Shifting Weather Patterns Bring Weather Chaos To Much Of Nation, But Just Strange Stuff In Vermont

My yard in St. Albans, Vermont looks much more like
it should in March than February as warm weather
continues. 

 Weather patterns are slowly shifting around in the United States, and that's bringing some rough conditions to large swaths of the nation.

Colder, stormier conditions are gradually spreading from the West Coast and those conditions will probably eventually hit New England, but it will take awhile to get here. The South is also looking prone to occasional bouts of severe weather in the South. 

We'll get into what'll happen here in Vermont in a little bit, but first, we'll hit some real weather drama spots in the U.S. 

Although this is certainly not the most extreme weather the U.S.  has ever faced, there's a lot going on to keep meteorologists on their toes.

WINTER STORM

A double shot of winter storms is bringing rough winter weather from Arizona and Nevada all the way to the western Great Lakes.

Snow flurries dusted parts of the Las Vegas area on Valentine's Day, and hard freeze warnings are up for much of southern Arizona. 

The first of the two storms brought a blizzard to the Red River Valley on the North Dakota/Minnesota border. Numerous cars were reportedly trapped overnight on and near Interstate 29 north of Fargo. Parts of Interstates 29 and 94 were ultimately closed. 

The second of the two storms moving across the U.S. has prompted a stripe of winter storm warnings stretching from Arizona to Wisconsin,

TORNADOES/SEVERE STORMS

South of the cold air, more tornadoes and severe thunderstorms are expected today and tomorrow in what has been a very busy winter for such storms. This January had the third highest tornado total in the U.S. for the first month of the year since at least 1950.

Severe thunderstorms could extent, oddly for this time
of year, as far north as western New York tomorrow.

Today, the core of the tornado threat is in parts of northeast Texas, and sections of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee. This has been a frequent trouble spot for dangerous storms this winter. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says there could be a couple strong tornadoes in the mix later today.

The severe weather threat gets a little strange for this early in the season tomorrow. The threat of severe thunderstorms extends as far north as Buffalo, New York. The highest risk for tornadoes, some of them strong, are in Mississippi and Alabama.

As you go further north, the tornado threat will gradually diminish, but straight line winds will be the bigger risk. 

OTHER ISSUES

Unlike in most of the rest of the U.S. the warm weather seems likely to continue in the Southeast through the remainder of the month. 

This sets the Southeast up for trouble. The advance of spring is already way, way ahead of normal there, and this will continue under the oddly mild conditions. Almost inevitably, a sharp cold front will invade this area of prematurely blooming crops, and that would lead to huge losses to crops like peaches. 

The warm weather also makes the Southeast more prone to a continued risk of severe storms and possible tornadoes beyond what's going on today and tomorrow. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

It's been a very March-like February in Vermont, and that will continue for about another week or so.

Yesterday was a classic March day for the Green Mountain State, with a little "sugar snow" amid subfreezing temperatures early in the morning. This was followed by a sunny, warm day. Perfect for maple syrup production.

I notices the sugarbush next to my St. Albans, Vermont house was abuzz with early season activity yesterday.

Winds

Today and tonight bring sone March winds to Vermont. One burst of wind was hitting this morning, with south winds gusting to as high as 40 mph in parts of the Champlain Valley.

Another burst of winds tonight, this time from the southwest, could bring 45 mph or more gusts to the east slopes of the Green Mountains.  There could be a few power outages with this, but it won't be super widespread.

Winds will turn gusty from the northwest on Friday. 

Temperature Shifts

Another classic March thing in Vermont is wide temperature swings from warm to cold back to warm again. This seems to be coming a month early, too. 

Today looks like it will be the warmest of the bunch, rising to the low 50s in many spots this afternoon. That's flirting with record high temperatures. (The record high today in both Burlington and Montpelier  is 55 degrees). 

It'll be almost as warm, but less windy in Vermont on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. 

That's the one helping with the winter storm out in the middle of the nation, and the severe weather going as far north as Buffalo.

We will see neither severe weather or a full-blown winter storm. Instead, it looks like some fairly light rain and mixed precipitation Thursday night, then trending toward snow as the cold air rushes in.  It's possible we could hear a rumble of thunder Thursday night, again, that's way earlier than normal for the season in Vermont. 

For the third Friday in a row, Vermont will see temperatures fall during the day as another quick shot of chilly air comes in. This one will be colder than the glancing blow of chilly air last week. On the other hand, it will be much warmer than the first Arctic blast we had back on February 3 and 4. 

Snow on the back side of the cold front could mess with the Friday morning commute, but that will taper off later in the day.

After a cold Saturday morning, with lows in the single numbers, the temperature will zoom back up to the unseasonably warm 40s by Sunday and Monday. I'm getting dizzy from the rises and falls here. 

At this point, it looks like our warm weather pattern we've seen most of this winter will come to at least a temporary end on Tuesday. 

Long range forecasts are tricky, but it does seem that temperatures for the remainder of February after next Tuesday will be mostly near or below normal.  This chillier pattern looks like it might last into March.  Early indications are this won't be extreme cold, just the usual winter stuff.