before they hatch. The arrangement of little storms and moisture flows over the next couple of days is touch and go and a little uncertain, so a lot can go wrong to cheat us out of a soaking rain. 

But if this rainy spell turns out as expected, we'l come closer to normal rainfall for this point in the season. 

Vermont still has a bit of a hangover from last year's drought. And precipitation so far this year is just meh, coming up short in most of the state. 

Through yesterday, May 12, Burlington has had 1.13 inches less precipitation than normal. That's not a drought, but it's definitely not sopping wet, either. Montpelier was 1.62 inches behind schedule in the rain department for the year so far. 

Rutland is even worse, running 2.3 inches under what we should have gotten up to this point in the year. North Springfield, an area of the state that is still official in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, is short 4.36 inches of rain as of yesterday. 

Only the southwest and northeast corners of Vermont are closer to normal. St. Johnsbury as of yesterday was within a quarter inch or so of normal. Bennington was short by only about two thirds of an inch. 

The expected rain this week will narrow, but not erase the precipitation gap. 

Let's do the details:

TODAY: 

It dawned cloudy today, as expected. It was still a little frosty early this morning in eastern Vermont, but not anything particularly damaging to crops and gardens. 

It was in the 40s in the Champlain Valley. This might be a spoiler to the extended forecast, but - unless there's some real surprises in our future - I think the Champlain Valley's threat of frost has passed until this coming fall. The rest of Vermont, well, just hang in there. 

Rain was moving into Vermont as we approached the 9 a.m. hour. It looked like rain was coming down a pretty good clip in New York state, but I think it might lighten up a little once it embraces the Green Mountain State. 

Still, it''ll be a rainy, chilly day. Highs should only get into the 50s. We'll probably get a quarter inch of rain, maybe a little less in spots. The rain will tend to diminish this evening and early tonight. At least temporarily. 

TOMORROW

Also looking rainy. But there will be a bit of dance going on between the decaying upper level low that is now coming in from the west, a small storm we think will develop in southern New England tomorrow, and a stronger storm well offshore. 

But the thinking is that weird atmospheric dance should shove some Atlantic moisture northwestward to us here in Vermont, giving a continued soaking rain. The rain should be even heavier in eastern New England, but I don't expect anybody in the region to see any flooding. Just a good soaking. Again, fingers crossed.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Ahhh the warmth arrives. Friday should show slow improvement, as clouds and maybe morning showers should give way to some sun, especially north and west. It should get into the 60s, so not too bad!

And then, a warm weekend! Yes, that means highs right up there in the 70s. Balmy! almost summer-like, aside from the cool but not cold nights. And spoiler: Some forecasts bring us into the 80s by Tuesday. 

In other words, we get a nice reward after the chilly, rainy weather we're in for. 

 

Black Fly Season Off To Rough Vermont Start. Here's Why And What To Do

Black flies are the scourge of spring in Vermont, 
especially this year with all the recent wet weather. The
community of Adamant, Vermont does try to make
the best of it with an annual festival. 

 I mentioned in passing in yesterday morning's post that the black flies in Vermont are awful this year. 

Very, very awful.  

Black flies are probably Vermont's least favorite tradition from mid spring to early summer. We want to be out there smelling the lilac blooms and collecting early season salad fixings from the garden, only to be swarmed by these biting little buggers. 

I've  noticed some black fly seasons are worse than others.  There's good reason why black flies season 2023 is off to such an annoying start.

As the Green Mountain Club explains, black flies tend to lay eggs in flowing water. With all the rain we've had recently, there's plenty of flowing water. Even in places where there usually isn't much flowing water. 

The conditions are perfect for this, so they're swarming. Some of you in colder parts of Vermont probably haven't noticed yet, as it's still early in the season. But beware. They're coming.  Green Mountain Club explains here why black flies are often worse than other annoying bugs:

"These biting insects will swarm humans and livestock, biting around the head, hair, and ears. Black fly bites are painful, as the bugs cut into the skin and lap up blood that pools into the wound. Bites appear as puncture wounds or a huge swelling. Common reaction rations include lymph node swelling and skin rash."

 Black flies are most active on cloudy, humid days and just before storms, which explains why this week has been such a pain. (As you've noticed, it's been cool and damp, with frequent showers and scattered downpours).

They're also most active mid to late morning and late afternoon and early evening. I always pray for windy weather when I'm outdoors during black fly season.  The gusts tend to overwhelm these tiny gnat-like attackers and keep them at bay. Sometimes. 

Insect repellents containing DEET seem to ward off mosquitoes, deer flies and the like. But it doesn't seem to have much effect on black flies. At least in my experience.  Some people say they have a bit of success with lavender, vanilla extract, pine branch extract and citronella. 

Wearing long pants and long sleeve shirts help ward off black flies, especially if you tuck in your shirt. Of course, that doesn't  help if you're out there doing physical activity in the sun, as you'll overheat with all those clothes on.  Wear light colored  clothing too.  Black flies, true to their name, are attracted to the color black.  Which is my favorite color to wear. Go figure.

Many species of black flies don't bite. But they constantly try to get into your ears, eyes and mouth, which is super frustrating.  While the following doesn't happen in humans, we can relate, given how thick the swarms are: Black flies have been known to suffocate birds, chickens and other animals because they're so numerous they clog respiratory tracts. 

On the bright side, black flies don't transmit diseases to humans, like mosquitoes and ticks do. 

 We're about to enter a multi-day dry spell in Vermont, which might reduce the amount of flowing water out there. But, too late. The damage is done. We're stuck with a lot of black flies through the spring and early summer.  There will be plenty of water left for the bugs to keep reproducing, too. A wet spring is good, except for the black flies. All that water out there on the landscape won't be going away anytime soon. 

There isn't much we can do about the existence of black flies, other than hibernate inside. But who wants to do that now that winter is over and spring is blooming with abundance?  I suppose we can take some advice from the tiny Vermont community of Adamant.

Adamant, an unincorporated village within the town of Calais, holds an annual Black Fly Festival, usually on the first Saturday of June. This year's event is scheduled for June 3. It features a parade, black fly inspired treats and other events.

I guess the village of Adamant is telling us if you can't beat the black flies, join 'em.