Wednesday Evening Vermont Storm Forecast: Some Tweaks But Not Huge Changes

The National Weather Service forecast snow map ticked
up just a little bit with snowfall accumulations from this 
storm. Expect a decent 8 to 14 inches of snow for 
most places north of Route 4. Note this map only
goes to 1 p.m. Thursday, and a couple inches of snow
are likely after that time in much of Vermont. 

Skies over Vermont - as expected -  went from nice deep blue this morning to a high gray overcast by afternoon as that expected winter storm draws closer. 

Also as expected, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has made a few tweaks to the forecast, but in general it's still mostly what we've been expecting for a couple days now. 

Precipitation overnight and early tomorrow looks a little heavier than originally expected over Windsor and Rutland counties. That presents an opportunity for a little extra snow there before sleet mixes in. So, the National Weather Service has extended the winter storm warning a bit further south to cover all of those two counties.

The big thump of snow, which will comprise the bulk of the storm total, is still expected between roughly 11 p.m. tonight and 8 a.m. Thursday. 

Snow rates will get lighter during the day and might even stop at times. It also looks like a little freezing rain and sleet might advance a little further north than early expected. If that happens, it would be a mid-afternoon and early evening type deal. 

The ice will just add a little bit to the mess. It won't accumulate enough to wreck trees and power lines, which is a good thing. Especially considering that very scenario of tree and power line damage is still happening from Iowa to western New York. 

HOW THIS WILL AFFECT YOUR LIFE

I'm sure many of you have prepared for the storm already.  You picked up some groceries, gassed up your car, that sort of thing.  I noticed this afternoon the line at the liquor store was a little longer than usual. 

The storm will blow in between about 7 and 11 p.m., going southwest to northeast across Vermont. 

For the very few of you planning on driving around between, say midnight and 4 a.m. fuggettaboutit. It'll be snowing pretty hard, and the state snow plows don't really do much at that hour. 

For the larger group of people who need to drive to work or take their kids to school during Thursday morning rush hour, you might want to reconsider.  Check your local listings, because a lot of schools will probably be closed.

See if you can work from home. Tell your boss you'll be less frazzled and more efficient if you can work from your comfy home office. If you have to drive in, it's going to take a lot longer than usual, so plan ahead. This won't be blizzard of the century, so the roads will stay open. They'll just be treacherous. 

You're also going to wake up to a vastly different landscape than you saw today. Back in the good old days, before  climate change really became a factor, a snowstorm this time of year was called the "Crown of Winter Storm."

Snow would have been piling up all winter, and a storm this time of year would typically bring us the deepest snow of the winter. After about now the forces of spring would begin to gradually eat away at the snow cover.  

Clouds thicken up Wednesday afternoon over Georgia,
Vermont as a snowstorm approaches. The landscape is
nearly free of snow, which is very strange for this time
of year, but things will look much different by tomorrow.

In many Vermont valleys this year, there's oddly no snow on the ground. If this storm over-performs, I suppose it could be a Crown Of Winter Storm.  The deepest snow all of this winter was 11 inches. If we get a foot, I guess this storm qualifies. 

You might be lulled into a bit of complacency midday.  We'll see a little light snow, sleet or freezing drizzle during the day, but it might not amount to much. It might lead you to think the storm is over. But not really. 

Toward evening, snow, sleet and freezing rain will pick up again. The ice will be most prevalent in central and southern Vermont. But again, it won't be a disaster. Mostly an annoyance. 

The snow or mixed won't come down  nearly as heavily as it will early in the morning. But it will be noticeable. 

The drive back home from work or wherever won't be great, I'll tell you that. 

The snow will be mostly over Friday, aside from snow flurries in the valleys and mildly accumulating snow showers up high. But it will be colder than a witches.... oh never mind, just cold.

The National Weather Service forecast maps indicate 6 to 12 inches of new snow north of Route 4 by 1 p.m. tomorrow. With additional snow Thursday night, storm totals north seem like they'll be in the 8 to 14 inch range.

So it'll be a decent storm for sure, but not a record breaker. South or Route 4, sleet and a little freezing rain should hold totals to six inches or less.  

Highs will barely make into the teens and lows Friday night and Saturday morning still look like they'll be below zero for most of us. 

It'll warm up sort of by Sunday as a weak storm passes by to the north, bringing in some slightly warmer air. 

Another, somewhat more substantial storm seems due Monday night or Tuesday. That storm, at least for now, has trended colder, so we're somewhat more likely to see more snow and less mixed precipitation.

But the weather pattern is volatile, so I'm to hanging my hat on that distant prediction just yet.